Trading What I see !?

[speedyhamster]

I feel as though i'm looking at the wrong stuff, as the basics don't tell you much:
- Traded volume gives no indication of which way the price is going to go
- WOM gives no indication of which way...
- Price trend gives no indication of any future trend

Even though I trade manually I still dont know what will happen but I have a good idea now from watching 1ks of markets over the years you develop a skill that cannot be learnt any other way It would seem to me G you are over complicating it by looking at everything but the ladders ?
Spend a week just studying the ladders and how they move and how the markets develop over the day that will tech you more in that time than you think then all that WOM and all the other signals will be of use to you then as you will know what to expect from certain set ups
Me personally do not look at WOM VWAP Volume or any kind of technical data because I can see all that in the ladders as and when its happening the only outside the ladder data I use is the BF graph's to see how steady the market is I dont even have pics on just plain cold trade
To wrap it up to automate an edge you first need to be able to trade manually to understand what rules you need for automation that's what I believe to be true anyway
My edge is being able to trade manually
I dont even know if you can call that an edge ?
If you was to ask me what my edge is I couldn't tell you as I dont know ?

Some food for thought their G

I find tick chart on the ladders and a 2 second candle chart as well as BF chart useful for spotting patterns, on the ladders you can see the money being matched etc , with automation you can alter the time to switch to market with a pop up ladder on your screen, and use a screen recorder to record the screen. so you can be at work while guardian records the market ladders (with charts) that you can watch back at home.
and if you think you see a pattern you can go back and see what happened in the market.

[speedyhamster]

Example
70% of the time the price bounces off 4.0 and goes back up.at least 5 ticks

trade 1 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit
trade 2 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit
trade 3 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price goes though 4 to 3.9 get out for 2 ticks loss
trade 4 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit
trade 5 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit
trade 6 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price goes though 4 to 3.9 get out for 2 ticks loss
trade 7 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price goes though 4 to 3.9 get out for 2 ticks loss
trade 8 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit
trade 9 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit
trade 10 lay at 4.0 and put an order in at 4.5 back - price bounces back up make 5 ticks profit

You would be looking for signs the market was going to bounce back up (why the ladder recordings are very useful)
I do not need to know which way the market will move, I just need to be able to accept that I was wrong on that occasion and accept a loss.
To me it is like I am the slot machine and occasionally I will have to pay out.

[goat68]

So I am coming to the conclusion UK horses for automation is far too competitive, so I am going to record some data from AUS races to see if they look any easier...

[ShaunWhite]

So I am coming to the conclusion UK horses for automation is far too competitive, so I am going to record some data from AUS races to see if they look any easier...

They're different, not so sure about easier. Make sure you read up on the Turnover Charge on NSW tracks which might restrict your turnover on those, and note the higher commission rates generally. They can be pretty fast moving because of the lower volumes so look out for that. Lastly do make sure you know how the various race type start (harness, pace etc) by watching some. Last prices can get wild because some markets stay open while they get up to speed behind a truck. Lots of variety and lots of it so it's well worth looking at.

[goat68]

Im just seeing the bot competition as very high, you look at the sorts im up against, look at befair community, betfairlightweight,.. they are just so advanced....my noddy ideas are peanuts! Most of them are fundamental model value based as well so the more experience you have in understanding the sport the better...
Hmmm what to do........

[beermonsterman]

Im just seeing the bot competition as very high, you look at the sorts im up against, look at befair community, betfairlightweight,.. they are just so advanced....my noddy ideas are peanuts! Most of them are fundamental model value based as well so the more experience you have in understanding the sport the better...
Hmmm what to do........

Hi goat have a play around with this if you like it has its flaws but some tweaking here and their may lead to something useful but don't use real money yet
I been running it for a few days but not had the chance to go over my results but does look promising
let me know what you think
I need to try and find some rules that will stop it from triggering 30 seconds before the finish line or may leave out any races under a mile also could do with a volume condition ? ETC ETC
Any comments welcome
Just made some tweaks so deleted and reposted

[goat68]

Im just seeing the bot competition as very high, you look at the sorts im up against, look at befair community, betfairlightweight,.. they are just so advanced....my noddy ideas are peanuts! Most of them are fundamental model value based as well so the more experience you have in understanding the sport the better...
Hmmm what to do........

Hi goat have a play around with this if you like it has its flaws but some tweaking here and their may lead to something useful but don't use real money yet
I been running it for a few days but not had the chance to go over my results but does look promising
let me know what you think
I need to try and find some rules that will stop it from triggering 30 seconds before the finish line or may leave out any races under a mile also could do with a volume condition ? ETC ETC
Any comments welcome
Just made some tweaks so deleted and reposted

thanks Beer, i'll have a peek, but you make an interesting area I forgot about trying, "inplay" ! cheers

[beermonsterman]

Im just seeing the bot competition as very high, you look at the sorts im up against, look at befair community, betfairlightweight,.. they are just so advanced....my noddy ideas are peanuts! Most of them are fundamental model value based as well so the more experience you have in understanding the sport the better...
Hmmm what to do........

Hi goat have a play around with this if you like it has its flaws but some tweaking here and their may lead to something useful but don't use real money yet
I been running it for a few days but not had the chance to go over my results but does look promising
let me know what you think
I need to try and find some rules that will stop it from triggering 30 seconds before the finish line or may leave out any races under a mile also could do with a volume condition ? ETC ETC
Any comments welcome
Just made some tweaks so deleted and reposted

thanks Beer, i'll have a peek, but you make an interesting area I forgot about trying, "inplay" ! cheers

need to re think red up and green up best if you delete them and let it run see later about cutting losses

[ShaunWhite]

Im just seeing the bot competition as very high, you look at the sorts im up against, look at befair community, betfairlightweight,.. they are just so advanced....my noddy ideas are peanuts! Most of them are fundamental model value based as well so the more experience you have in understanding the sport the better...
Hmmm what to do........

Your ideas are going to seem naive because the reality is that you're an amateur who's been doing it for 5 minutes.

There's been people operating at all levels of sophistication for 15yrs or more as you'd expect anywhere there's good money to be made. But unless the world stands still and markets sit at one price for hours on end there'll always be a money to be made. Also don't get the impression that everyone on Slack is making money. There's probably the same proportion making money as there is on here.

You only get a market where there's a difference of option and thankfully everyone has a different option and on top of that they're using different methods and techniques. As for fundamentals then only a tiny number ever make that game pay so I wouldn't worry too much about them. As a comparison, do you think a financials day trader can make money vs the huge global investment houses? They can and they do. I think you're realise why sports trading is hard but it's not something that makes it impossible. Gambling is very established industry with the potential to make some people 8 figure incomes so its not really any great surprise that there's people who take it seriously. It's not all flat caps and whippet.

[goat68]

Being busy trawling over and over my 1second recorded data for the last 30mins of the last 2 weeks of UK racing, and what have I found........nothing! Well nothing that seems to be profitable beyond the spread and commission, and i'm only talking strategies that try to signal a +ev move over 1min or so. I've tried everything I can think of, some come close or around breakeven.
One thing that is very very clear though, is the most likely "syndicate" money coming in dead on 2mins, basically at 2mins the direction of the top 4favs can turn on a dime! and head viciously in one direction for an indeterminate amount of time. From what the slack folks were summizing, basically the syndicate(s) have a target price in mind based on a model and at 2mins load the money on until the price hits their target. So not knowing what their target is makes it impossible to profit from, i've tried everything I can think of to leverage the moves.

Thank you for the PMs recently from some of you, i'm going to continue my data analysis, but move to a more scalping type move to try and capture something +EV! A bit more tricky to model using 1second data though.

[goat68]

Scatter chart from one of my backtests, looks like a lovely normal distribution!

strat1.jpg

[ShaunWhite]

i'm only talking strategies that try to signal a +ev move over 1min or so

"only" a minute or so How about starting at 1 or 2s, afterall a string of 2s predictions IS a prediction over a minute.

I'd be interested to find out why you think a 1 minute prediction is possible? Even manual traders with all their intuition and additional information would struggle do 1 minute forecasts anything like reliably, unless one of them can say otherwise.

[goat68]

i'm only talking strategies that try to signal a +ev move over 1min or so

"only" a minute or so How about starting at 1 or 2s, afterall a string of 2s predictions IS a prediction over a minute.

I'd be interested to find out why you think a 1 minute prediction is possible? Even manual traders with all their intuition and additional information would struggle do 1 minute forecasts anything like reliably, unless one of them can say otherwise.

So Peter and co are in trades of several minutes... but yes i've realized it doesn't seem possible.
Equally I don't really get the 1second time period either... the price hardly moves in 1 second typically, but I guess a stable scalp it doesn't have to.

[ShaunWhite]

So Peter and co are in trades of several minutes... but yes i've realized it doesn't seem possible.

Yes he's in open positions for several minutes but he'll never have the same liability throughout, might even swap sides, and definately never sitting on his hands if all the signs turn against him. So many people watch his videos and come away thinking he 'opens' and 'closes' ages later, (well he doesn't here https://youtu.be/DEJR6R08w3Q or anywhere I've seen). So what I meant by that 1s thing wasn't literally being in and out in 1s, but being prepared to act at any given second even though most of the time you probably don't.

[wearthefoxhat]

So Peter and co are in trades of several minutes... but yes i've realized it doesn't seem possible.

Yes he's in open positions for several minutes but he'll never have the same liability throughout, might even swap sides, and definately never sitting on his hands if all the signs turn against him. So many people watch his videos and come away thinking he 'opens' and 'closes' ages later, (well he doesn't here https://youtu.be/DEJR6R08w3Q or anywhere I've seen). So what I meant by that 1s thing wasn't literally being in and out in 1s, but being prepared to act at any given second even though most of the time you probably don't.

I believe PW also uses signals to confirm or unconfirm his decision making.