What % of betfair users are profitable?
Hi Peter,
I will be on 50% by the end of next week. Would love to get to 40% if it didn't require too much work.
One thing I've been thinking about lately is a churn with variance. A theoretical example:
Let's say you trade on 10 markets a day and they all happen to be on a runner/player/team with odds of 2.0. You make £5 per trade.
Instead of collecting the £5 (minus commission and PC) for each trade, you bet £20 on your traded runner/player/team at 2.0. So if the your bet wins you win £25 (£5 for the trade, £20 for the bet). If your bet loses, you lose £15 (£20 for your losing bet minus £5 for your trade).
You can expect to win £25 five times and lose £15 five times. So your profit would be £50, the same as if you just closed your trades at £5/£5.
In theory is this a good method for reducing PC? The bet of £20 is just a random figure, is there an optimum amount for this to work? Ok, there's variance to deal with but as long as you have good enough bank management skills you should be ok. Any thoughts anyone?
Sorry if it's a bit long-winded, I traded the golf and am absolutely shattered.
Cheers.
/dave
I will be on 50% by the end of next week. Would love to get to 40% if it didn't require too much work.
One thing I've been thinking about lately is a churn with variance. A theoretical example:
Let's say you trade on 10 markets a day and they all happen to be on a runner/player/team with odds of 2.0. You make £5 per trade.
Instead of collecting the £5 (minus commission and PC) for each trade, you bet £20 on your traded runner/player/team at 2.0. So if the your bet wins you win £25 (£5 for the trade, £20 for the bet). If your bet loses, you lose £15 (£20 for your losing bet minus £5 for your trade).
You can expect to win £25 five times and lose £15 five times. So your profit would be £50, the same as if you just closed your trades at £5/£5.
In theory is this a good method for reducing PC? The bet of £20 is just a random figure, is there an optimum amount for this to work? Ok, there's variance to deal with but as long as you have good enough bank management skills you should be ok. Any thoughts anyone?
Sorry if it's a bit long-winded, I traded the golf and am absolutely shattered.
Cheers.
/dave
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2160
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
They do, it's called, betrava........ I've got too much free time
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Is this an open offer Euler? I was going to PM you a few weeks ago re this but realised you'd turned that off.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10559
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The easy way to reduce the effect of PC and many other trading costs is to simply delcare yourself to the HMRC as trader. These costs are then fully tax deductable, or perhaps you're better off staying in the black ecomony?
I'm obvioulsy not going to defend excessive charges by suppliers, but when I hear people complaining about it, my first thought is that it's a bit rich given that traders already avoid paying any income tax or NI on their often very substantial incomes. If investment banks pulled that 'i'm just a gambler' routine people would go nuts about it. Poor old Trader_Tom the greengrocer has to pay tax and all he does is buy apples and hopes to sell them for a profit. Just like we do with bets. Maybe he should re-regsister with Her Maj as an apple gambler instead of an apple trader. It does all sound a bit like those businesses that say they'll go under if they pay their staff a decent wage.
Try to take heart from the fact that PC contributes to BF's profit, that profit is taxed in one jurisdiction or another, so at least some of it is going to good causes, just like poor old Trader_Tom's taxable profit on his pound of apples. Keep your chins up, PC is just the price of having a job that the HMRC thankfully haven't cottoned on to, yet.
This is probably easy for me to say as my trading income doesn't yet reach the income tax threshold, and I'm still wishing I paid PC, rather than being agrovated about paying it.
I'm obvioulsy not going to defend excessive charges by suppliers, but when I hear people complaining about it, my first thought is that it's a bit rich given that traders already avoid paying any income tax or NI on their often very substantial incomes. If investment banks pulled that 'i'm just a gambler' routine people would go nuts about it. Poor old Trader_Tom the greengrocer has to pay tax and all he does is buy apples and hopes to sell them for a profit. Just like we do with bets. Maybe he should re-regsister with Her Maj as an apple gambler instead of an apple trader. It does all sound a bit like those businesses that say they'll go under if they pay their staff a decent wage.
Try to take heart from the fact that PC contributes to BF's profit, that profit is taxed in one jurisdiction or another, so at least some of it is going to good causes, just like poor old Trader_Tom's taxable profit on his pound of apples. Keep your chins up, PC is just the price of having a job that the HMRC thankfully haven't cottoned on to, yet.
This is probably easy for me to say as my trading income doesn't yet reach the income tax threshold, and I'm still wishing I paid PC, rather than being agrovated about paying it.
Not sure if you are being serious with this comment?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:29 pmThe easy way to reduce the effect of PC and many other trading costs is to simply delcare yourself to the HMRC as trader. These costs are then fully tax deductable, or perhaps you're better off staying in the black ecomony?
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2160
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
It will never be taxed. For the simple reason HMRC will lose revenue. Remember for every winning trader, there's a losing trader. The loser will claim the losses, & the gains from the winner won't cover it.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:29 pmKeep your chins up, PC is just the price of having a job that the HMRC thankfully haven't cottoned on to, yet.
When I went self-employed, there was no PC. So I was happy to pay income tax, as I thought it would assist my credit rating. However, when I went to fill in my self-assessment form, HMRC told me to put £0 earnings and they would close my account down.