Data leak I found from a few years ago.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:23 pmThat's even more impressive considering the amount of accounts they must have. Where did you get the stats from LinusP?LinusP wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:01 pmProfit over £1k and drops to around 8%spreadbetting wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:00 pmThat's a lot higher than I'd have imagined, goes to show how easy it is to win on the exchanges with near 100% books.
Trading What I see !?
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2142
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Don't have market count, active user days over 64 is around 7% profitable, note that this is a sample of Betfair worldwide and not the full picture but certainly enough for a representative sample.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:11 pmWhy is there such a massive discrepancy between that figure & pc1?
I'd be interested to know how many are in profit after 250 markets
So a lot better day, doing more analysis of the order flow on the ladder for mostly fav's I thought looked like being backed/layed. Some markets were quite easy, some were scarily volatile! I suspect this sort of trading has quite a bit of variance, i'm suspecting i'm on the lucky side of that today:
12 wins : AVG +£1.39
3 losses : AVG -£2.54
Net: +£9.05
12 wins : AVG +£1.39
3 losses : AVG -£2.54
Net: +£9.05
One thing just to point out, not saying it's the case, but sometimes it's easy to fall into a +ve day = good, -ve day = bad. Might not be the case but a pattern seems to be feeling good when you're green and not so much when red. I made a big stride myself when I got beyond this and could recognise when I'd done exactly what I wanted to do but ended up red and I could feel pleased about that.
doubling your stakes is a really dumb idea. take a break instead, reset your brain, then think about why trying to recover your losses by doubling your stakes is not a good idea.
Three losses in a row for me is quite commonplace. You really need to remove emotion and frustration from trading, as much as you can. Think about why you lost in those markets, random distribution of losses? Avoidable mistakes? Markets not trading as you expect to suit your strategy?
If it's the former there's no need to double your stakes, if it's one of the latter then you'll just lose twice as much!
I only posted because I was misled by to75ne's reply.
I'm giving it a break, it's not working for me trying to read the ladder, to summarize what I am trying to do;
1) find runner that chart looks to be being backed or layed
2) do other runners support it?
3) watch runner order flow for tell tail backing/laying, eg. snap backs
4) jump on the flow...
5) monitor for agreement
1) find runner that chart looks to be being backed or layed
2) do other runners support it?
3) watch runner order flow for tell tail backing/laying, eg. snap backs
4) jump on the flow...
5) monitor for agreement
I found this post from JollyGreen quite illuminating in its simplicity which is why I remember it and knew where to find it again.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541&start=20
JollyGreen wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:06 pmJeff
It's quite simple and applies to anything that is bought and sold. There is a price that someone wants to buy at and there is a price at which someone wants to sell.
If you therefore watch the money it will soon inform you where the price for buyers and sellers meets. If it goes too high the agreement breaks down and vice versa for the low.
If you watch the market this way it will soon become apparent where the reversal points are likely to be. Now before you reply with the usual "what if" a large order drives it further, ask yourself if that order is correct based on prior money that has slowly decayed as the market has moved away from the meeting point for backers and layers.
Also, if you don't think this is possible then look at the posts where I gave prices for Next Sensation at Newcastle and High Net Worth at Dundalk. They were pretty close in real life to the prices I quoted many hours before the market with the former being quoted before £20 had been matched on Betfair. So if I am wrong then I reassess and start again, the market will soon let me know what the correct price is. If the market is up and down like a fiddler's elbow then I will simply leave it alone.
That helps thanksEmmson wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:51 pmI found this post from JollyGreen quite illuminating in its simplicity which is why I remember it and knew where to find it again.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541&start=20
JollyGreen wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:06 pmJeff
It's quite simple and applies to anything that is bought and sold. There is a price that someone wants to buy at and there is a price at which someone wants to sell.
If you therefore watch the money it will soon inform you where the price for buyers and sellers meets. If it goes too high the agreement breaks down and vice versa for the low.
If you watch the market this way it will soon become apparent where the reversal points are likely to be. Now before you reply with the usual "what if" a large order drives it further, ask yourself if that order is correct based on prior money that has slowly decayed as the market has moved away from the meeting point for backers and layers.
Also, if you don't think this is possible then look at the posts where I gave prices for Next Sensation at Newcastle and High Net Worth at Dundalk. They were pretty close in real life to the prices I quoted many hours before the market with the former being quoted before £20 had been matched on Betfair. So if I am wrong then I reassess and start again, the market will soon let me know what the correct price is. If the market is up and down like a fiddler's elbow then I will simply leave it alone.