US Presidential Election 2020

[Derek27]

I still reckon Trump has got this in the bag.

Expectation that his obnoxious behaviour will be a vote-loser could easily be misplaced as it just makes anti-Trumpers hate him even more - but these people wouldn't have been voting for him anyway.

Biden is too weak for middle America.

He's 2.92 if you want to hit the exchange big time.

[jamesg46]

I still reckon Trump has got this in the bag.

Expectation that his obnoxious behaviour will be a vote-loser could easily be misplaced as it just makes anti-Trumpers hate him even more - but these people wouldn't have been voting for him anyway.

Biden is too weak for middle America IMHO.

When I first got involved in the market I thought Trump would win, I've had a few moments where I've doubted it (like the bleach incident) but recently I've grown ever more doubtful, to the point where I'm undecided, I have no idea.

Its irrelevant to me anyway, i don't care who wins. My only concern was price and Bidens price definitely has a wiff of tds in it, a sort of inconceivable tone that Trump could actually win to it. It looks value, i mean who knows what's gonna happen next, this is 2020 the year of litrally anything can happen at any time.

[jamesg46]

I still reckon Trump has got this in the bag.

Expectation that his obnoxious behaviour will be a vote-loser could easily be misplaced as it just makes anti-Trumpers hate him even more - but these people wouldn't have been voting for him anyway.

Biden is too weak for middle America.

He's 2.92 if you want to hit the exchange big time.

Trumps chance decreased 5%... the market discounting 5% into the probability for this virus the magic day is Monday, will it correct itself if he gets the all clear?

[rik]

if it was mike pence wouldnt be price 150 right now would he
it will have more to do with the bad image trump and many in the white house contracting the virus has created

[rik]

also polls on average have gone more in bidens favour

[gazuty]

In 2016 I was convinced Trump wouldn’t get the Republican nomination and then I was convinced Hilary would win in the style of a coronation more than an election. I listened to the experts on Brexit and on the Australian election.

There are some very good observations and then there is lots of fanatical cheering from and within the media (and in western democracy a good chunk of the media is further to the left than the populace as evidenced by most election results, particularly those above). (To be clear there is also fanatical cheering on the media right but there are fewer of those media outlets in the mass market - I’m leaving aside far right and far left). The noise makes it’s so hard to find the signal.

[Naffman]

also polls on average have gone more in bidens favour

The data also shows how unexcited the 'voters' of Biden are, turnout is 60% in the US so that's a lot of people who said they would vote for him that can't be arsed come election day

[Naffman]

In 2016 I was convinced Trump wouldn’t get the Republican nomination and then I was convinced Hilary would win in the style of a coronation more than an election. I listened to the experts on Brexit and on the Australian election.

There are some very good observations and then there is lots of fanatical cheering from and within the media (and in western democracy a good chunk of the media is further to the left than the populace as evidenced by most election results, particularly those above). (To be clear there is also fanatical cheering on the media right but there are fewer of those media outlets in the mass market - I’m leaving aside far right and far left). The noise makes it’s so hard to find the signal.

I check twitter from time to time and 95% of all comments will be anti-Trump so no wonder the media wants to cater for these people

[wearthefoxhat]

Mike Pence is The Fly...not sure it will end well...

fly.jpg

head.jpg

[Euler]

It's sort of ironic that the media isn't full of headlines about the debate this morning, but they are all talking about the fly.

[Naffman]

It's sort of ironic that the media isn't full of headlines about the debate this morning, but they are all talking about the fly.

And his pink-eye means he has covid

[Naffman]

I think one thing we can agree on is if all these political experts who work for the media + bookies get it wrong again their trust will be dead in the water and they'll all be out of a job and have to do something actually productive.

[gazuty]

It's sort of ironic that the media isn't full of headlines about the debate this morning, but they are all talking about the fly.

Which demonstrates the frustration of someone like me with the mass media, after relentlessly criticising D for the first debate, the mass media has plenty of policy positions and non-answers from both sides to digest - but no its the banality of the fly.

I check twitter from time to time and 95% of all comments will be anti-Trump so no wonder the media wants to cater for these people

I disconnected from twitter a few years back. It's a cesspool.

[jamesg46]

I think one thing we can agree on is if all these political experts who work for the media + bookies get it wrong again their trust will be dead in the water and they'll all be out of a job and have to do something actually productive.

I've never listened to any of them, everyone has their bias, but my days they seem to be double shot gun biased. They also know what they're doing with the polls, so i pay no attention to them whatsoever, "supression polls" its just to make people think thats its over, there is no chance of their ticket winning so whats the point in going out to vote. Didn't work in 2016 for the US elections, didn't work for Brexit, but here we are again.

Infact I've got to the point where i try and stay away from the TV as much as possible, everything has a tinge of something extra behind the scenes, even when selling products it has to have subliminal meanings to it. Ill stop here before I end up in the rant corner (probably where this belongs.)

[Trader Pat]

I wonder how many people will write 'The Fly' on the ballot come election day?

There's no Jill Stein this time around so I reckon the fly could be the protest vote