Trading What I see !?

[Trader Pat]

I actually think I need to work out how to make my wins larger, as I don't think I can make my losses much smaller. So say 4 tick loss and 15 tick win.
Just don't see many 15 tick moves, given I'm not going to catch a complete move, the actual move would need to be 20+ ticks...?!

You'll find life a lot easier if you try and make your losses smaller rather than trying to get bigger wins to cover your losses, especially if you think you'll be picking 15 tick wins on a regular basis after a few months trading.

im about at the same stage in my journey as Goat, maybe slightly behind, the thing is i manage a good strike rate most days of over 70%-75%

But i never make a profit, its a loss for me everyday, im the complete opposite of what i should be, lots of small wins, and 3 or 4 big losses a day, very frustrating

If you have the discipline for it you could try setting yourself a loss limit per race. It helped me early on when I had a decent strike rate but was still finishing the day at scratch or a loss because of a few bad trades.

Work out your strike rate, average profit and average loss per race. You seem to have your strike rate sussed so just work out over what period of time you think you have the 70-75% SR. Then work out your average profit and loss over the same time period.

Then set your loss limit to whatever your average profit is. For example if you work out your average profit is £3 then set your self a loss limit of £3 per race and stick to it religiously.

There are different ways you can do this, you can adjust the ratio depending on strike rate but this one worked for me and actually took some pressure off. It should also show you how you're framing risk v reward.

[goat68]

Well had an insanely good Wolv evening, won every race with decent trades, ended day only -£9 down. Still not happy with today's trade execution, needs some thought.

[goat68]

Too many people get hung up on strike rates to the detriment of their profit and loss. It's likely you're closing winning trades too early but hanging onto losing trades in the hope they'll turn around. Try to keep an eye on how far those winning trades go and see if you can hang onto them for longer.

With trading you've usually got some reason as to why you think a market is going to move in one direction and when you're right, you're right so should hang in to maximize profits but when you're wrong you're wrong so should get out, can't win them all.

If we enter a market randomly we're close to a 50/50 chance so it doesn't take too much to get those odds in our favour.

Letting trades run seems very difficult, I pitch my closing bets at my speculative targets and usually move them in closer to post. I pick them based on equal move distance between S/R, and typically just in front of next key price...
But you're right I sometimes see the price go a good 1.0 beyond or more, but equally sometimes it reverses completely... Tricky one for me...!

[goat68]

I actually think I need to work out how to make my wins larger, as I don't think I can make my losses much smaller. So say 4 tick loss and 15 tick win.
Just don't see many 15 tick moves, given I'm not going to catch a complete move, the actual move would need to be 20+ ticks...?!

You'll find life a lot easier if you try and make your losses smaller rather than trying to get bigger wins to cover your losses, especially if you think you'll be picking 15 tick wins on a regular basis after a few months trading.

im about at the same stage in my journey as Goat, maybe slightly behind, the thing is i manage a good strike rate most days of over 70%-75%

But i never make a profit, its a loss for me everyday, im the complete opposite of what i should be, lots of small wins, and 3 or 4 big losses a day, very frustrating

Hiya, yes that sounds all far too familiar...!

[Morbius]

Too many people get hung up on strike rates to the detriment of their profit and loss. It's likely you're closing winning trades too early but hanging onto losing trades in the hope they'll turn around. Try to keep an eye on how far those winning trades go and see if you can hang onto them for longer.

With trading you've usually got some reason as to why you think a market is going to move in one direction and when you're right, you're right so should hang in to maximize profits but when you're wrong you're wrong so should get out, can't win them all.

If we enter a market randomly we're close to a 50/50 chance so it doesn't take too much to get those odds in our favour.

The rabbit hole of strike rates goes very deep because it gets to the very heart of trading efficiency. As a broad rule of thumb, with most successful trading systems there has to be a rate of loss. However when a trader designs their own system then there is a very powerful desire to want to reduce loss hence why so many system sellers who scam focus on strike rates, they just tap into the desire of people who don't want to experience the pain of losing.

This is why it is essential that we learn from our experience, it has a very powerful value attached to it that few people in my experience properly recognise. LOSING is a powerful positive...you gain by it if you allow yourself to gain. The best book you will ever read on trading IMO is your own trading diary and notes so start compiling your OWN BOOK!! You will be amazed how much you learn from it. But back to strike rates, the more we try to avoid loss the less efficient we become as loss rates within most systems improve efficiency. The biased coin experiment using Kelly Criterion is a great example of a 40% rate of loss being the most optimal way to compound wealth over time when using correct staking within that one example.

Kai said something in a post a few weeks back on how he was working on getting more losses into his results...this sounds weird to many people but unless you are a very highly adept scalper with advantages that others don't have or a market maker then most strategies and systems will flounder if you try to create a very high strike rate. But here is the tough part.....by increasing our rate of loss, we have more losing trades which then knocks on to our ability to be able to scale up in many instances for many people because of the much greater monetary swings hence why they try to create a high strike rate but that can't be achieved without tampering with the av profit/loss ratio numbers......I think this is probably why so many traders ultimately fail, they struggle to attain this balance IMO.

[Bubace]

Too many people get hung up on strike rates to the detriment of their profit and loss. It's likely you're closing winning trades too early but hanging onto losing trades in the hope they'll turn around. Try to keep an eye on how far those winning trades go and see if you can hang onto them for longer.

With trading you've usually got some reason as to why you think a market is going to move in one direction and when you're right, you're right so should hang in to maximize profits but when you're wrong you're wrong so should get out, can't win them all.

If we enter a market randomly we're close to a 50/50 chance so it doesn't take too much to get those odds in our favour.

This is exactally what i do

when it goes in my favour i normally use 25% of my stake to secure my position so i feel more comfortable, and then try and manage the position to let it go as far as it can, but i always worry when it starts to come back to the scratch and end up dumping for small profit as im not wanting the loss, only for it to go back up and up off the screen and ive wasted what wouldve been a very good trade, this happened 3 times today

also i pick a point before hand that im stopping the loss if i goes aginst me, i do that then decide to go back in again as i think its going to come back, it doesnt and its a double loss

its clearly psychological with me

[Bubace]

You'll find life a lot easier if you try and make your losses smaller rather than trying to get bigger wins to cover your losses, especially if you think you'll be picking 15 tick wins on a regular basis after a few months trading.

im about at the same stage in my journey as Goat, maybe slightly behind, the thing is i manage a good strike rate most days of over 70%-75%

But i never make a profit, its a loss for me everyday, im the complete opposite of what i should be, lots of small wins, and 3 or 4 big losses a day, very frustrating

If you have the discipline for it you could try setting yourself a loss limit per race. It helped me early on when I had a decent strike rate but was still finishing the day at scratch or a loss because of a few bad trades.

Work out your strike rate, average profit and average loss per race. You seem to have your strike rate sussed so just work out over what period of time you think you have the 70-75% SR. Then work out your average profit and loss over the same time period.

Then set your loss limit to whatever your average profit is. For example if you work out your average profit is £3 then set your self a loss limit of £3 per race and stick to it religiously.

There are different ways you can do this, you can adjust the ratio depending on strike rate but this one worked for me and actually took some pressure off. It should also show you how you're framing risk v reward.

I like the sound of that, i do need to be more structured i think

[goat68]

they can work..


0858612B-9685-46EF-BB8F-D40E08AACB19.png

I'm guessing you're scalping with that win rate?

nope

Judging by others comments on Today's.. thread, yesterday was a bit tricky for most, you obviously had a good day!
I'm going to try and be more careful with my entries today and more aggressive with my stop loss, we will see how it goes......!

[Korattt]

I'm going to try and be more careful with my entries today

good luck, I’m not doing anything today

[goat68]

I'm going to try and be more careful with my entries today

good luck, I’m not doing anything today

Oh what the .....@#£ first trade I was adamant 3tick stop, price shot out for 8ticks

[Morbius]

I'm going to try and be more careful with my entries today

good luck, I’m not doing anything today

Oh what the .....@#£ first trade I was adamant 3tick stop, price shot out for 8ticks

How far out did that happen Goat and how liquid was the market???

[goat68]

good luck, I’m not doing anything today

Oh what the .....@#£ first trade I was adamant 3tick stop, price shot out for 8ticks

How far out did that happen Goat and how liquid was the market???

At 2mins out, I think there was about 200k traded, so was good, I just got it very wrong!!

[Morbius]

Oh what the .....@#£ first trade I was adamant 3tick stop, price shot out for 8ticks

How far out did that happen Goat and how liquid was the market???

At 2mins out, I think there was about 200k traded, so was good, I just got it very wrong!!

were you on the back or the lay side Goat and how often are you seeing these jumps happen as a rule??

[goat68]

How far out did that happen Goat and how liquid was the market???

At 2mins out, I think there was about 200k traded, so was good, I just got it very wrong!!

were you on the back or the lay side Goat and how often are you seeing these jumps happen as a rule??

Back side, about 1 in 10 markets

[Morbius]

At 2mins out, I think there was about 200k traded, so was good, I just got it very wrong!!

were you on the back or the lay side Goat and how often are you seeing these jumps happen as a rule??

Back side, about 1 in 10 markets

I don't know about you but I have noticed this happen on the lay side too only not as often but seeing as you trade more than me maybe your experiences are different but 1/10 markets seems to be my experience too