How often does the market get it right.

[SeaHorseRacing]

I hope the above makes sense..

What I’m trying to pinpoint is.

It is much easier to consistently price a horse 20% or 30% or even 50%.. because if you price a horse 50% and betting it at the odds of 30% the industry margin is still big enough for to lose...

However if you can consistently price a horse 4% and and back it at 3% you have a huge advantage in the market..

How can you really be so sure with a 1% margin and be consistent?

This is where the value truly lives... horses price 10% or less and being consistently right...

This also means you could back hundred and hundreds of losers and still be massively ahead long term...

Backing horses at 2% could potentially have a losing run into the 1,000s.

You will do better long term backing favourites if you concentrated on pricing the 100/1 & 50/1 shots more accurately.. if there is 2 100/1 shots, 2 50/1 shots and a 33/1 shot in the market... these odds imply that is a total of 7% of the market.

However if you think these horses have a real chance of 12% of the market you automatically know that the favourite or shorter price horses are a market to stay away..

Too many people conctrate on pricing or creating tissue on fancied horses... improve you skill on the big prices and your automatically know which races are of interest.

[Derek27]

I have this great system: If you back a horse that was born in July that is ridden by a jockey who was married in August at a price that is lower than the age of your dog then the ROI is huge! Unfortunately I can't provide any logic or evidence to quantify that it works so please don't ask.

Mr Pied Piper.
2 Poor House Road.
Punterville.

Logic and evidence all on the website - have a look if you want or don’t bother up to you.

What website???

[Derek27]

Been on here for over 2 years..and now remember why I don't pop in and share/help more. With any luck we will have opened a few minds and they will come back to tell you all. GL see you all in 2 years when I forget again.

Sorry, I misread the date.

[Valda]

Anyone on twitter tonight - they dragged the old guard out.
Have a look.

[gazuty]

Type two gambler's fallacy, as defined by Gideon Keren and Charles Lewis, occurs when a gambler underestimates how many observations are needed to detect a favorable outcome, such as watching a roulette wheel for a length of time and then betting on the numbers that appear most often. Recency bias.

Gazuty would adapt this and say looking at the last 7 years of results of a particular race, say the Cox plate, and then thinking that will have any baring on today's results is misguided. Think about it.

[Derek27]

Anyone on twitter tonight - they dragged the old guard out.
Have a look.

Have a look where? Still haven't a clue what you're asking us to look at???

[Derek27]

If anyone's interested it's £299 per year for a new way to lose money!

I paid £5 for a system when I was 13 and quickly realised they're all garbage. They've got more sophisticated now but it's much the same thing - praying on people who can't make money betting, which is the majority.

If you believe you're making money (and an impressive but secretive ROI) using this method, my advice is to keep accurate records of every bet placed over a long period of time and know yourself exactly what your ROI is.

[Valda]

If anyone's interested it's £299 per year for a new way to lose money!

I paid £5 for a system when I was 13 and quickly realised they're all garbage. They've got more sophisticated now but it's much the same thing - praying on people who can't make money betting, which is the majority.

If you believe you're making money (and an impressive but secretive ROI) using this method, my advice is to keep accurate records of every bet placed over a long period of time and know yourself exactly what your ROI is.

Busy on twitter last night and someone called Derek even got a mention in one of the tweets.
Quite a few signed up for the trial last night but it’s obviously not for you.
Good luck for the future D been amusing talking to you.

[ruthlessimon]

I do find this kinda thing odd.

Playin' around in Excel (hasn't been traded so might not be an edge (cause I only found it today) - though probably enough for a tipster service - & probably more profitable as a tip via subscriptions, than in its current form !!)

.. but these are my babies man. I might not even tell Shaun about this one cause finding any sort of quantitative lay edge (pre-race) is bl00dy difficult!

Selling it for £299 a mth, would be like selling one of my arms!

[sionascaig]

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.

grr- i hate being a cynic!!

btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol

I am in the same group as Valda and I can say for a fact he does not own it..he like all others in the group are helping spread the word, as all in the group are enjoying a very high ROI far better than any of you in here would think and are just trying help those who don't do so well get more out of there racing. As for the 7 day trial nothing forces you to go on to pay and no details are taken for you to have the trial. You can see the results everyday on twitter, or read this months issue of 3 Furlongs Out....

posting.php?mode=quote&f=2&p=171466

Looks like this is the same discussion / system. Thought it was interesting that in GBDundee's answer above - the reason he knows Vlada doesn't own the system is because he does )

Mike I had a quick look at you app and it is very pretty indeed - well done. The videos however are a real struggle to understand. The methodology described in one was so wrong its difficult to know where to start.

Regarding Decomez posts here - they seem to mirror Valda's in the original.

[sionascaig]

Opps meant to post this in the Racestatapp discussion...