Some easy money there i recon if you are good with excel in play. Ive had both bf and bd open tonight along side each other and especially towards the end of a race there is what looks like some real easy money. I just saw one race on BF it was trading at 1.01 with plenty stacked on the back side and yet on BD there was 800 at 1.10 offered up.
If only i knew a little bit more than colouring cells in excel and adding cell A1 + B1, Id be all over it.
Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
Manipulated from start to finish I'm afraid. Individuals are targeted as well. I had to suspend all betting and trading using BetAngel last year until I can determine who the culprits are. Whether its Betfair, people using advanced bots or whatever, I still don't know.
Zenyatta, do what I do when things like this happen, stop trading. If forum members work together, and are notified, and enough of us stop trading at the same time on a repeat basis, whoever/whatever is affecting the markets will have to look elsewhere due to the drop in liquidity.
Trading is also about patience, the patience to wait when things like this happen.
Trading is also about patience, the patience to wait when things like this happen.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
What are your suspicions and how will you find out if your not active? I don't disagree with what your saying, about manipulated from start to finish, I'm just interested to know what your actually thinking as you have mentioned it a few times.Zenyatta wrote:Manipulated from start to finish I'm afraid. Individuals are targeted as well. I had to suspend all betting and trading using BetAngel last year until I can determine who the culprits are. Whether its Betfair, people using advanced bots or whatever, I still don't know.
I don't see why they would. I would expect them to carry on, but with lower profits. And meanwhile, all profitable traders would suffer due to the reduced liquidity.barlorca wrote:Zenyatta, do what I do when things like this happen, stop trading. If forum members work together, and are notified, and enough of us stop trading at the same time on a repeat basis, whoever/whatever is affecting the markets will have to look elsewhere due to the drop in liquidity.
A better approach might be to find a way of adapting to the new conditions.
How would it benefit you to know who or what was responsible? And how do you hope to find out?Zenyatta wrote:Manipulated from start to finish I'm afraid. Individuals are targeted as well. I had to suspend all betting and trading using BetAngel last year until I can determine who the culprits are. Whether its Betfair, people using advanced bots or whatever, I still don't know.
BTW, 'culprits' is a loaded term, but how can you blame someone for being a profit maximizer when that is what we all aspire to do?
Jeff
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Ferru wrote "BTW, 'culprits' is a loaded term, but how can you blame someone for being a profit maximizer when that is what we all aspire to do"
I disagree with this.
We all aspire to win, but I believe it should be done on a level playing field. Not everyone will think the same as me and they will think that it should be a win at no cost mentality like the bankers that sold mortgages or whatever it was to clients knowing they would lose so they could win. By a level playing field I don't mean everyone should use the same stakes but there should be certain things that shouldn't happen. My views are already on the forum so no need to repeat what I think happens that makes people feel like the market moves against them once they enter.
My guess, which Zanyetta would have to clarify is that he feels that either software producers or bf are seeing his bets slightly before they hit the market, which puts him at a disadvantage? I don't believe this is what is happening but based on his comments, I can only take my best guess at what he has suggested a few times.
Maybe market makers can identify people by stakes used and decide whether to move against them or move away from them depending on timing from the off and whether they think they can sell it on before the off or in play.
Actually, the manipulation that I feel goes on can be your friend. It use to get on my nerves, but Its quite predictable I feel, so that in itself can create lots of opportunities.
I disagree with this.
We all aspire to win, but I believe it should be done on a level playing field. Not everyone will think the same as me and they will think that it should be a win at no cost mentality like the bankers that sold mortgages or whatever it was to clients knowing they would lose so they could win. By a level playing field I don't mean everyone should use the same stakes but there should be certain things that shouldn't happen. My views are already on the forum so no need to repeat what I think happens that makes people feel like the market moves against them once they enter.
My guess, which Zanyetta would have to clarify is that he feels that either software producers or bf are seeing his bets slightly before they hit the market, which puts him at a disadvantage? I don't believe this is what is happening but based on his comments, I can only take my best guess at what he has suggested a few times.
Maybe market makers can identify people by stakes used and decide whether to move against them or move away from them depending on timing from the off and whether they think they can sell it on before the off or in play.
Actually, the manipulation that I feel goes on can be your friend. It use to get on my nerves, but Its quite predictable I feel, so that in itself can create lots of opportunities.
First off I think this needs a separate thread?
If you can spot activity in the market then you can exploit it. So that's the flaw with attempting to manipulate a market.
If you spot something strange then try not to fall into the trap of believing that's the reason you can't make money. The market is the market and you need it to be your slave and not your master.
If any software had knowledge of your position it would have to transmit it somewhere so you would see it. Established vendors like Bet Angel obviously don't do this and we've been around for so long that we would have been outed if we were, but you can never be too careful with unknown or new vendors. TBH I make far more from using the software than being part of the team and benefiting from sales, so I'd like to think that's of value to our subscribers in terms of comfort and the importance to me of getting it to work to the best I can. To put that into perspective, in one day this month I made the equivalent of half a months turnover on the software!
If you have to point any fingers it has to be at Betfair. They have never recovered fully from the cross matching introduction where they only came out after we spotted what they had done and even then they where not exactly clear about the efficiency of the algorithm. I reckon Betfair often modified some aspect of the behavior of the exchange and people pick it up by proxy.
At the end of the day, if you can spot and replicate some behavior then hand it over to us and we can investigate it.
If you can spot activity in the market then you can exploit it. So that's the flaw with attempting to manipulate a market.
If you spot something strange then try not to fall into the trap of believing that's the reason you can't make money. The market is the market and you need it to be your slave and not your master.
If any software had knowledge of your position it would have to transmit it somewhere so you would see it. Established vendors like Bet Angel obviously don't do this and we've been around for so long that we would have been outed if we were, but you can never be too careful with unknown or new vendors. TBH I make far more from using the software than being part of the team and benefiting from sales, so I'd like to think that's of value to our subscribers in terms of comfort and the importance to me of getting it to work to the best I can. To put that into perspective, in one day this month I made the equivalent of half a months turnover on the software!
If you have to point any fingers it has to be at Betfair. They have never recovered fully from the cross matching introduction where they only came out after we spotted what they had done and even then they where not exactly clear about the efficiency of the algorithm. I reckon Betfair often modified some aspect of the behavior of the exchange and people pick it up by proxy.
At the end of the day, if you can spot and replicate some behavior then hand it over to us and we can investigate it.
The flaw in many arguments here is that technicaally bf is not a true supply/demand market.
It is a betting exchange which allows manipulators to create false impressions of supply and demand thereby causing "runs" either way on the prices (herd mentality).
Money pools often show no true percentage to the odds on offer.
Before the mathematical talk (either way) can be accurate this correct premise must be recognized.
So guess we are back to dart throwing .
It is a betting exchange which allows manipulators to create false impressions of supply and demand thereby causing "runs" either way on the prices (herd mentality).
Money pools often show no true percentage to the odds on offer.
Before the mathematical talk (either way) can be accurate this correct premise must be recognized.
So guess we are back to dart throwing .
A lot of talk about manipulators, I've found myself blaming them quite a lot when in reality my own mistakes are what cause me problems when trading, nobody else. They are just another market condition, like traders, arbers, punters, bombers, the lot.
On another note, this ranged nicely. If I keep pulling out decent results perhaps it's a 'sine' of things to come and I'll have left that dreadful run behind
On another note, this ranged nicely. If I keep pulling out decent results perhaps it's a 'sine' of things to come and I'll have left that dreadful run behind
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Last edited by L.o.S on Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.