Impossible
Yeah have noticed the fill rates being slower,
being at the front of the queue no longer means you are in reality at the front of the queue from what i can see, other things seem to happen first.
I guess it all depends if xm only effects bets that can't be matched in the regular way, like BF have said
.
but It could be that xm is actually treated as a priority and that all bets are matched that way when it's possible to make a few quid .
being at the front of the queue no longer means you are in reality at the front of the queue from what i can see, other things seem to happen first.
I guess it all depends if xm only effects bets that can't be matched in the regular way, like BF have said
. but It could be that xm is actually treated as a priority and that all bets are matched that way when it's possible to make a few quid
.
Last edited by freddy on Wed May 18, 2011 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Xm should really have affected it that much though, only a bit. The thing that suprised us was how much it seemed to be affecting fill rate. We simulated the changes before they were implemented and what happened when it was switched on was way different from what we expected. Which is why we are checking data.
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rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
Between the 10 minute mark and the Off some big abnormal swings all day. Tiger Webb's race at Lingfield great example. Massive see-sawing swings across Tiger Webb, Circus Act & Rainy Champion.
rg
rg
Interesting to hear what you guys have to say about changes in trading. Sounds like its getting tougher.
New players in the market? Cross matching? Betfair? Too much knowledge of trading now widely avaliable to the public and only scraps left?
Hopefully this stuff won't affect me, since all my trades are selection-based (long-term swing trades based on form-fundamentals).
New players in the market? Cross matching? Betfair? Too much knowledge of trading now widely avaliable to the public and only scraps left?
Hopefully this stuff won't affect me, since all my trades are selection-based (long-term swing trades based on form-fundamentals).
[quote="Zenyatta"Too much knowledge of trading now widely avaliable to the public and only scraps left?[/quote]
I doubt it's that as most of the stuff I see out there is complete rubbish!
It would be a surprise to see the market getting easier as time went on but I think too factors are behind the recent shift. Betfair's inability to grow and the curious effect of cross matching. Cross matching really shouldn't have made a huge difference but the fact is has indicates that maybe all is not as it seems with cross matching.
The market has generally been stable for some time but the odd dislocation does happen, it just takes a little bit of getting used to.
I doubt it's that as most of the stuff I see out there is complete rubbish!
It would be a surprise to see the market getting easier as time went on but I think too factors are behind the recent shift. Betfair's inability to grow and the curious effect of cross matching. Cross matching really shouldn't have made a huge difference but the fact is has indicates that maybe all is not as it seems with cross matching.
The market has generally been stable for some time but the odd dislocation does happen, it just takes a little bit of getting used to.
I don't see how cross matching can affect anything a trader may be doing since it is a background action. Although the website may flash a few odds that are not appearing on the API, this is nothing new for BF. Anyone who records the market action will have always seen bets being matched (in the background) without being able to see them in the ladder and the "match" only becomes observable when the matched amount increases (at RHS).
Only Euler is being specific in this thread about a market change when he detects a "slowdown in the rate of his order filling". Everyone else is talking in general terms without detailing any change they have seen. I don't have Aspergers but I do like to read precise comments that can be assessed and proven/disproven.
The markets have changed a bit since I started trading and my own charting shows the markets as less jittery and much more decisive in movement. If cross matching is doing anything it is making the market smoother (notwithstanding the mad spiker, very volatile markets etc). The important thing about decisive markets is that getting a large sum matched when there is a momentum move is not plain sailing since there is always new money being added at the front of the queue. (note: if this new money is virtual it will not appear in the API, so it has to be real money).
Not every trader has BA and their comments are unlikely to appear on these pages but if I had to repeat a comment most frequently used about trading (going back long before xm), it would be; "the markets have changed"
Only Euler is being specific in this thread about a market change when he detects a "slowdown in the rate of his order filling". Everyone else is talking in general terms without detailing any change they have seen. I don't have Aspergers but I do like to read precise comments that can be assessed and proven/disproven.
The markets have changed a bit since I started trading and my own charting shows the markets as less jittery and much more decisive in movement. If cross matching is doing anything it is making the market smoother (notwithstanding the mad spiker, very volatile markets etc). The important thing about decisive markets is that getting a large sum matched when there is a momentum move is not plain sailing since there is always new money being added at the front of the queue. (note: if this new money is virtual it will not appear in the API, so it has to be real money).
Not every trader has BA and their comments are unlikely to appear on these pages but if I had to repeat a comment most frequently used about trading (going back long before xm), it would be; "the markets have changed"
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
I think I understand the basics of xm, but can someone post a link that has a full explanation? thanks.
James, You are wrong in your assumptions about cross matching not having any impact. I have a lot of data showing precisely what has happened.
I can see the exact change that has taken since cross matching has come in and can put it in numbers and it does affect traders, whatever your style. It affects some markets more than others and some styles more than others. If you are a swing trader then it will most likely have less impact on you, but it will still have an impact.
It was a well established trader that highlighted to me this behaviour after it was switched on. It's subtle but significant, as it stops you from getting filled as quickly as you were and that increases your net risk in the market.
I can see the exact change that has taken since cross matching has come in and can put it in numbers and it does affect traders, whatever your style. It affects some markets more than others and some styles more than others. If you are a swing trader then it will most likely have less impact on you, but it will still have an impact.
It was a well established trader that highlighted to me this behaviour after it was switched on. It's subtle but significant, as it stops you from getting filled as quickly as you were and that increases your net risk in the market.
http://bdp.betfair.com/index.php?option ... &Itemid=62superfrank wrote:I think I understand the basics of xm, but can someone post a link that has a full explanation? thanks.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I spent ages trying to determine any effect XM might have on my trading. I spent many weeks trying to find a significant issue and I couldn't really "see" one. I spoke with Euler about this and he said it was probably too early to make any comment, he needed to collect the data and then decide.
I have found it actually helps me with my current method. I also know that it could change again and I will have to adapt. Because I am predominantly looking for larger trends I suppose that Euler's comments about swing trading back up my findings but my comments are made purely from my actions whilst trading and not from data analysis.
Please don't get me wrong, I still make mistakes but I don't believe those mistakes are as a result of XM....that's me messing it up!
I have found it actually helps me with my current method. I also know that it could change again and I will have to adapt. Because I am predominantly looking for larger trends I suppose that Euler's comments about swing trading back up my findings but my comments are made purely from my actions whilst trading and not from data analysis.
Please don't get me wrong, I still make mistakes but I don't believe those mistakes are as a result of XM....that's me messing it up!
Hi Euler,
I didn't actually claim that xm had no effect but rather I didn't see any effect. But you are correct in that with my style being more of trend trading I am less affected by large amounts not being matched quickly (stakes are lower generally for trend/swing traders).
I'm sure your detailed figures are more specific than my own when it comes to matching larger sums but the logic of cross matching (if it being applied as per the press release) "should" mean that matching now has a new resource, the virtual sum, to assist in bet matching. If matching is being "slowed" then the implication is that BF have applied other (unpublished) XM rules to cause this eg smaller amounts are being matched "ahead" of the large bet. I do realise that this may not be visible and my charting isn't fast enough to detect it. There are many things happening in a ladder that even at the fastest setting it is impossible to detect, eg if I repeatedly offered small sums in front of your large bet, they will get taken without ever appearing in the ladder view (I have tested this).
On a positive note, I had my best day yesterday so xm, if it is having an effect, may be suiting some syles more than others.
I look forward to seeing your data and the implications for traders. Any idea when you will be publishing this?
I didn't actually claim that xm had no effect but rather I didn't see any effect. But you are correct in that with my style being more of trend trading I am less affected by large amounts not being matched quickly (stakes are lower generally for trend/swing traders).
I'm sure your detailed figures are more specific than my own when it comes to matching larger sums but the logic of cross matching (if it being applied as per the press release) "should" mean that matching now has a new resource, the virtual sum, to assist in bet matching. If matching is being "slowed" then the implication is that BF have applied other (unpublished) XM rules to cause this eg smaller amounts are being matched "ahead" of the large bet. I do realise that this may not be visible and my charting isn't fast enough to detect it. There are many things happening in a ladder that even at the fastest setting it is impossible to detect, eg if I repeatedly offered small sums in front of your large bet, they will get taken without ever appearing in the ladder view (I have tested this).
On a positive note, I had my best day yesterday so xm, if it is having an effect, may be suiting some syles more than others.
I look forward to seeing your data and the implications for traders. Any idea when you will be publishing this?