Longevity concerns

[RickS_39]

This is a practical formula to contemplate. I have no doubt about the financial benefits, so from that perspective it's a good trade. It's when considering the long term trade off between taking time to master this or something else depending on the future health of Betfair.

Well, most skills you'd gain in sports trading should carry over to other trading arenas, so not necessarily a dead end either way. Same core principles.

I don't think it's the details that will make you successful, but the framework behind them. If you know the price of something, that something can be anything.

It also means a lot of the advice translates over as well, but it's always a tricky dilemma for traders, the instinct to help beginners VS the risk of eroding your own edge.

You naturally want to help those starting out because you see a part of yourself in them, but at the same time they're your near future competitors and you're just helping that competition catch up, which WILL hurt your bottom line in the long run, depending on how many of those details you (over)share.

Oh yeah I appreciate that. I'm far from looking for hand outs on advice and tips, i'm more than willing to put in the work independently. My aim on this thread is to gather some insight on the health of the industry and what some believe the longer term future looks like
Your other point about transferable skills is certainly valid and worth me keeping in mind.

[Kai]

My aim on this thread is to gather some insight on the health of the industry and what some believe the longer term future looks like

Don't think views have changed much since the last thread from last year, one I linked earlier.

Football's a safe bet but markets aren't as big as you'd like and aren't as liquid as they look like, often feels pretty underwhelming with how massive the sport actually is. Really wish it would get cricket numbers.

[Kai]

I'm far from looking for hand outs on advice and tips, i'm more than willing to put in the work independently.

Of course. Enjoy it though, it's a funny old game, if you're not an overly emotional guy you will love manual trading

And watch out for spoilers, they're everywhere! So if you don't want season 1 and season 2 spoiled, possibly even season 3, then probably stop reading past this point

Because trading will always seem pretty straightforward at first glance, plus our brains are basically pattern-seeking neural networks that are constantly processing info from our surroundings trying to predict what happens next, which sounds like a match made in heaven.

And yet when you start trading it will often feel so counter-intuitive and alien even, wtf?

But markets are not natural environments, they're complex adaptive systems filled with randomness, noise, overreactions and feedback loops designed to trick those instincts. What feels intuitively "right", like chasing momentum or avoiding losses, often leads to bad trading decisions, like when the market snaps back the moment you get involved. Or a match that looks a guaranteed goal fest but somehow ends up goalless, making you question everything, etc.

And yet some traders seem to trade perfectly well based off instinct and intuition. So again, wtf?

But these "instincts" in trading aren't the same as raw intuition, it's basically just pattern recognition honed over long periods. These traders have internalized market nuances they may not even be able to articulate or quantify. Think of elite footballers who always seem to be in the right place for a tap-in, it's their brain processing thousands of past plays subconsciously, and making high-probability decisions in real-time without overanalysis.

Anyway, hope that helps with the quantifying part, HF

[Euler]

I'm not certain but I think that's the ethos behind BA being sold at close to cost price, and to an extent the Flumine open source project. Rather than profiteering or keeping the edge (software) to themselves it helps some people to be profitable, which ultimately creates more growth than it does wallet threatening competition.

I think that's a fair summary.

If we fully costed it, it would be substantially less viable. But that's not the most important thing now.

Of course it was created as an independent bit of software to start, but needed funding to move forward. So it's all sort of worked out in time.

[Euler]

Wouldn't directly call any trading software an edge though. As good a tool as it is, it's still just a tool, and as such it can only be as sharp as its user. Ideally a trader should be able to profit using the BF website as well.

Where we have tried to take Bet Angel, is to give as many options and tools for people to create an edge for themselves. I think that's more relevant now as other software was clearly created just to exploit the market. So I think your choice of software is likely to give you an edge because of that.

[csewell1987]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

[ShaunWhite]

It's not gone, lots of people make a good living from it still and there's no sign the exchange is closing any time soon. The volume has declined in the last 5yrs years but maybe leveling off, and it's not at a point it's no longer viable. Depends on your earning expectations though.

If you're considering automation then why be limited to horses? There's strategies that aren't dependant on the sport you're running them on.

[Fugazi]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

If you work in software (I take this to mean you can code and are not the receptionist) then you're at a massive advantage already for automation. Start collecting data yesterday , worry about the rest later.

[csewell1987]

It's not gone, lots of people make a good living from it still and there's no sign the exchange is closing any time soon. The volume has declined in the last 5yrs years but maybe leveling off, and it's not at a point it's no longer viable. Depends on your earning expectations though.

If you're considering automation then why be limited to horses? There's strategies that aren't dependant on the sport you're running them on.

My main reasoning was I do not have a large data set built up and by the time I do things could have gotten a lot worse. So my focus was horse racing purely due to TPD, which I believe provides an edge when tied in with automation. I already generate my own books based on form but this requires my own knowledge too so I am limited to the better quality races (less unknowns plus where my interest lies and time).

[csewell1987]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

If you work in software (I take this to mean you can code and are not the receptionist) then you're at a massive advantage already for automation. Start collecting data yesterday , worry about the rest later.

Yeah I write code daily as part of my job. That was my thinking though, I have no data collection at all and by the time I have something meaningful to go at things could be even worse. That was why TPD interested me, I would imagine it's very much trial and error but you have something immediately to go at.

[Fugazi]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

If you work in software (I take this to mean you can code and are not the receptionist) then you're at a massive advantage already for automation. Start collecting data yesterday , worry about the rest later.

Yeah I write code daily as part of my job. That was my thinking though, I have no data collection at all and by the time I have something meaningful to go at things could be even worse. That was why TPD interested me, I would imagine it's very much trial and error but you have something immediately to go at.

Not too late. I started around about 18 months ago and became profitable (for a small amount ) after about a year. Did have a good background in poker however so did pick up some aspects quickly. But with your background you can probably also progress quickly as you can analyse data. I wasted a lot of time trying the trial and error approach, only to discover I had no means of scaling as I didn't know why my automations were makings some (small) profit.

Honestly, get collecting data asap. Then with that in the background get digging around the forums some more.

[csewell1987]

If you work in software (I take this to mean you can code and are not the receptionist) then you're at a massive advantage already for automation. Start collecting data yesterday , worry about the rest later.

Yeah I write code daily as part of my job. That was my thinking though, I have no data collection at all and by the time I have something meaningful to go at things could be even worse. That was why TPD interested me, I would imagine it's very much trial and error but you have something immediately to go at.

Not too late. I started around about 18 months ago and became profitable (for a small amount ) after about a year. Did have a good background in poker however so did pick up some aspects quickly. But with your background you can probably also progress quickly as you can analyse data. I wasted a lot of time trying the trial and error approach, only to discover I had no means of scaling as I didn't know why my automations were makings some (small) profit.

Honestly, get collecting data asap. Then with that in the background get digging around the forums some more.

Apologies as I know this has been covered elsewhere but can't remember where... what is it you need to be collecting? Price points? I presume it depends what angle you are going for? Also, maybe not the best place to ask, but do you solely use bet angel and it's automation capabilities?

[jamesedwards]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

It's absolutely possible. I started in 2018 and was full-time profitable within 3 months, but I think I got very lucky.

I'm in-running only with manual trading making the bulk of my profit, but I've been able to learn and add profitable automated activity too over time with TPD. I had zero programming background, but had a natural knack for reading horse races.

You might well face into problems with account checks if you make early losses, especially if you have no existing salary to declare. The pros will mostly keep a very healthy contingency in their account to avoid ever having to risk a deposit. Consider using the very smallest possible stakes initially and grow very slowly to avoid blowing any bank large enough to make Betfair KYC come knocking.

[csewell1987]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

It's absolutely possible. I started in 2018 and was full-time profitable within 3 months, but I think I got very lucky.

I'm in-running only with manual trading making the bulk of my profit, but I've been able to learn and add profitable automated activity too over time with TPD. I had zero programming background, but had a natural knack for reading horse races.

You might well face into problems with account checks if you make early losses, especially if you have no existing salary to declare. The pros will mostly keep a very healthy contingency in their account to avoid ever having to risk a deposit. Consider using the very smallest possible stakes initially and grow very slowly to avoid blowing any bank large enough to make Betfair KYC come knocking.

So without TPD would you be able to make a living from this? That was my thought with TPD, using that as the focal point, as I don't have any data collected so that would be my route in. I am not just talking of following it blindly. I would attempt to create a book from the data it presents me, as I have done with form, but also look for flaws in it and try to exploit these.

[jamesedwards]

In people's honest opinion, is this still a viable option to do full time purely from a horse racing perspective or have those days gone? I am talking from scratch, with no bank built up from when Betfair markets were at their peak and liquidity was high. Also, no data built up over the years to work with and the inability to deposit large sums due to KYC checks. Have been trialling TPD, albeit just using betmover, but feels like automation is a must with it. This is no problem as I work in software by trade but I know it's going to take a lot of effort and my worry is the declining liquidity will render it a pointless effort.

It's absolutely possible. I started in 2018 and was full-time profitable within 3 months, but I think I got very lucky.

I'm in-running only with manual trading making the bulk of my profit, but I've been able to learn and add profitable automated activity too over time with TPD. I had zero programming background, but had a natural knack for reading horse races.

You might well face into problems with account checks if you make early losses, especially if you have no existing salary to declare. The pros will mostly keep a very healthy contingency in their account to avoid ever having to risk a deposit. Consider using the very smallest possible stakes initially and grow very slowly to avoid blowing any bank large enough to make Betfair KYC come knocking.

So without TPD would you be able to make a living from this? That was my thought with TPD, using that as the focal point, as I don't have any data collected so that would be my route in. I am not just talking of following it blindly. I would attempt to create a book from the data it presents me, as I have done with form, but also look for flaws in it and try to exploit these.

Absolutely. TPD for me is a small part of it. I'm not data based trading though, I trade mostly manually by eye.