Trading What I see !?

[Trader Pat]

A couple of months back I won 5k on the Euromillions, don't know if you have it in the UK but here in Ireland they have an Ireland only raffle included on the ticket.

When I scanned the ticket with my phone it just said I had won big!! Before I checked the numbers to see how much I'd won I sat there for a few minutes daydreaming... maybe I'd won the jackpot!

When I realised I won 'only' 5k I was dissappointed! Question is if you guys had scanned the ticket and seen the image below would you have had the same response as me or am I just a greedy bastard?!

And to make it even 'worse' out of the 10 winning raffle numbers one of them was worth €1m so I had a 1/10 chance of winning a million!

Brilliant… funny you should mention it. As similar happened to be around 8 years ago.

Was checking my tickets round a pals house. And i only had 5 numbers. At the time, I thought Id won big. To the point of running upstairs to the wife on the loo. Kicking the door open saying. “We won the lottery”

The jackpot number was in the line below and i won £1700.

We still laugh to this day about me kicking the loo door open!

You might laugh about it but has she forgiven you yet?!

[goat68]

Great to see lots of fun chat..being busy on day job so just catching up!
Got a new bot idea to schedule overnight, based on previous race finish semantics...

[Realrocknrolla]

A couple of months back I won 5k on the Euromillions, don't know if you have it in the UK but here in Ireland they have an Ireland only raffle included on the ticket.

When I scanned the ticket with my phone it just said I had won big!! Before I checked the numbers to see how much I'd won I sat there for a few minutes daydreaming... maybe I'd won the jackpot!

When I realised I won 'only' 5k I was dissappointed! Question is if you guys had scanned the ticket and seen the image below would you have had the same response as me or am I just a greedy bastard?!

And to make it even 'worse' out of the 10 winning raffle numbers one of them was worth €1m so I had a 1/10 chance of winning a million!

Brilliant… funny you should mention it. As similar happened to be around 8 years ago.

Was checking my tickets round a pals house. And i only had 5 numbers. At the time, I thought Id won big. To the point of running upstairs to the wife on the loo. Kicking the door open saying. “We won the lottery”

The jackpot number was in the line below and i won £1700.

We still laugh to this day about me kicking the loo door open!

You might laugh about it but has she forgiven you yet?!

Do we ever get forgiven

[Trader Pat]

Brilliant… funny you should mention it. As similar happened to be around 8 years ago.

Was checking my tickets round a pals house. And i only had 5 numbers. At the time, I thought Id won big. To the point of running upstairs to the wife on the loo. Kicking the door open saying. “We won the lottery”

The jackpot number was in the line below and i won £1700.

We still laugh to this day about me kicking the loo door open!

You might laugh about it but has she forgiven you yet?!

Do we ever get forgiven

I'm single so to answer your question probably not!

[goat68]

Hi me again

So just been running some backtests on new idea and initial trading strategy was rubbish, over 1month sample, lost every week. However...I noticed the LAY side did quite well over the month, sort of... what do you think of this result as a Lay Betting strategy for the 1month sample:

Week 1 Back : 0.00
Week 1 Lay : 251.52
Week 1 TOTAL : 251.52 for 74 bets
-------------------------
Week 2 Back : 0.00
Week 2 Lay : 307.02
Week 2 TOTAL : 307.02 for 75 bets
-------------------------
Week 3 Back : 0.00
Week 3 Lay : -79.66
Week 3 TOTAL : -79.66 for 61 bets
-------------------------
Week 4 Back : 0.00
Week 4 Lay : -52.40
Week 4 TOTAL : -52.40 for 60 bets
-------------------------

Number of markets = 270
Number of selections = 270
Number of Backs = 0
Number of Lays = 270
Back profit = 0.00
Lay profit = 426.48
Strike Rate = 77 %
Implied Back Odds = 1.30
Implied Lay Odds = 4.29
Avg bet price = 5.34
Avg bet size = 12.35
Avg weighted odds = 3.02
Yield avg bet size = 24.99
Yield avg wghted odds = 1.49
Yield = 5.73 %
Wins = 207
Losses = 63
Av Win = 9.50
Av Loss = -25.07
Biggest Win = 153.43
Biggest Loss = -29.60
Highest Hi = 583.37
Lowest Lo = 0.00
Biggest Drawdown = -203.32
Longest win streak = 17
Longest lose streak = 5
Total profit = 386.37
Turn Over % = 5.73 %
Commission = 39.31 (10.18 %)

I'll churn a 5 month sample with this over night, see what we get by morning!
You see this does tend to be the way I work, I try a strategy, it doesn't work but I see something from analysing the results, not really knowing what it means, just that it's a positive number !

[goat68]

So didn't do very well over 5months, breakeven, with a large drawdown in that:
Number of markets = 3666
Number of selections = 3670
Number of Backs = 0
Number of Lays = 3670
Back profit = 0.00
Lay profit = 233.22
Strike Rate = 79 %
Implied Back Odds = 1.27
Implied Lay Odds = 4.67
Avg bet price = 5.86
Avg bet size = 3.27
Avg weighted odds = 4.12
Yield avg bet size = 10.21
Yield avg wghted odds = 1.32
Yield = 0.18 %
Wins = 2881
Losses = 785
Av Win = 2.81
Av Loss = -10.22
Biggest Win = 18.27
Biggest Loss = -20.52
Highest Hi = 199.68
Lowest Lo = -182.94
Biggest Drawdown = -382.62
Longest win streak = 25
Longest lose streak = 6
Total profit = 68.04
Turn Over % = 0.18 %
Commission = 161.88 (237.93 %)

Week 1 Back : 0.00
Week 1 Lay : 99.13
Week 1 TOTAL : 99.13 for 184 bets
-------------------------
Week 2 Back : 0.00
Week 2 Lay : -9.30
Week 2 TOTAL : -9.30 for 237 bets
-------------------------
Week 3 Back : 0.00
Week 3 Lay : -33.99
Week 3 TOTAL : -33.99 for 210 bets
-------------------------
Week 4 Back : 0.00
Week 4 Lay : -100.31
Week 4 TOTAL : -100.31 for 180 bets
-------------------------
Week 5 Back : 0.00
Week 5 Lay : -56.69
Week 5 TOTAL : -56.69 for 158 bets
-------------------------
Week 6 Back : 0.00
Week 6 Lay : 92.88
Week 6 TOTAL : 92.88 for 180 bets
-------------------------
Week 7 Back : 0.00
Week 7 Lay : 77.54
Week 7 TOTAL : 77.54 for 180 bets
-------------------------
Week 8 Back : 0.00
Week 8 Lay : 136.33
Week 8 TOTAL : 136.33 for 214 bets
-------------------------
Week 9 Back : 0.00
Week 9 Lay : -21.48
Week 9 TOTAL : -21.48 for 164 bets
-------------------------
Week 10 Back : 0.00
Week 10 Lay : 20.42
Week 10 TOTAL : 20.42 for 173 bets
-------------------------
Week 11 Back : 0.00
Week 11 Lay : -47.51
Week 11 TOTAL : -47.51 for 194 bets
-------------------------
Week 12 Back : 0.00
Week 12 Lay : -54.93
Week 12 TOTAL : -54.93 for 168 bets
-------------------------
Week 13 Back : 0.00
Week 13 Lay : -124.53
Week 13 TOTAL : -124.53 for 164 bets
-------------------------
Week 14 Back : 0.00
Week 14 Lay : 0.95
Week 14 TOTAL : 0.95 for 183 bets
-------------------------
Week 15 Back : 0.00
Week 15 Lay : 98.26
Week 15 TOTAL : 98.26 for 178 bets
-------------------------
Week 16 Back : 0.00
Week 16 Lay : -19.81
Week 16 TOTAL : -19.81 for 134 bets
-------------------------
Week 17 Back : 0.00
Week 17 Lay : 70.22
Week 17 TOTAL : 70.22 for 141 bets
-------------------------
Week 18 Back : 0.00
Week 18 Lay : 136.20
Week 18 TOTAL : 136.20 for 181 bets
-------------------------
Week 19 Back : 0.00
Week 19 Lay : 29.84
Week 19 TOTAL : 29.84 for 153 bets
-------------------------
Week 20 Back : 0.00
Week 20 Lay : -73.02
Week 20 TOTAL : -73.02 for 149 bets
-------------------------
Week 21 Back : 0.00
Week 21 Lay : 13.02
Week 21 TOTAL : 13.02 for 145 bets
-------------------------

[goat68]

Trying a new "tweak", running again... back in 5hours!

[goat68]

Does order flow trading after previous race finish work better for competitive races(hcap) or non-competitive(nov,mdn) races ?

[goat68]

It's interesting "betting" is easier than "trading", as with the later you have to get 2 value bets, the former only 1 !
That's why I tend towards single value bets...

[goat68]

Trying to hedge based on any technical analysis seems to be a losers game, eg.hedge if vwap cross, relative volume change, price change, stop loss, .........
The best hedge is a fixed time like just before the off.

[goat68]

I'm thinking this comes back to simple doesn't work for automation, I thought detecting previous race finishes and signalling on momentum would be deemed as not simple....perhaps not!

[goat68]

Anyone got any good links on how to become a profitable automation trader?

[Realrocknrolla]

Anyone got any good links on how to become a profitable automation trader?

https://online.betangelacademy.com/

[goat68]

Anyone got any good links on how to become a profitable automation trader?

https://online.betangelacademy.com/

Done them all!

[Realrocknrolla]

Anyone got any good links on how to become a profitable automation trader?

https://online.betangelacademy.com/

Done them all!

Change your sport? Football maybe!

Football is easy. Even my son makes £500 a month on football! He’s 18