Trading What I see !?

[rik]

I think a lot of profitable traders don't offer advice for that reason. A lot of new traders either throw it back in their face or ignore the advice altogether so its just a waste of time. My personal favourite is advising people to record their trades.

watch a recording in 4 or 8 times speed is interesting i think, or long term markets even faster.
can get a different feeling of what noise looks like compared to a genuine move

[ShaunWhite]

. So my trade model is 1) this position looks like a good trade entry 2) this position looks like a good trade exit, as you do with manual trading.
Thanks again

We're not a million miles apart. It's just that 2) should read "that looks like a good bet in the opposite direction" rather than a "close". It might even be a flip if the market reverses. Trade what you see, as you say, rather than guess where it'll be in 2mins time.

Manual trading isn't opens and closes because you're building and reducing positions. A tentative back might be followed by a bigger one or you might take out some profit but still have some interest. Then tidy up near the end.

I'm not suggesting it's an easy change of mindset, afterall open and close are words you hear from day 1 but it's a subtle difference that makes a big difference. Sounds like you're on the way though, if you've got an aptitude for tech then really think about harvesting data and building your own "practice mode Guardian" that you can replay it in. Yeah it's a huge job but one you only need to do once and you'll be able to test 100 strategies on 12 months of data every day if you want. Much better than sitting there for 2 weeks and then slightly changing one parameter. I definatly haven't got enough years left for that method.

[Trader Pat]

I think a lot of profitable traders don't offer advice for that reason. A lot of new traders either throw it back in their face or ignore the advice altogether so its just a waste of time. My personal favourite is advising people to record their trades.

watch a recording in 4 or 8 times speed is interesting i think, or long term markets even faster.
can get a different feeling of what noise looks like compared to a genuine move

Exactly, I usually watch trades back at 4x and then just slow it down to normal speed if I see something interesting that I missed in real time.

[Tetras]

That other long term beef I have is when folk say if something goes up something else goes down as if its Eurekas Galore for everyone everywhere. We all know that but if its concurrent knowing it means f*ck all.

Totally agree, made that point a few times myself ... don't know why people bang on about "one up one or more down"! It's not a case of saying "that one has gone up I wonder which will come down?" It's a matter of "that one has gone up I wonder which HAS come down!"

Granted its probably over simplistic advice but its amazing how many people don't take it on board. People can sometimes get tunnel vision and only focus on the runner they're invested in and maybe the 2nd and 3rd favourite and pay no attention to what's going on further down the book and are then left scratching their head wondering how the favourite drifted when the 2nd & 3rd runners barely moved in price.

I think a lot of profitable traders don't offer advice for that reason. A lot of new traders either throw it back in their face or ignore the advice altogether so its just a waste of time. My personal favourite is advising people to record their trades. So often somebody will come along, ask for advice, the advice will be to record your trades and watch them back but 6 months later the same person is asking the same question and if they would have just spent a little time watching their trades back then the answer was probably staring them in the face and they'd have figured it out months earlier.

I think the major thing I'd add to that is timing, without an appreciation of how and when the money arrives, reading the market doesn't mean much. It also needs an understanding of what the potential for a move is. When I started, I'd see a small move, 6 minutes out, lay the 2nd fav and think "hey, I've cracked it", then repeat until I'd lost 20 ticks in a few trades. It can be easy, but markets that are THAT easy aren't every hour. At least, not for me.

[Trader Pat]

I think the major thing I'd add to that is timing, without an appreciation of how and when the money arrives, reading the market doesn't mean much. It also needs an understanding of what the potential for a move is. When I started, I'd see a small move, 6 minutes out, lay the 2nd fav and think "hey, I've cracked it", then repeat until I'd lost 20 ticks in a few trades. It can be easy, but markets that are THAT easy aren't every hour. At least, not for me.

Yeah its very easy to over read and over trade the market BEFORE proper money arrives

[goat68]

I think the major thing I'd add to that is timing, without an appreciation of how and when the money arrives, reading the market doesn't mean much. It also needs an understanding of what the potential for a move is. When I started, I'd see a small move, 6 minutes out, lay the 2nd fav and think "hey, I've cracked it", then repeat until I'd lost 20 ticks in a few trades. It can be easy, but markets that are THAT easy aren't every hour. At least, not for me.

Finding this with my bot, it's hard for it to work out when money is arriving...

If previous race finished 30mins before. When does money arrive? slowly...? not sure?
If previous race finishes 5mins before, it's more obvious when that finishes circa 3mins a money impulse can be expected...?

[ShaunWhite]

Your contributions were always insightful and welcome, even if some people didn't see it that way.

The trouble is it's impossible to please everybody all the time, even if you are right.

Hi I hope you're keeping well.
tbh a lot of my absence has been down to getting obsessed with Sketchup and Blender. The landlord decided to sell the house we were renting, I didn't want to move, so I bought it. Since then I've been planning my "Grand Design" so I'll probably end up moving anyway but only to a caravan on a building site. Fingers crossed the automation keeps pace with the bills or that's going to end up as my permanent home!

[Kai]

Your contributions were always insightful and welcome, even if some people didn't see it that way.

The trouble is it's impossible to please everybody all the time, even if you are right.

+1

There was a visible drop-off in newbie threads especially, there aren't too many selfless posters around with 6k posts so big shoes to fill.

Welcome back ShaunWhite even if short stay.

Hi Emmson. I needed the break cos the forum was like being in an abusive relationship with someone you love. I think I'll start seeing it again but I'm not sure I should move back in permanently.

That's understandable Shaun, seeing as newbies take most advice for granted anyway, plus the off-topic drama doesn't always help

[Derek27]

Nice to see you back Shaun.

[Tetras]

I think the major thing I'd add to that is timing, without an appreciation of how and when the money arrives, reading the market doesn't mean much. It also needs an understanding of what the potential for a move is. When I started, I'd see a small move, 6 minutes out, lay the 2nd fav and think "hey, I've cracked it", then repeat until I'd lost 20 ticks in a few trades. It can be easy, but markets that are THAT easy aren't every hour. At least, not for me.

Finding this with my bot, it's hard for it to work out when money is arriving...

If previous race finished 30mins before. When does money arrive? slowly...? not sure?
If previous race finishes 5mins before, it's more obvious when that finishes circa 3mins a money impulse can be expected...?

It's a difficult thing to judge, because every day, market and meeting seems to behave a little differently. A general rule of thumb seems to be that the poorer quality the racing, the later the money, but if there's 15 minutes between them then the impact is definitely diluted. On very poor days, we might as well be trading greyhounds. But, then, last Sunday was higher quality racing and that was like trading greyounds too, I've seen less volatile bumpers (albeit, the moves don't usually come back in a bumper)

[jimibt]

Your contributions were always insightful and welcome, even if some people didn't see it that way.

The trouble is it's impossible to please everybody all the time, even if you are right.

Hi I hope you're keeping well.
tbh a lot of my absence has been down to getting obsessed with Sketchup and Blender. The landlord decided to sell the house we were renting, I didn't want to move, so I bought it. Since then I've been planning my "Grand Design" so I'll probably end up moving anyway but only to a caravan on a building site. Fingers crossed the automation keeps pace with the bills or that's going to end up as my permanent home!

you silly bugg3r - it'll end in cheers.

good to see you back. tried that build and live biz about 20 years ago, would definitely have no energy for that now, but you do find you get swept along. our kids' happiest memories are of a period where they all had to sleep in the same bedroom (1st world issues ) - this was their KiDsFM period... getting me all nostalgic now - lol

btw- i preferred Flanagan and Allen!!

[Kai]

[jimibt]

yeah - plus I tend to emit a wee pee now if i cough or sneeze

[napshnap]

^ That's some "RANT CORNER thread" stuff right here .

[ShaunWhite]

you silly bugg3r - it'll end in cheers.

good to see you back. tried that build and live biz about 20 years ago, would definitely have no energy for that now, but you do find you get swept along. our kids' happiest memories are of a period where they all had to sleep in the same bedroom (1st world issues ) - this was their KiDsFM period... getting me all nostalgic now - lol

btw- i preferred Flanagan and Allen!!

Hi Jim. tbh I just want a go on a digger and ride around on a Bobcat. When I realise how unfit I am I'll probably scale the project back to a skim and emulsion.