What % of betfair users are profitable?

[Trader_Tom]

I saw a tweet earlier that said 0.8% of betfair users are profitable. I'm pretty sure this figure is just picked out of the air (because they were claiming to be one of them) but it got me wondering if betfair have released any actual statistics on this? I would imagine the % is small so figured betfair might not divulge this information as it may put people off using it.

No real reason for needing to know. I'm just curious is all!

[Euler]

Betfair have released stats on it. Like all statistics, it depends on how you measure it.

Loads of people moan about the PC but very few pay the higher rates and pretty much no-one is on the very high rates. If anybody is paying the much higher rates then they quickly figure out how not to and some go a step further and change their activity to avoid it as much as possible.

Betfair published a very high number in one of their annual reports can't remember which one it was. On the higher rate premium charge, when introduced, they reckoned it would only affect 0.10% of users.

[DRED1]

You dont have to be paying max or high premium charge to be successful. You could be in profit £19k a year, and just have a little spend up and treat yourself.
DR

[Bluesky]

I think its unlikely we will ever know the true figure, as only BF know it and as the figure is likely to be very low its not really in their interest to reveal it.

I have read on various forums figures quoted of between 2 and 10%. I used to be in contact with traders in the financial industry years ago, and the accepted figure at that time was around 5%.

The 0.8% figure you read about today seems a bit low, but I would not be totally shocked if it was accurate. My guess would be that its probably similar to the financial industry at around 5% give or take a couple of percentage points in either direction.

It is surprising how much difference the commission BF charge can make to traders around the B/E level. If they were to lower that then I think the winning percentage would be comfortably above 10%.

[PeterLe]

Hi
Check this link out

https://en-betfair.custhelp.com/app/ans ... -pay-it%3F

they suggest 0.5%
Regards
Peter

[Bluesky]

I've seen that 0.5% figure before but that is with reference to the top PC charge, it would be interesting to see how many traders are actually profitable after say one year. I don't see BF giving out this kind of information, I don't see how it would help their business.

[Euler]

0.5% is just premium charge payers, not higher rate I think?

I'm sure I remember BF saying quoting 20% of actives were profitable in any one month or something. But that seemed quite high. But it could be as on day one 50% will be profitable if it was completely random.

I had a friend who worked at city firm and would analyse customer activity. Strike rate on currency pairs for most clients was over 50%, the highest pair produced an average of over 70%. But.... people lost more when losing than they won resulting in a net loss.

[PeterLe]

0.5% is just premium charge payers, not higher rate I think?

Peter you're correct (Tom this is not the higher rate)
Either way; still an achievement to pay basic PC.
Regards
Peter

[Euler]

[Euler]

Looks like they have quite a few records here: -

http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/br ... d-profits/

[Euler]

Is it a bit like saying, how many footballers go on to play at a professional level? I wonder how many mug punters are there? So maybe it's better asking the question how many traders are profitable, rather than Betfair users?

[Trader_Tom]

0.5% is just premium charge payers, not higher rate I think?

Peter you're correct (Tom this is not the higher rate)
Either way; still an achievement to pay basic PC.
Regards
Peter

Thanks for the stats : )

I'm not overly surprised to be honest. Look all around you at the majority of "traders", punters and tipsters. Look on twitter and Facebook and it soon becomes apparent that the competition isn't all that great.

I've only traded 500 markets but I am profitable so I like to think I'm on the right track but who knows? I may be one of the aforementioned people in the long run haha.

There is also so many variables to think of so the figure is going to change depending on different criteria. Length of time using betfair, inactive accounts etc. Plus there's always going to be "winning losers" due to dumb luck etc.

[newaustralian]

Interesting questions I am offered Dollars of free bonus bets during a year. By manipulating the odds between Betfair and the firm offering the free bets I usually make a profit not always in Betfair. Over the past two years - once I removed the emotion from betting and kept to a money managemnt plan - I have won. I only lay and aim with a starting deposit on 1 July to make $14000 a years from each $1000 starting deposit. - If I am correct rather than lucky . the money management plan is the essential part of my betting.

[Bluesky]

I've only traded 500 markets but I am profitable so I like to think I'm on the right track but who knows? I may be one of the aforementioned people in the long run haha.

This is an interesting thing you have brought up. I seem to remember reading somewhere about confidence levels, and I think there is an equation you can use to work out how likely you are to be winning due to skill level and not luck.

If anyone knows the equation please post it, obviously the more markets you have traded and the longer you have traded the more reliable your stats are going to be.

I would have thought if you are making consistent profits after 500 trades then you would have a high confidence level if you worked out the calculations. I also imagine that you should have some kind of internal feeling in yourself, that tells you if you are reading the market well and making good market decisions.

I have made just over 150 trades in my first month of sports trading, I too am profitable (but only just), however I do not feel confident in my market reading and I think a lot of my success is down to luck, and a little bit of skill.

I am hoping that by the time I get to the 500 markets traded stage I will feel more confident in my ability, but people learn at different rates so if I am losing after 500 trades then as long as I am learning then I will not be too disappointed.

Most of the winning traders I have spoken to (sports and financial) say they lost money for at least the first year when they started, and I have prepared myself mentally for this likely occurrence.

[Euler]

Most of the winning traders I have spoken to (sports and financial) say they lost money for at least the first year when they started, and I have prepared myself mentally for this likely occurrence.

A lot of people quit before they reach the promised land. It's a classic bit of human psychology so I reckon that skews numbers as well. Losing is painful, so people drop out despite the fact that they may actually be long term profitable, but just on a bad run.