How do you make over 1k in 1 race?

[Iron]

The amounts were totally out of line with the rest of the market - why would all of a sudden a horse that has been drifting with 4 figure amounts all of a sudden attract 5 figure amounts to back all at one and at several prices?

Do you watch these horse racing markets Ferru123?

Do you not find, though, that suddenly money piles up because the market simply decides it wants to change direction or break out of a range?

Yes, I do watch horse racing markets. I also trade them - not very well, I should add, but I'm working on it!

Jeff

[andyfuller]

Do you not find, though, that suddenly money piles up because the market simply decides it wants to change direction or break out of a range?

Yes this happens but the kind of manipulation that was seen in the first race happens time and time and again day in day out with the same MO - watch enough races and you will see certain behaviour repeated and from that you will be able to begin to tell the difference between the type you mention and the manipulation.

I would suggest you record the markets and watch them back and then you can pick such things up much easier when you aren't actively trading.

[Iron]

Thanks Andy - That's good advice.

Jeff

Yes this happens but the kind of manipulation that was seen in the first race happens time and time and again day in day out with the same MO - watch enough races and you will see certain behaviour repeated and from that you will be able to begin to tell the difference between the type you mention and the manipulation.

I would suggest you record the markets and watch them back and then you can pick such things up much easier when you aren't actively trading.

[andyfuller]

Can't remember where I read it but the whole game is percentage calls. What I sometimes think is manipulation turns out not to be but as long as I get it right more than I don't I will be in front - nothing is set in stone so that is why you need to take in as many indicators as you can and form an opinion and when the 'odds' are in your favour strike.

Therefore I always think the more examples you can see and take in the better, hence recording the markets as they will seem very different watching them back when you are not actually watching them with money at stake and you will see things you didn't before which help explain why x y and z happened. And the beauty is you can watch the same thing 20 times to see it but live you just get the one shot and have to decide there and then whether or not to pull the trigger.

[James1st]

Sometimes predicting the type of markets (swing/scalp) goes wrong Euler, as today was tilted towards scalping.

Compared to yesterday, todays log of 17 races showed 14 that had swings of 7 or more but unlike yesterday, the average per race was down from 20 to 14. We had one race with a 30 tick swing.

Notably, the log showed that where we had 9 "reversal swings" yesterday,today there were zero, zilch, none! Too bad if you were hoping for a swing reversal to make a few quid.

20 upticks
8
15
14
7
14
30
13
10
9
19
15
15
7

[Euler]

as today was tilted towards scalping.

Almost the completely opposite interpretation to me as I hardly scalped a market today, maybe two races.

[andyfuller]

Almost the completely opposite interpretation to me as I hardly scalped a market today, maybe two races.

Shows quite well I think that everyday throws up many different opportunities it is how they are interpreted. James interpreted them as good scalping where as Peter interpreted them as swings. Both approaches clearly can work, it comes down to the execution I feel that makes the difference.

If we all thought the same there wouldn't be anything to trade

Edit: Spelling - never my strong point

[Iron]

I think you mean 'interpreted' rather then 'interrupted'!

Jeff

Shows quite well I think that everyday throws up many different opportunities it is how they are interrupted. James interrupted them as good scalping where as Peter interrupted them as swings.

[Iron]

Between 2.0 and 3.0, if you're opening your trade with a back, you need about 13 points' profit to increase your stake by 10%.

If you increase your bank by 10% a day, it will double roughly every 8 days. A £100 bank would be worth £1745 in 30 days' time.

I'm not saying that achieving this is as easy as falling off a log, but it's food for thought!

Jeff

Notably, the log showed that where we had 9 "reversal swings" yesterday,today there were zero, zilch, none! Too bad if you were hoping for a swing reversal to make a few quid.

20 upticks
8
15
14
7
14
30
13
10
9
19
15
15
7

[followthatcamel]

Hi James, sorry if I've missed this in your posts, but would you be willing to share the criteria/methodology for capturing the data in recording your log?

Regards
Doug

[James1st]

Hi Doug. No great secret. I have my own charting (built in Excel), so I have all the data available from switch time (usually 8-10 minutes pre race).

[andyfuller]

If something is at 2.00 and it contracts to 1.70, my view is that it is harder and harder for it to shorten. It's not going to go off at 1.01

I was begining to wonder with this one, looking for the reversal here would have probably proved expensive:

(The image was taken a little into the race - it had flattened out at 1.28 to 1.30 though just before the off)

[Iron]

Is it just me, or do trends generally come to an end or even reverse in the minute before the race starts, presumably due to people closing their trades?

Jeff

(The image was taken a little into the race - it had flattened out at 1.28 to 1.30 though just before the off)

[Euler]

I don't think there is much point opposing something that is one directional, you need uncertainty in a market to benefit. If you stand in front of a steamroller you will probably get flattened!

[followthatcamel]

Hi James, thanks for your response. I will look to capture price data using the BA Chart spreadsheet and build charts off of it for further analysis. One last question if I may and that is do you look at all runners within a race to build your log are just a select few?

Regards
Doug