Taking the plunge.. Advice Needed!!
Hi trader44
I am making the same mistakes as you have outlined here. Did you get over this? Are you successful now? Right now I think I need someone to sit beside me and hit me in the face with a hammer every time I go in-play. For some reason I am just refusing to learn. I have set up a green all 5 seconds before the off time but I often get robbed by a jump in the odds at this time, and I often turn it off just before it activates. I can trade for maybe the first 2 hours every day and it looks like I am going to make a decent profit. But then I start to get over-confident or careless and I will get myself caught on the wrong side of a drifter or steamer. I don’t know why I stop getting out when a trade goes bad after a few hours of trading, and I can’t believe that I am still going in-play when I know that this is where I incur my heaviest loses.
I am making the same mistakes as you have outlined here. Did you get over this? Are you successful now? Right now I think I need someone to sit beside me and hit me in the face with a hammer every time I go in-play. For some reason I am just refusing to learn. I have set up a green all 5 seconds before the off time but I often get robbed by a jump in the odds at this time, and I often turn it off just before it activates. I can trade for maybe the first 2 hours every day and it looks like I am going to make a decent profit. But then I start to get over-confident or careless and I will get myself caught on the wrong side of a drifter or steamer. I don’t know why I stop getting out when a trade goes bad after a few hours of trading, and I can’t believe that I am still going in-play when I know that this is where I incur my heaviest loses.
JPK65, you are facing the biggest reason for failure in this game, an inability to accept a loss. I was there many times in the past, the last occasion was an eye watering loss of £2000 on New Years Day 2008 when I had a trade on the Arsenal v West Ham go against me. I decided to let it run, as I only needed West Ham to keep it at 0-0 for 10mins and I'd be OK. Of course, it didn't happen - Eduardo scored after 2mins and Arsenal won 2-0. I told myself when I put £1000 wages back into BF that I would never do that again, and I haven't.
I have said this so many times here, that I have the piss taken out of me, but we see so many newbies like yourself falling into this trap, so I will say it again - the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one, is what they do when faced with a red screen.
You need to accept that you will not win 100% of the time, you will get red screens. You need to embrace them, and learn from them, not get angry and then chase the loss.
I have also said that psychology is massive in this game, especially for ex-punters. When betting we expect a healthy amount of losers, but at least we expect a run for our money. If you back a horse and he falls at the first, we just accept that. However, what we struggle to accept is losing on a horse before the race has started, so our gambling instincts kick in and we let the losses explode
There's no magic wand, you need to find what works for you in eradicating problems. I had messages blue tacked to the wall, including a print off from BF of my £2000 loss, just to remind me what happens when I let bad trades go IP
I have said this so many times here, that I have the piss taken out of me, but we see so many newbies like yourself falling into this trap, so I will say it again - the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one, is what they do when faced with a red screen.
You need to accept that you will not win 100% of the time, you will get red screens. You need to embrace them, and learn from them, not get angry and then chase the loss.
I have also said that psychology is massive in this game, especially for ex-punters. When betting we expect a healthy amount of losers, but at least we expect a run for our money. If you back a horse and he falls at the first, we just accept that. However, what we struggle to accept is losing on a horse before the race has started, so our gambling instincts kick in and we let the losses explode
There's no magic wand, you need to find what works for you in eradicating problems. I had messages blue tacked to the wall, including a print off from BF of my £2000 loss, just to remind me what happens when I let bad trades go IP
Thanks for the reply ‘LeTiss’
I think you have a point when you refer to ex-punters. That’s the big problem I have with a red screen. At least when I was backing horses I would get a run for my money. When a trade goes bad I feel like a fool since I am losing money no matter which horse wins the race. I think it is the gambler in me that’s wants a chance to win. Yet I know that the odds are stacked against me when I keep going in-play to fill outstanding orders, since I am only looking to win about a tenner at a time but I am risking hundreds.
I think you have a point when you refer to ex-punters. That’s the big problem I have with a red screen. At least when I was backing horses I would get a run for my money. When a trade goes bad I feel like a fool since I am losing money no matter which horse wins the race. I think it is the gambler in me that’s wants a chance to win. Yet I know that the odds are stacked against me when I keep going in-play to fill outstanding orders, since I am only looking to win about a tenner at a time but I am risking hundreds.
Let me put it like this -
If you have a £100 back trade on 3.65, but it goes against you. The horse drifts to 4.10, and you will lose £10.98 when redding up.
If you hadn't placed that initial trade, would you be happy to place a bet of £89.02 that he will go from 4.10 to 3.65 In Play?
My guess is, you wouldn't even consider it, so why are you prepared to blow your bank, just to chase that £10.98 loss?
I'm not talking down to anyone, because I used to do it myself. Once you get out of that habit, you see things very differently
If you have a £100 back trade on 3.65, but it goes against you. The horse drifts to 4.10, and you will lose £10.98 when redding up.
If you hadn't placed that initial trade, would you be happy to place a bet of £89.02 that he will go from 4.10 to 3.65 In Play?
My guess is, you wouldn't even consider it, so why are you prepared to blow your bank, just to chase that £10.98 loss?
I'm not talking down to anyone, because I used to do it myself. Once you get out of that habit, you see things very differently
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10559
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
JPK65, LeTiss really knows what he's talking about when it comes to this topic. Don't just read his comments, really really take them in.
I'm not the done deal yet but I already know that psycology is the key and I recognise your issues. It's easy to brush it aside but from day 1 you need to work on understanding your own mind not just understanding the markets. This isn't a thing you can do with just large amounts of brute 'ability'. If you're the sort of person who can usually turn your hand to most things, it will drive you crazy unless you can literally change your mind.
It's an unoriginal suggestion but try having a read of Trading in the Zone, it's a bit repetative as a read and I started page flipping after half way through...but then I got it on audiobook (as my 1st month's free book on Audible) and I got on much better with it. The repetition seems to reinforce the points rather than just being annoying. Each to their own though. The guy reading it speaks a bit quick but at 90% playback it's quite hypnotic. I usually can't sleep but I rarely get more then 30mins listened to and I wake up next morning tangled in my headphone lead
Last time I did that I was 15 and John Peel was the reason.
I'm not the done deal yet but I already know that psycology is the key and I recognise your issues. It's easy to brush it aside but from day 1 you need to work on understanding your own mind not just understanding the markets. This isn't a thing you can do with just large amounts of brute 'ability'. If you're the sort of person who can usually turn your hand to most things, it will drive you crazy unless you can literally change your mind.
It's an unoriginal suggestion but try having a read of Trading in the Zone, it's a bit repetative as a read and I started page flipping after half way through...but then I got it on audiobook (as my 1st month's free book on Audible) and I got on much better with it. The repetition seems to reinforce the points rather than just being annoying. Each to their own though. The guy reading it speaks a bit quick but at 90% playback it's quite hypnotic. I usually can't sleep but I rarely get more then 30mins listened to and I wake up next morning tangled in my headphone lead
Last time I did that I was 15 and John Peel was the reason.-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10559
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Don't feel like a fool, feel like a trader. It's the market that you're gambling on, not a horse race.
It's gambling on horse races that's foolish, because JPK you know that you lose when you gamble on horse races. If not I guess you wouldn't be learning to trade?
I've come to terms with the fact that there'll always be a part of me that's a gambler, but now I only gamble on the markets. Horse races are added to the long list of things I have no interest in gambling on, because I'm terrible it. When a market goes in-play it's a totally different world, like footballers suddenly getting tennis rackets out. My event has finished. If I mess about trying to win on horses racing as well, #1 I don't and #2 I'm missing what's happening on my next market where I actually stand a chance. And like LeTiss said, in-play is a world of some very crappy propositions unless they're very well planned.
Or, perhap try and imagine that trading isn't free...imagine it costs a tenner to have a go, sometimes you get it back or a profit, sometimes you lose your whole tenner. This gamble is on the market, absolutely nothing to do with gambling on horse races. Your aim is to win your tenner back, and then some. That way even a small red can feel like a win.
Very well put, LeTiss - that's a great way to look at it.LeTiss wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2017 9:39 pmLet me put it like this -
If you have a £100 back trade on 3.65, but it goes against you. The horse drifts to 4.10, and you will lose £10.98 when redding up.
If you hadn't placed that initial trade, would you be happy to place a bet of £89.02 that he will go from 4.10 to 3.65 In Play?
My guess is, you wouldn't even consider it, so why are you prepared to blow your bank, just to chase that £10.98 loss?
I'm not talking down to anyone, because I used to do it myself. Once you get out of that habit, you see things very differently
JPK65 to answer your questions " the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one, is what they do when faced with a red screen."
couldnt of put it better myself ..
letiss summed it up perfectly.what i will add is that when you start off ie a new trader no one and i mean no one wants to take a loss not even 50p but with experience you really do start to see the losses as part of trading ,once you start to see them as part of trading then the work can begin on accepting them " there is a difference ", do i actually like taking a loss now, of course not i would love to make a profit on every single race but since accepting a stake loss instead of turning it into a loss of 10 times my stake , then trading really does start to get easier..
JPK65
if you can identify when your habits come in its usually its in an instant " then you can start to apply the antidotes to them which we all know is discipline " easy to say "
and i do a lot of visualisation ie i visualise taking a loss and how i will react also visualise my day going well and getting into the zone " a great book i would recommend " trading in the zone "
i believe its at least 80% psychology thats the key to success in this job
couldnt of put it better myself ..
letiss summed it up perfectly.what i will add is that when you start off ie a new trader no one and i mean no one wants to take a loss not even 50p but with experience you really do start to see the losses as part of trading ,once you start to see them as part of trading then the work can begin on accepting them " there is a difference ", do i actually like taking a loss now, of course not i would love to make a profit on every single race but since accepting a stake loss instead of turning it into a loss of 10 times my stake , then trading really does start to get easier..
JPK65
if you can identify when your habits come in its usually its in an instant " then you can start to apply the antidotes to them which we all know is discipline " easy to say "
and i do a lot of visualisation ie i visualise taking a loss and how i will react also visualise my day going well and getting into the zone " a great book i would recommend " trading in the zone "
i believe its at least 80% psychology thats the key to success in this job
i will also add started reading lots of books on habits etc " which i still do today " and then started working on my habits constantly.. i was a very scared/panicky trader
getting out of profitable trades way to quick and letting losses ride way to big.
i think a lot of traders dont talk about is fear of losing, it can keep you trapped and stop you making progress. so for instance you see a price and you know its pretty much going to go in the direction you think it is, but then you hesitate and dont press because you dont want to lose only to see your price plummet in the right direction. afterwards your thinking why didnt i press and that feeling is called learned helplessness which also keeps you trapped in negative feelings so as you can see its a vicious circle .."
out pops jim bowen shouting LETS HAVE A LOOK WHAT YOU COULD OF WON "
theres a saying that sums it up for me
(living with a fear of helplessness is far worse than pushing through fear itself )
getting out of profitable trades way to quick and letting losses ride way to big.
i think a lot of traders dont talk about is fear of losing, it can keep you trapped and stop you making progress. so for instance you see a price and you know its pretty much going to go in the direction you think it is, but then you hesitate and dont press because you dont want to lose only to see your price plummet in the right direction. afterwards your thinking why didnt i press and that feeling is called learned helplessness which also keeps you trapped in negative feelings so as you can see its a vicious circle .."
out pops jim bowen shouting LETS HAVE A LOOK WHAT YOU COULD OF WON "
theres a saying that sums it up for me
(living with a fear of helplessness is far worse than pushing through fear itself )
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2160
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Problem is guys, you’ve brushed over a massive topic. Edge. If JPK doesn't have an edge, then no amount of psychology advice will help him.
I reckon JPK genuinely doesn't know where to exit his trades - that's an edge problem, not a psychology problem.
I reckon JPK genuinely doesn't know where to exit his trades - that's an edge problem, not a psychology problem.
Thanks again for the advice. I am trying to take notice. I think a key work mentioned here is discipline. Sometimes I think I am getting the hang of this trading lark, and then I go and do something silly. Tonight I was going OK. I was taking small losses when the market turned against my positions. I still think I was exiting too early when the market was moving in my favour, but I was slightly ahead. Then I lost my internet connection in the middle of a trade and found myself in a bad position when it returned. Guess what I did next. Yes I let it go in-play. I managed to reduce my red and get out. That was probably the worst thing that could have happened. I then traded on an Irish race although I had been advoiding them up until this point because I have problems reading Irish markets as the odds seem to jump around to erratically for me. Unsurprisingly I made my biggest loss of the session hence far. At this stage I had completely lost my discipline. I missed out a few races and when I came back I got caught on the wrong side of a steaming favourite. I should have quit at that stage and accepted a small lose on my session, but like a fool I again let it go in-play and exited the trade when I had doubled my initial loss. Ruthlessimon you are right to say I have no edge. Sometimes I feel like a headless chicken. Yet trader44 also have a point when he talks about psychology. I sometimes get mad at myself and make silly trades to punish myself further. Overall I think I actually know how to improve my trading results but I do not have the discipline to carry it through. Maybe my Celtic temperament means that I am not really cut out for this game. By the way shaunwhite, I was a careful punter. I used to go through the results in the ‘Weekender’ every week and make lists of horses to back at courses and distances. I wasn’t terrible at it. I don’t think I ever had a losing Cheltenham. I stopped backing horses a few years back when I needed to use my spare time on other pursuits. I thought trading would be a smarter option after coming back and dealing with online bookies who close your account when you show any degree of intelligence. I can’t remember a losing run, like the one I am in now, as a punter.