UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
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Euler wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2024 5:56 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2024 5:27 pm
You can't claim Sunak genuinely believes each individual will be paying £2000 in extra tax, which is what he is claiming, knowing that some idiots will believe him.

Blair may have knowingly lied, or it could have been a genuine belief. You can't read his mind, but you don't need to with Sunak the Liar, so there is a clear difference between the two.
My guess is that it will almost certainly be more than that on average. I'd be willing to bet on it.

I don't think Labour will be able to show restraint with a large majority and will just head off down the tax and spend route in spectacular style.

Anyhow, let's not let the thread drift off to political debate and lets keep it on a trading footing.
One of Starmer's key advisors says a large majority doesn't mean more money to spend. I think that's the line they'll be taking, at least for the foreseeable future.
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Derek27
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Jeremy Hunt not running for Tory leadership. Great shame, with a 900 majority, he could be the Tory leader that loses his seat - it would be even funnier if they won. :)
Archery1969
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Labour’s planned tax raid on non doms maybe about to back fire according to the FT.

Many already left the UK for special financial treatment in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal with others taking advice from PWC on cutting down their days resident in the UK and/or shifting monies into insurance policies which are non taxable.

The FT suggests that much of the money earmarked to use from non doms will suddenly just not exist for the new Treasury.
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Derek27
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Highest proportion of females in the cabinet ever, a few nice looking ones as well.
sniffer66
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:17 am
Highest proportion of females in the cabinet ever, a few nice looking ones as well.
I will miss Esther McVey though :)

Having said that, I think Keir is batting quite high on the missus front lol
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jamesedwards
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:08 am
Labour’s planned tax raid on non doms maybe about to back fire according to the FT.

Many already left the UK for special financial treatment in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal with others taking advice from PWC on cutting down their days resident in the UK and/or shifting monies into insurance policies which are non taxable.

The FT suggests that much of the money earmarked to use from non doms will suddenly just not exist for the new Treasury.
You need to attract the super-rich into your economy, not repel them. :roll:

The top 1% contribute 29% of total tax receipts.
z13.PNG
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Derek27
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jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:22 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:08 am
Labour’s planned tax raid on non doms maybe about to back fire according to the FT.

Many already left the UK for special financial treatment in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal with others taking advice from PWC on cutting down their days resident in the UK and/or shifting monies into insurance policies which are non taxable.

The FT suggests that much of the money earmarked to use from non doms will suddenly just not exist for the new Treasury.
You need to attract the super-rich into your economy, not repel them. :roll:

The top 1% contribute 29% of total tax receipts.
z13.PNG
Don't know much about economics, as you've probably gathered, but don't many of the super-rich run chains of shops/businesses that would benefit from a stronger economy, long term?

Pub chains/restaurants, more money in people's pockets would mean more punters through the doors.
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jamesedwards
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:34 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:22 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:08 am
Labour’s planned tax raid on non doms maybe about to back fire according to the FT.

Many already left the UK for special financial treatment in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal with others taking advice from PWC on cutting down their days resident in the UK and/or shifting monies into insurance policies which are non taxable.

The FT suggests that much of the money earmarked to use from non doms will suddenly just not exist for the new Treasury.
You need to attract the super-rich into your economy, not repel them. :roll:

The top 1% contribute 29% of total tax receipts.
z13.PNG
Don't know much about economics, as you've probably gathered, but don't many of the super-rich run chains of shops/businesses that would benefit from a stronger economy, long term?
Even more reason to keep them happy, if so.
Emmson
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Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:15 am
Had another chemo session this afternoon, (had to watch the Spain match with the sound muted because the guy opposite me was watching Wimbledon and didn't want to know the score!) and I congratulated a nurse when I overheard she's getting promoted. She told me she's being put in charge of the ward, will have more responsibility, possibly more hours but doesn't get paid a penny more!!

Shocking to say the least. I realise Starmer won't have the money to drastically change things quickly but at least his heart's in the right place. Hopefully the better pay/conditions/management will materialise eventually.

And if Labour manages to fix just 40 potholes in the first week, they'll have honoured their manifesto better than the Tories did in five years. :mrgreen:
Best wishes with your treatment Derek
sionascaig
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Screenshot 2024-07-06 113748.png
(from an IFS report)

So, this is basically what labour inherited from tories if stick to current fiscal rules.. (one of the biggest tax rises in living memory).

Really can't see anyone winning out of this (unless some spectacular unexpected growth comes out of nowhere)...
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Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:34 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:22 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:08 am
Labour’s planned tax raid on non doms maybe about to back fire according to the FT.

Many already left the UK for special financial treatment in Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal with others taking advice from PWC on cutting down their days resident in the UK and/or shifting monies into insurance policies which are non taxable.

The FT suggests that much of the money earmarked to use from non doms will suddenly just not exist for the new Treasury.
You need to attract the super-rich into your economy, not repel them. :roll:

The top 1% contribute 29% of total tax receipts.
z13.PNG
Don't know much about economics, as you've probably gathered, but don't many of the super-rich run chains of shops/businesses that would benefit from a stronger economy, long term?

Pub chains/restaurants, more money in people's pockets would mean more punters through the doors.
In 2023 there were 68,400 registered non doms in the UK who contributed £8.5 billion to the exchequer. Since then a vast number have left, planning to, cutting down their residency days or moving monies into insurance policies. Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Malta have enhanced their Golden Visa schemes to entice investment, offering reduced tax rates and allowing 3/4 of a year residence days for those with funds above €100 million. Analysts suggest the £8.5 Billion will drop to below £1 Billion after the changes made by the conservatives and increased adjustments planned by Labour.
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Derek27
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:02 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:34 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:22 am


You need to attract the super-rich into your economy, not repel them. :roll:

The top 1% contribute 29% of total tax receipts.
z13.PNG
Don't know much about economics, as you've probably gathered, but don't many of the super-rich run chains of shops/businesses that would benefit from a stronger economy, long term?

Pub chains/restaurants, more money in people's pockets would mean more punters through the doors.
In 2023 there were 68,400 registered non doms in the UK who contributed £8.5 billion to the exchequer. Since then a vast number have left, planning to, cutting down their residency days or moving monies into insurance policies. Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Malta have enhanced their Golden Visa schemes to entice investment, offering reduced tax rates and allowing 3/4 of a year residence days for those with funds above €100 million. Analysts suggest the £8.5 Billion will drop to below £1 Billion after the changes made by the conservatives and increased adjustments planned by Labour.
Have a tax on leaving the UK, 20% of your wealth. :)
Archery1969
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Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:04 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:02 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:34 am


Don't know much about economics, as you've probably gathered, but don't many of the super-rich run chains of shops/businesses that would benefit from a stronger economy, long term?

Pub chains/restaurants, more money in people's pockets would mean more punters through the doors.
In 2023 there were 68,400 registered non doms in the UK who contributed £8.5 billion to the exchequer. Since then a vast number have left, planning to, cutting down their residency days or moving monies into insurance policies. Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Malta have enhanced their Golden Visa schemes to entice investment, offering reduced tax rates and allowing 3/4 of a year residence days for those with funds above €100 million. Analysts suggest the £8.5 Billion will drop to below £1 Billion after the changes made by the conservatives and increased adjustments planned by Labour.
Have a tax on leaving the UK, 20% of your wealth. :)
That wouldn't be legal Derek and subject to court cases. Plus its too late now. :D
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Derek27
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For Rishi Sunak it started in the rain and never got any better.

They're never gonna let him forget it. :lol: :lol:
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Derek27
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There was a nice summary on Sky of the last 14 years:-

There is no magic money tree, public humiliation and catastrophic miscalculation, nothing has changed, nothing has changed, 40 new hospitals, Get Brexit done, oven ready deal, you must stay at home, Barnard Castle eyesight test, bring your own booze, karaoke, suitcases of alcohol and wall-to-wall vomiting at a work meeting, when the herd moves, I'm not going to cut the additional rate of tax Mr Speaker, I'm going to abolish it altogether, a lettuce outlasts the fourth Conservative prime minister in six years, Britain became a laughingstock, integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level, you can eat for just 30 pence, don't buy cheese if you can't afford it, record tax, record channel crossings, zero flights to Rwanda, D-Day, betting on the general election when the result is known, ending with shots of Sunak in a £3K suit, looking as though he fell into his new swimming pool. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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