. Not saying it carn't be done, just that i carn't
now i tend to jump on treads with small stakes first and then add to them if it goes my way.
How do you make over 1k in 1 race?
When you're going counter-trend, you have a much lower strike rate than going with the trend.
So when you lose money, it's hard to know whether you were unlucky, or if you method needs tweaking. It's therefore hard to get confident with it IMHO. But I bet it's a goldmine if you can get it right, as you'd be entering a new trend at the best possible place!
Jeff
So when you lose money, it's hard to know whether you were unlucky, or if you method needs tweaking. It's therefore hard to get confident with it IMHO. But I bet it's a goldmine if you can get it right, as you'd be entering a new trend at the best possible place!
Jeff
freddy wrote:I almost went bankrupt when i first started trying to catch reversals
Not saying it carn't be done, just that i carn't
now i tend to jump on treads with small stakes first and then add to them if it goes my way.
I certainly got my arse kicked on that one andy! I do a lot of counter trending and that chart is unusual, such a persistant trend at such a low price,(particularly after it broke 1.50) - low priced horses usually attract more scalpers, but not here, just not enough of us layers this time. Backers were not looking to get out for the usual tick or 2, it just kept going down.
Hi
Counter trend : Surely there has to be less risk if you are trading near the resistance lines? (Its just my personal style, but I never lay when the current price is near the highest traded price and visa versa), I know for a fact that I do miss out on trades, but I just dont think it is worth the risk
(Caveat: I'm referring to Horse Racing above. It may not necessarily be the case if you were trading say the football market, where it is perhaps easier to determine the direction)..
regards
Peter
Counter trend : Surely there has to be less risk if you are trading near the resistance lines? (Its just my personal style, but I never lay when the current price is near the highest traded price and visa versa), I know for a fact that I do miss out on trades, but I just dont think it is worth the risk
(Caveat: I'm referring to Horse Racing above. It may not necessarily be the case if you were trading say the football market, where it is perhaps easier to determine the direction)..
regards
Peter
My view on trends is as follows: -
A horse can't go off at 1.01 if it was 2.50 ten minutes out, that's impossible, it's also unlikley to go off at 100's. Therefore if a price is moving, it has to have a natural boundry where it can't move much further or where the structure of the market won't allow it. If a large move is underway then I suspect it will find it harder to maintain that move the further the move extends. Sometimes there are other factors that don't stop that move, like a sustained gamble, but typically most trends exhaust themselves. If you assume there are a bunch of traders on that trend then they typically close out a position when the trend ends so if you are on the other side of that you can move into a profit fairly quickly and hold on to see if the trend reverses. You have to be fairly speculative to do this though.
I dislike jumping on a trend because it can often be an optical illusion. You see a trend so you follow it only for the trend to then break. You have to have some rationale to jump on it, just seeing is has been moving that way for a little while isn't a strong enough reason IMHO.
A horse can't go off at 1.01 if it was 2.50 ten minutes out, that's impossible, it's also unlikley to go off at 100's. Therefore if a price is moving, it has to have a natural boundry where it can't move much further or where the structure of the market won't allow it. If a large move is underway then I suspect it will find it harder to maintain that move the further the move extends. Sometimes there are other factors that don't stop that move, like a sustained gamble, but typically most trends exhaust themselves. If you assume there are a bunch of traders on that trend then they typically close out a position when the trend ends so if you are on the other side of that you can move into a profit fairly quickly and hold on to see if the trend reverses. You have to be fairly speculative to do this though.
I dislike jumping on a trend because it can often be an optical illusion. You see a trend so you follow it only for the trend to then break. You have to have some rationale to jump on it, just seeing is has been moving that way for a little while isn't a strong enough reason IMHO.
Hi Peter
Do you wait for the market to settle down following a trend before going counter-trend, to minimize the chances of it suddenly jumping several ticks in the direction of the trend?
Jeff
Do you wait for the market to settle down following a trend before going counter-trend, to minimize the chances of it suddenly jumping several ticks in the direction of the trend?
Jeff
Euler wrote:If you assume there are a bunch of traders on that trend then they typically close out a position when the trend ends so if you are on the other side of that you can move into a profit fairly quickly and hold on to see if the trend reverses. You have to be fairly speculative to do this though.
Andy, In that race, because once it broke 1.4 we knew beforehand that it would touch exactly 1.28, a trading strategy of following the trend until its resistance/reversal level (as Peter suggests) worked out perfectly. Layers tried to break the trend at 1.47 but only managed 2 clicks above the median before giving up.
In the final minute (pre race time), Ferru, normal price triggers are ignored and the odds certainly can and do deviate from the expected landing site. My previous posts highlighted this and advised avoiding this time for serious trading. Counter trading a trend requires a very important input and that is the ability to “recognise” a trend in the first place. Trend breakers are then quite easy to spot if you know what to look out for.
Followthatcamel. My own charting can switch between runners but I mainly concentrate on the fav as it takes some time to build up a sizeable overview. I will eventually modify my charts to concurrently chart/collect data on the front 3, but for now I am sticking with the fav.
In the final minute (pre race time), Ferru, normal price triggers are ignored and the odds certainly can and do deviate from the expected landing site. My previous posts highlighted this and advised avoiding this time for serious trading. Counter trading a trend requires a very important input and that is the ability to “recognise” a trend in the first place. Trend breakers are then quite easy to spot if you know what to look out for.
Followthatcamel. My own charting can switch between runners but I mainly concentrate on the fav as it takes some time to build up a sizeable overview. I will eventually modify my charts to concurrently chart/collect data on the front 3, but for now I am sticking with the fav.
The market usually gives you a clear signal that it has changed it's mind. Doesn't always work but I usually have a stop just below it in case.Ferru123 wrote:Do you wait for the market to settle down following a trend before going counter-trend, to minimize the chances of it suddenly jumping several ticks in the direction of the trend?
Where I can get very high strike rates on scalping, swing trading is usually the inverse. Low strike rates but very high values when you get it right.
When counter-trend swing trading goes against you, how many points would you typically lose?
What would put me off trying this technique is that I might haemorrhage points until I get to grips with it.
Jeff
What would put me off trying this technique is that I might haemorrhage points until I get to grips with it.
Jeff
Euler wrote: Where I can get very high strike rates on scalping, swing trading is usually the inverse. Low strike rates but very high values when you get it right.
Jeff,
I know you are familiar with the Black Dog method of trading Forex, have you tried applying some of those techniques to Betfair...ie only laying when the price is approaching the lower resistance limit and backing when it is towards the upper limit//..?
All you have to do is be just better than chance in the long term?
Regards
Peter
I know you are familiar with the Black Dog method of trading Forex, have you tried applying some of those techniques to Betfair...ie only laying when the price is approaching the lower resistance limit and backing when it is towards the upper limit//..?
All you have to do is be just better than chance in the long term?
Regards
Peter
Hi Peter
Yes, I have - with promising but mixed results.
For people unfamiliar with Black Dog, it's a Forex trend following system which goes with the long-term trend and enters the market following a pullback. Essentially, it buys when the market is coming out of dips.
The main challenge IMHO with applying its principles to Betfair is that you don't have more or less guaranteed stoplosses on Betfair. So one minute, you might be riding a nice trend, and seconds later the market has jumped several ticks against you. To address this problem, I'm going to pay closer attention to weight of money, so I can hopefully exit before massive spikes occur.
Another big difference between Betfair and the financial markets is that, with Betfair, you can effectively eliminate the spread by offering a price. So whilst the spreads might eliminate your profit if you were to trade the minor pullbacks in the financial markets, doing so may be profitable on Betfair. This is something I plan to look into.
To clarify what you're suggesting, are you saying that if the market hits support, it would be a good idea to put in a back bet, as it's likely to turn around? That's not something I've tried much, although I do plan to have a go at it.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Jeff
Yes, I have - with promising but mixed results.
For people unfamiliar with Black Dog, it's a Forex trend following system which goes with the long-term trend and enters the market following a pullback. Essentially, it buys when the market is coming out of dips.
The main challenge IMHO with applying its principles to Betfair is that you don't have more or less guaranteed stoplosses on Betfair. So one minute, you might be riding a nice trend, and seconds later the market has jumped several ticks against you. To address this problem, I'm going to pay closer attention to weight of money, so I can hopefully exit before massive spikes occur.
Another big difference between Betfair and the financial markets is that, with Betfair, you can effectively eliminate the spread by offering a price. So whilst the spreads might eliminate your profit if you were to trade the minor pullbacks in the financial markets, doing so may be profitable on Betfair. This is something I plan to look into.
To clarify what you're suggesting, are you saying that if the market hits support, it would be a good idea to put in a back bet, as it's likely to turn around? That's not something I've tried much, although I do plan to have a go at it.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Jeff
PeterLe wrote:Jeff,
I know you are familiar with the Black Dog method of trading Forex, have you tried applying some of those techniques to Betfair...ie only laying when the price is approaching the lower resistance limit and backing when it is towards the upper limit//..?
All you have to do is be just better than chance in the long term?
Regards
Peter
-
giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
I tryed many strategys over horses as well. If I got 10 successfull trades for £50 each on football matches and 2 losses I will probably be on £400 profit but, on horses you need one single spike to wipe, all 10 successfull trades + some of your bank out. I had a go yesterday, one single spike made me £455 in one race.It was nice but too uncertain for my style.I hope i will lern to avoid those spikes so I can trade on horses as well.Ferru123 wrote:Hi Peter
Yes, I have - with promising but mixed results.
For people unfamiliar with Black Dog, it's a Forex trend following system which goes with the long-term trend and enters the market following a pullback. Essentially, it buys when the market is coming out of dips.
The main challenge IMHO with applying its principles to Betfair is that you don't have more or less guaranteed stoplosses on Betfair. So one minute, you might be riding a nice trend, and seconds later the market has jumped several ticks against you. To address this problem, I'm going to pay closer attention to weight of money, so I can hopefully exit before massive spikes occur.
Another big difference between Betfair and the financial markets is that, with Betfair, you can effectively eliminate the spread by offering a price. So whilst the spreads might eliminate your profit if you were to trade the minor pullbacks in the financial markets, doing so may be profitable on Betfair. This is something I plan to look into.
To clarify what you're suggesting, are you saying that if the market hits support, it would be a good idea to put in a back bet, as it's likely to turn around? That's not something I've tried much, although I do plan to have a go at it.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Jeff
PeterLe wrote:Jeff,
I know you are familiar with the Black Dog method of trading Forex, have you tried applying some of those techniques to Betfair...ie only laying when the price is approaching the lower resistance limit and backing when it is towards the upper limit//..?
All you have to do is be just better than chance in the long term?
Regards
Peter
