Football Correct Score Lays - After 6 Weeks This Is How I Am Doing

[Kai]

So you are saying he was simultaneously scalping "unders" market while having a lay bet on correct score?

Well he said it himself in the tweet above, and not for the first time

Am I correct in thinking that scalping can be used essentially as a sort of "insurance"? In the sense that you are anticipating a goal to be scored (so you have an open back bet on the "over" market"), while at the same time taking advantage of the decay in the "under" market by scalping that? (Which is kind of what I've been doing recently).

Yes, although insurance is a bad word and an even worse concept, a strategy that produces +EV should not need insurance. But the important thing in the above example would be that both strategies are independent of one another and profitable on their own, when used with a good degree of skill of course.

[Speculator_3]

So you are saying he was simultaneously scalping "unders" market while having a lay bet on correct score?

Well he said it himself in the tweet above, and not for the first time

Am I correct in thinking that scalping can be used essentially as a sort of "insurance"? In the sense that you are anticipating a goal to be scored (so you have an open back bet on the "over" market"), while at the same time taking advantage of the decay in the "under" market by scalping that? (Which is kind of what I've been doing recently).

Yes, although insurance is a bad word and an even worse concept, a strategy that produces +EV should not need insurance. But the important thing in the above example would be that both strategies are independent of one another and profitable on their own, when used with a good degree of skill of course.

Yeah, I agree word "insurance" was a bad choice here. Is there any kind of software / quick way to essentially instanteously calculate whether one gets better odds on backing "overs" or laying "correct score"? I am not fast enough on my mental calculations...

[Kai]

Is there any kind of software / quick way to essentially instanteously calculate whether one gets better odds on backing "overs" or laying "correct score"? I am not fast enough on my mental calculations...

It is actually the same market, no need to calculate anything. Current correct score and current under markets, in the above example the 1-2 CS market = under 3.5 market. Meaning that the price is effectively the same on both, only the liquidity (amount of money on it) may differ.

[Speculator_3]

Is there any kind of software / quick way to essentially instanteously calculate whether one gets better odds on backing "overs" or laying "correct score"? I am not fast enough on my mental calculations...

It is actually the same market, no need to calculate anything. Current correct score and current under markets, in the above example the 1-2 CS market = under 3.5 market. Meaning that the price is effectively the same on both, only the liquidity (amount of money on it) may differ.

Yeah I know is essentially the same market. But the prices on offer for can still differ by a couple of ticks, right? And I guess these differences will be exaggerated on lower liquidity games, only if for a few seconds.

[Kai]

Yeah I know is essentially the same market. But the prices on offer for can still differ by a couple of ticks, right? And I guess these differences will be exaggerated on lower liquidity games, only if for a few seconds.

Yes, there will be gaps on lower liquid markets and getting matched at reasonable prices becomes a serious issue. No real advantage for you there unless you're going to fully automate advanced market making bots. I would stick to the liquid markets.

[Jukebox]

Is there any kind of software / quick way to essentially instanteously calculate whether one gets better odds on backing "overs" or laying "correct score"? I am not fast enough on my mental calculations...

No need for special software - you can use BA Excel if you want to explore this

[aidenrn810]

At the end of Month 2 still good "slowandsteady" progress, just short of £2,000 profit....

GOLF lays. UP 178.43 ROI +50%

HORSE lays. UP 160.76 ROI +31%

Football CS's. UP 1,418.03 ROI +259%

(£250 starting bank) is at £207.87 ROI -17%

BF & Smarkets screenshots since 29th Oct are attached to my twitter feed @slowandsteadyp1

[darchas]

From the Psychoff screenshot I see that he's been scalping under 3.5 market, so I don't see how a last gasp goal at 96 min would have affected him?

Thanks for pointing out about aiming to get matched at a higher / lower price than that is on offer - that's what I thought about already. Will try to implement this more in the future/

Can't obviously speak for him but I think he was anticipating a late goal and has placed a lay bet, probably somewhere around 2s and probably on the correct score market or on Betdaq, whichever one was more liquid. When the teams are separated by only a single goal then the game can obviously completely open up because teams become desperate to try and change the result. So it the price is right (big if) it makes more sense to catch a goal in this situation rather than when a team is leading 3-0 because the goal incentive drastically drops off from either team since the game is effectively over.

Obviously when you place a lay bet there is not much else to do other than wait for the goal, so if a good trader has the ability to safely scalp any market then why not scalp in the meantime, once the price on the current under drops below 3.0 the tick size of course becomes smaller and the higher number of ticks makes this price range more suitable to scalping, that is a clever way to apply 2 separate strategies on the same market, and if the goal doesn't come then Psychoff can at least count on the scalping to get something out of this particular game, although in this case both strategies seemed to deliver.

Hopefully I am not revealing any of Psychoff's trading secrets, I think those are just basic market mechanics There are of course many ways to scalp different markets, hundreds probably, it can definitely be a powerful edge in itself because like I previously said, it's a universal skill and well worth investing the time to develop.

This is a really useful insight into the screenshot and result. I must confess when i first saw it i couldn't appreciate what lay behind it. Cheers for that Kai.

[darchas]

At the end of Month 2 still good "slowandsteady" progress, just short of £2,000 profit....

GOLF lays. UP 178.43 ROI +50%

HORSE lays. UP 160.76 ROI +31%

Football CS's. UP 1,418.03 ROI +259%

(£250 starting bank) is at £207.87 ROI -17%

BF & Smarkets screenshots since 29th Oct are attached to my twitter feed @slowandsteadyp1

Looking good. If i may ask, how much effort are you putting in pre match vs inplay? As a football trader particularity interested in the weight you give to historical stats against what you're witnessing (or not) inplay. Although any thoughts on the other sports appreciated also.

[aidenrn810]

Stats are used for getting the right game selection pre-match, but this is automated so just 20 mins or so effort per day to down select to between 1 & 4 games a day.

In-play I get goal alerts and look in detail at half-time, 60 & 75 mins to consider trading out for a loss or not.

Overall not hugely time consuming, but I just need to be alert during the game.

[ShaunWhite]

At the end of Month 2 still good "slowandsteady" progress, just short of £2,000 profit....

GOLF lays. UP 178.43 ROI +50%

HORSE lays. UP 160.76 ROI +31%

Football CS's. UP 1,418.03 ROI +259%

(£250 starting bank) is at £207.87 ROI -17%

BF & Smarkets screenshots since 29th Oct are attached to my twitter feed @slowandsteadyp1

How can you have a 2 grand profit and an overall negative ROI?

[Derek27]

At the end of Month 2 still good "slowandsteady" progress, just short of £2,000 profit....

GOLF lays. UP 178.43 ROI +50%

HORSE lays. UP 160.76 ROI +31%

Football CS's. UP 1,418.03 ROI +259%

(£250 starting bank) is at £207.87 ROI -17%

BF & Smarkets screenshots since 29th Oct are attached to my twitter feed @slowandsteadyp1

How can you have a 2 grand profit and an overall negative ROI?

Shouldn't that be £2078?

[brimson25]

Aidenm - do you ever do Champions League games? Or do you religiously stick to leagues with more form?

[aidenrn810]

Shaun & Derek

My 2-month summary covers the four strategies that I am currently running with.

The last of these 4 has a negative ROI, but the other 3 have much larger positive ROI's.

Overall across the four strategies the profit is over £2000 (including the current loss from strategy 4)

Hopefully this makes sense, but read back through this thread in full if not.



Brimson - yes I regularly do Champions League games. If you see my twitter screenshots you'll see quite a few. Last night the Valencia and Liverpool games were good winners for me & Bayern's game just now is going well.

[aidenrn810]

Actually my adding up is wrong.......I'm at £1800 profit......not £2000.....(..just yet)

Correction made on Twitter as well.