US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Frogmella
Posts: 245
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 2:44 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2024 10:05 pm
@frogmella

You might find this article interesting from a reliable think tank.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/co ... al-divorce

The US is no different to any other country. All countries have the right in law to use lethal force in times of civil war being declared by their incumbent governments.

Hell, it doesn’t even have to be a civil war. Look at what happened to the guy on the London tube who was mistaken for a terrorist. Somebody gave an order, they and the people who shot him were never prosecuted. Instead the UK government paid an undisclosed fee to his family. In essence he was mudered by the UK state.

If the US does have another civil war then it will be carnage with 360 million firearms in circulation and untold amounts of explosives. You will have civilians and national guardsmen killing each other when loyalties gets displaced. And that’s even before the police and regular army gets involved.

There is no conspiracy to murder Trump by those in power. It would be stupid to as he would become some sort of martyr and very possibly then escalate to civil war in some shape or form.
This illegitimate US "government" has used every device imaginable to try and destroy Donald Trump. Even going so far as to change established law to allow that mad-woman Jean E Carroll to have a shot at him. SCOTUS is rumoured to be about to throw out the recent NY business-law case and give him back his $500m.

To suggest those really in power in the US are not trying to assassinate him is just..... naivety. Obviously they don't do it themselves, they get their agents to cultivate a local nutter willing to do it for them.

The comparison between US and UK response is ridiculous. the US police already have almost as much firepower at their disposal as does the whole British Army. British police are not routinely armed and neither is the population in general, so a large-scale firearms incident in the UK might well require the deployment of military assets.

The issue date of this recent DoD directive, just before the most divisive election since their civil war, is not. in my opinion, insignificant.

Anyway, we'll all find out over the next few weeks.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

I wasn’t comparing the US/UK response.

As of June 2024 the were 5,681 firearms officers operationally deployable. That’s more than enough to deal with any terrorist attack.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Seems to me that Harris has this in the bag.

Latest poll including margin for error has Trump support between 43% and 49%. The same poll including margin for error has Harris support between 46% and 52%. That suggests it’s hers to lose etc.

Assuming polls are accurate of course.
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 7:47 pm
Seems to me that Harris has this in the bag.

Latest poll including margin for error has Trump support between 43% and 49%. The same poll including margin for error has Harris support between 46% and 52%. That suggests it’s hers to lose etc.

Assuming polls are accurate of course.
If you're right, 2.5 looks quite juicy.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 3990
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 7:47 pm
Seems to me that Harris has this in the bag.

Latest poll including margin for error has Trump support between 43% and 49%. The same poll including margin for error has Harris support between 46% and 52%. That suggests it’s hers to lose etc.

Assuming polls are accurate of course.
Trump 1.68 fav would say otherwise.
greenmark
Posts: 6266
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

None of the posts on here have actually focussed on a single policy. I am guilty too.
This is what Trump has reduced politics to. Slanging matches.
Archery1969
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Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

I think the bookies/betfair have got it wrong.

The US election is not all about who wins the most votes overall, it's about who wins in the right places.
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Archery1969
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You still think Trump should be 1.68 ?
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jamesedwards
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Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:11 pm
You still think Trump should be 1.68 ?
Nope. 1.65 now.

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Archery1969
Posts: 4478
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jamesedwards wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:22 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:11 pm
You still think Trump should be 1.68 ?
Nope. 1.65 now.


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I think allot of people are going to get stung.
Leb
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:41 pm

Has anyone done arbitrage between Polymarket and Betfair? There would constantly be large arbitrage opportunities, but the real question is probably whether Polymarket pays out in the same way as Betfair. It might not be worth risking your entire bankroll if Polymarket makes its own interpretation of the winner :lol:
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Derek27
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Musk seems to be Trump's running mate now. Keep hearing Trump & Musk, nobody even mentions the other guy - even I've forgotten his name. :lol:
greenmark
Posts: 6266
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:17 pm
Musk seems to be Trump's running mate now. Keep hearing Trump & Musk, nobody even mentions the other guy - even I've forgotten his name. :lol:
Honestly, I think Musk is a very clever guy. I don't like him at all. But if he thinks Trump is a better option than Harris I have to take a step back from my personal bias.
Still can't make Trump work for me. Attempted insurrection - The Home of the Brave and Land of the Free. We shall see.
But it looks like Trump doesn't it? I hope the US see what a total nutter he is and reject him.
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Naffman
Posts: 5911
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

greenmark wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2024 3:26 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:17 pm
Musk seems to be Trump's running mate now. Keep hearing Trump & Musk, nobody even mentions the other guy - even I've forgotten his name. :lol:
Honestly, I think Musk is a very clever guy. I don't like him at all. But if he thinks Trump is a better option than Harris I have to take a step back from my personal bias.
Still can't make Trump work for me. Attempted insurrection - The Home of the Brave and Land of the Free. We shall see.
But it looks like Trump doesn't it? I hope the US see what a total nutter he is and reject him.
Musk went for Vivek in the Primary didn't he, grifter for a grifter
Emmson
Posts: 3577
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

I don't have any read on this election at all, there seems to be wishful thinking on both sides.

Biden's economy is strong even with some inflation issues.

I just can't grasp whats going on except that both candidates are very very weak.

I look at the current odds and don't know what to make of them.
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