Trading What I see !?

[PapaShango]

Well done Shaun. £2.5k is not to be sniffed at.

Especially as it was being made whilst you were curled up on your sofa watching countdown!

Interesting seeing your drawdowns and variance in action though. If that was me, I’d have been panicking by mid August , good to see that your bot had the discipline to keep grinding out its edge and not do anything stupid !

[Anbell]

GOAT - here's a simulator that might help
https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/

[goat68]

GOAT - here's a simulator that might help
https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/

Thanks that's a helpful tool.

I'm a bit dubious of MC stuff, just by it's nature of having very little input it can't really tell you much. The thing it will tell you is the more bets you do the more confidence and smaller % drawdown you will achieve. So basically it tells you the more bets you do the more confident you will be, which is sort of obvious!

It doesn't tell you if you've fitted your strategy, which is my biggest issue. I try and avoid fitting by using multiple sample sets, typically about 1month's worth each. However, what I find is market behaviour or my fitting changes from month to month. Which might actually be the case with "seasonality"...

[Anbell]

GOAT - here's a simulator that might help
https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/

Thanks that's a helpful tool.

I'm a bit dubious of MC stuff, just by it's nature of having very little input it can't really tell you much. The thing it will tell you is the more bets you do the more confidence and smaller % drawdown you will achieve. So basically it tells you the more bets you do the more confident you will be, which is sort of obvious!

It doesn't tell you if you've fitted your strategy, which is my biggest issue. I try and avoid fitting by using multiple sample sets, typically about 1month's worth each. However, what I find is market behaviour or my fitting changes from month to month. Which might actually be the case with "seasonality"...

I doubt that seasonality is your issue.

[goat68]

I've done an interesting test looking at my "hedge" bet value.
So I used a strategy i'm working on for AUS horses, and used hedging at post time. Applying the method across the broad selections, and then hedging showed a net loss, BUT my net on just the "hedge bets" was about £0.
Then applying filters on the signal to find a better edge, showed +EV on the "signal bets", but a significant loss on the "hedge bets" -£343.
However, I know that if I don't "hedge" the +EV "signal bets" end up with a net loss due to commission!

[ShaunWhite]

GOAT - here's a simulator that might help
https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/

Thanks that's a helpful tool.

I'm a bit dubious of MC stuff, just by it's nature of having very little input it can't really tell you much. The thing it will tell you is the more bets you do the more confidence and smaller % drawdown you will achieve. So basically it tells you the more bets you do the more confident you will be, which is sort of obvious!

It doesn't tell you if you've fitted your strategy, which is my biggest issue. I try and avoid fitting by using multiple sample sets, typically about 1month's worth each. However, what I find is market behaviour or my fitting changes from month to month. Which might actually be the case with "seasonality"...

Don't do month A then month B, randomising across it all.

MC is only intended to show you the expected range of results, ie how likely is your outcome. If you're dubious perhaps you've misunderstood what its for.

A month of data in each set? You know that's not enough so why do it?

[goat68]

GOAT - here's a simulator that might help
https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/

Thanks that's a helpful tool.

I'm a bit dubious of MC stuff, just by it's nature of having very little input it can't really tell you much. The thing it will tell you is the more bets you do the more confidence and smaller % drawdown you will achieve. So basically it tells you the more bets you do the more confident you will be, which is sort of obvious!

It doesn't tell you if you've fitted your strategy, which is my biggest issue. I try and avoid fitting by using multiple sample sets, typically about 1month's worth each. However, what I find is market behaviour or my fitting changes from month to month. Which might actually be the case with "seasonality"...

Don't do month A then month B, randomising across it all.

MC is only intended to show you the expected range of results, ie how likely is your outcome. If you're dubious perhaps you've misunderstood what its for.

A month of data in each set? You know that's not enough so why do it?

Struggling to find anything that works across 3 months on pre-horses just on plain calendars! don't have to worry about randomising yet!

[goat68]

I'm actually coming to the conclusion it's pretty darn hard pre-race horses to find anything consistent across 3months, behaviour seems to change from month to month, but it's obviously possible, Shaun does it!

[goat68]

GOAT - here's a simulator that might help
https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/

So there must be the answer to this somewhere on this forum... but for the purpose of this calculator what is the Yield formula for Lay bets? The above calulator uses the term "Volume"? So if I Lay £2 at 5.0, the "Volume" is £2 ? or is it the risk amount ie.£8 ?

[goat68]

It's frustrating these websites all seem to just view betting just as placing Back bets...which I guess it is! but make Yield tricky, and as such can't use the above calculator as I need to give it the Yield value it is expecting...>?

[Realrocknrolla]

It's frustrating these websites all seem to just view betting just as placing Back bets...which I guess it is! but make Yield tricky, and as such can't use the above calculator as I need to give it the Yield value it is expecting...>?

Inboxed you.

[goat68]

So i've been working on my new horse bot, the last one got ditched as I believe it was not much better than random, that leaves just dogbot at the moment, which has recovered after the initial September blip and is back in profit for Sept again.

So thank you to @Anbell for the link to the Betting Calculator: https://valuebettingblog.com/advanced-b ... alculator/ and will help me better judge the backtest results.
I have now run a 3 month backtest on the new UKhorsebot, and plugged into the above calculator, having worked out how to adjust the "volume" for Lay bets (I simply convert them into as-if they were a Back bet, thus £2 Lay at 5.0, is a volume=£8 at odds 1.25).
And the result on the new bot is below, so was wondering what people's experience/view of a P-value of 11% is? a little high?:

Screenshot 2021-09-04 at 16.27.24.png

[goat68]

And the backtest chart, reasonable looking at that, some biggish dips though! :

Screenshot 2021-09-04 at 16.46.12.png

[goat68]

Normal service resumed

Screenshot 2021-09-05 at 21.37.25.png

[goat68]

Enjoying the new toy, completed a full 15week backtest of dogbot, P-value 0.022%

Screenshot 2021-09-05 at 21.42.00.png