Betfair have scrapped the Premium Charge

[Euler]

I am looking to get into trading on the exchange with betfair and bet angel but not quite there yet. I have been doing some backtesting on my strategies. I have a simple horse racing strategy just trading win and place on specific races determined by my model. I expect to trade between 1k-5k per trade if liquidity is there and at the end of the year i could accumulate a positive balance between 200k-400k. I thought that via the exchange this would be possible but I was not aware of this premium charge you mentioned in the links. The lifetime limits and the premium charge of 60% on winnings over the 250k threshold. Even if they go to a rolling schedule that will impact my ability to trade. Do I understand this correct that you can't win over 250k every year. Thanks for any feedback to this newbie.

The Premium charge is no more; you need to read up on the Expert fee.

The rate you pay will depend on how much you make a year as well as other factors.

[jamesedwards]

  > From Betfair's FAQ post: The Buffer is the greater of:
     (Commission Generated Since Last Expert Fee Paid / Current Expert Fee Rate) - Gross P&L Since Last Expert Fee Paid
     (Commission Generated Since Last Rate Change / Current Expert Fee Rate) - Gross P&L Since Last Rate Charge

I'm been looking into this "new" "buffer" they are introducing. It looks to me that the net result of losses carried forward into the following week is exactly the same as it was with the previous PC structure.

eg for a consistent 40% band payer:

Old PC calc:
wk1 +£4000 sum of wins & -£3000 sum of losses = +£1000 gross P&L and £85 commission generated, resulting in £315 Premium Charge.
wk2 +£4000 sum of wins & -£4200 sum of losses = -£200 gross P&L and £103 commission generated, resulting in £0 Premium Charge, and carrying -£183 of PC forward to next week.
wk3 +£4000 sum of wins & -£3000 sum of losses = +£1000 gross P&L and £85 commission generated, resulting in £132 Premium Charge (£315 - £183 carried forward from previous week) .
So the sum for the three weeks: +£1800 gross P&L with £273 commission generated and total Premium Charge paid of £447.

New EF calc:
wk1 +£4000 sum of wins & -£3000 sum of losses = +£1000 gross P&L and £77.50 commission generated, resulting in £322.50 Expert Fee.
wk2 +£4000 sum of wins & -£4200 sum of losses = -£200 gross P&L and £92.50 commission generated, resulting in £0 Expert Fee, plus generating a gross P&L buffer of £431.25.
wk3 +£4000 sum of wins & -£3000 sum of losses = +£1000 gross P&L and £77.50 commission generated, resulting in £150 Expert Fee (£322.50 - £172.50 from the P&L buffer).
So the sum for the three weeks: +£1800 gross P&L with £247.50 commission generated and total Expert Fee paid of £472.50.

The only difference between the two being a lower commission generated and resulting higher charge paid (due to reduction in implied commission from 3% to 2.5%).

Can anyone confirm that they have reached the same conclusion?

[jamesedwards]

Based on my understanding of the new structure, winners and losers under the new Expert Fee vs the old Premium Charge are as follows:


Better off (most to least)

• An existing PC payer who makes consistently less than £25k gross per year is much better off because they will no longer pay any charge.

• Those will a lifetime bank of winnings who have lost in the last 52 weeks but return to profit will be much better off because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into account.

• An existing 50% or 60% PC payer is much better off due to the scrapping of the higher rates.

• An existing 40% PC payer who makes consistently less than £100k gross per year is much better off because they will now only ever pay 20%.

• An existing 40% PC payer who flirts around £100k gross per year is somewhat better off because they will sometimes pay 20% and sometimes pay 40%.

• An existing 20% PC payer who flirts around £25k gross per year is somewhat better off because they will sometimes pay 20% and sometimes pay nothing.

Worse off (most to least)

• Those with a lifetime bank of losses who are now consistently profitable above £25k gross will be much worse off (if they reach a lifetime gross profit position) because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into account.

• An existing 20% PC payer who makes consistently more than £100k gross per year (these will be very rare) is much worse off because they will now only ever pay 40%.

• An existing 40% PC payer who consistently makes more than £100k gross per year is a little worse off due to the reduction in implied commission rate from 3% to 2.5%.

• An existing 20% PC payer who makes consistently between £25k and £100k gross per year is is a little worse off due to the reduction in implied commission rate from 3% to 2.5%.

Edited to group into those better and those worse off

[Euler]

This is wrong: -

• Those with a lifetime bank of losses who are now consistently profitable will be much worse off (if they reach a lifetime net profit position) because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into
  
  Any errors or omissions in this summary please let me know.

Lifetime losses are taken into account. So you need to expunge those before you will be considered for EF. One key condition of the EF is that lifetime P&L>£0

[Kai]

Would Betfair even care about linking accounts anymore?

When it comes to situations like country closures or even PC avoiders. Since it revolves around a rolling 52-week period.

Was wondering because I'm hearing Betfair are instructing users (including old PC payers) to open new accounts after country closures.

Excellent summary James btw

[jamesedwards]

Would Betfair even care about linking accounts anymore?

When it comes to situations like country closures or even PC avoiders. Since it revolves around a rolling 52-week period.

Was wondering because I'm hearing Betfair are instructing users (including old PC payers) to open new accounts after country closures.

Excellent summary James btw

One would assume so, because otherwise anyone profitable in the last 52 weeks could just set up a new account and effectively reset their rolling 52 week P&L to £0.

[jamesedwards]

This is wrong: -

• Those with a lifetime bank of losses who are now consistently profitable will be much worse off (if they reach a lifetime net profit position) because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into
  
  Any errors or omissions in this summary please let me know.

Lifetime losses are taken into account. So you need to expunge those before you will be considered for EF. One key condition of the EF is that lifetime P&L>£0

Corrected this from net to gross.

This exposes a cheeky little niggle here;

Previously an account used to have to be "in profit" (presumably net profit?), before being considered for PC.
9.4.2 You’ll only be considered for the Premium Charge if your account is in profit and only if the total charges generated since joining Betfair are less than 20%† of your gross profits.

The new structure specifies the gross P&L must be above £0.
An account may only be considered for the Expert Fee if Lifetime Gross P&L > £0

These could be very different thresholds, and an account coming from a loss position to one of profit making >£25k gross per year will qualify for charges earlier than before.

[Euler]

Probably worth grouping that list into people who are better off and those worse off.

[jamesedwards]

Probably worth grouping that list into people who are better off and those worse off.

Good idea. Done.

[Euler]

I haven't done the maths, but I'm pretty sure you can exclude people who are in a gross lifetime profit but make enough to create a potential charge under the EF. The amount of commission they would have paid would offset any charge.

I think that's the tricky bit with saying who will or won't gain, some of it will come down to your strategy and strike rate. If your edge is small the commission offsets any charges.

[eightbo]

I haven't done the maths, but I'm pretty sure you can exclude people who are in a gross lifetime profit but make enough to create a potential charge under the EF. The amount of commission they would have paid would offset any charge.

so lifetime comms paid is being factored in somewhere? Reading bf's Expert Fee FAQ, it sounds like only comms for the active week will be looked at.

My account was in a net loss for ages, did a bunch of volume for a long time before turning lifetime profitable, so my comms % vs. lifetime profit is on the high side, and I believe I was not paying PC because of this clause:
Your account is in profit;
Your total charges generated are less than 20%† of gross profits; and
You bet in more than 250 markets.

so my account's in lifetime profitability, with >£25k last 52weeks, but >20% commission vs. lifetime profits, however under Expert Fee seems like I'll now be charged, unless I'm missing something.

[eightbo]

Based on my understanding of the new structure, winners and losers under the new Expert Fee vs the old Premium Charge are as follows:
...
Worse off:

• Those with a lifetime bank of losses who are now consistently profitable above £25k gross will be much worse off (if they reach a lifetime gross profit position) because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into account.

...

I think this is my situation.  Happy to hear the change is positive for most players but pretty much getting charged 20% overnight here.  My profits are tiny compared to what I could expand them to next year if I put some effort in so I'm not exactly concerned but does feel like a bit of a sucker punch.  Viewed in a positive light this new fee may be the flank fire I needed to motivate me to work on new bots in the new year.

[Euler]

Is your lifetime P&L according to the PC portal at a loss?

[lmigueltavares]

For € accounts, do you know the limits of the ranges of the new Expert Fee?

[eightbo]

Is your lifetime P&L according to the PC portal at a loss?

tysm for replying. If it's this link: https://myaccount.betfair.com/activity/premium-charges
Then i do not have access to the portal (page says 'not found')

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