Hi,
A newbie aboard, although my angle may be different from the norm.
As an experienced “old school” race-reader of 25 years (horse racing), I am interested purely in in-running betting/trading. All my trades/bets are placed instinctively in running; I have no interest in watching graphs etc.
Over the last few weeks I made some basic manual trades on Betfair to see if I could successfully back to lay at a decent strike-rate.
For instance, I would back a horse at 3.5, and lay at 3.0, for the same stake, achieving a free bet. In every 10 trades, I got around 8 correct. Last weekend I made 15 trades/bets on a Saturday and got the market right 13 times (3.5 to 3.0), and of those 15, I got 9 right from 3.5 to 2.5 (100 ticks?) for a bigger profit, if I understand it right.
Having done some research, I understand I can “green up”, but this is where I go into the unknown; I also want to know how to “red up”. I understand what both do and the maths behind it, just the hand/eye process of what to click and press in BetAngel.
To keep things simple - and I mean simple - could someone by as kind as to fill in the gaps in terms of using BetAngel (I currently have a trial)...
1.What screen view is best for my strategy, remember I don’t do pre-race trading: one-click, ladder etc?
2.If it is the one-click screen, I set my stake (I understand how to do that) and then during a race I back a horse at say 2.8, but from this stage I need guidance – ideally, I just want to press a button in the race to either green up if I am happy with how the horse is running (market going my way), or red up for a loss if the horse is now running badly (market gone against me).
3.In other words, from the moment I make my initial bet (you guys call it an “entry bet”?), I just want to press one more button – to green up or red up, nothing more complex.
I have read up on stop losses and from what you guys say, that approach may not be reliable in running, as the requested price can be missed?
Also, is my strategy of back to lay for 50 ticks (3.5 to 3.0 for instance) one I can profit with a strike-rate of around 70-80% (assuming I get out for a loss of around 50% of my stake on 20-30% of the time) – I understand that if a horse falls in running, I lose my entire stake.
I really would be grateful for any help with this. Thanks in advance.
Race-reader needs help...
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
on the top left hand corner ,select offset bet with greening ,select how many ticks u want 50 etc ,,so when you place your back bet at 3.50 it will automatically offset with greening ,try for a couple of races in practice mode ,its pretty easy to do,
Marc
Marc
Thanks for replies,
Regarding the offsetting and greening up, what do I place in the two boxes to the right.
So, for instance, if I wanted to perform a back to lay with 0.50 profit (50 ticks?) and the horse I backed in-running was 3.5, how would it go...
offset (ticks)...?
stop trigger (ticks)...?
place at (ticks)...?
Also still not clear regarding ticks - I assumed a trade of 1.80 to 1.79 was 1 tick. So would 1.80 to 1.40 be 40 ticks?
Thanks again.
Regarding the offsetting and greening up, what do I place in the two boxes to the right.
So, for instance, if I wanted to perform a back to lay with 0.50 profit (50 ticks?) and the horse I backed in-running was 3.5, how would it go...
offset (ticks)...?
stop trigger (ticks)...?
place at (ticks)...?
Also still not clear regarding ticks - I assumed a trade of 1.80 to 1.79 was 1 tick. So would 1.80 to 1.40 be 40 ticks?
Thanks again.
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
The ticks from 1.80-1.40 are indeed 40 as the increments are 0.01 from 1.01-2.00
If it was 2.80-2.40 it would be 20 ticks as the 2.00-3.00 increments are 0.02
Further up if you were going from 6.80-6.40 it would be just 2 ticks as it's in the 0.2 increment bracket now.
If you were using a standard 40 tick offset on all bets, then the 3 prices above would be
Back 1.80.......Lay 1.40
Back 2.80.......Lay 2.00
Back 6.80.......Lay 3.20
Using 100 as an example stake, for the above 40 tick offset bets with greening you would get:
Back [email protected] Lay [email protected]. Profit after 5%comm 27.14
Back [email protected] Lay [email protected]. Profit after 5%comm 38.00
Back [email protected] Lay [email protected]. Profit after 5%comm 106.87
It's difficult to offer much advice without knowing the approx price range you like to trade at, if you have a target of 50 profit using the same 100 stakes then something backed at 1.80 has to drop to 1.18 for the 50 profit which is a 62 tick movement. Likewise something backed at 4.50 will give the same 50 profit as it drops to 2.94, which is only a 28 tick movement.
On the Stop side (which I think is not advised for in-running in general on the forum here, it triggers too easy or overshoots too fast to be matched I think) for the 50% loss getout, you're looking at the matched price to double. So for the 1.8 to match at 3.6 you're looking at a 82 tick movement, for the 4.50 to match at 9.0, it's just a 30 tick movement!
Basically as you can see there's no hard and fast rule at present, it's been suggested a few times to have the option of an offset for amount of money or %age of stake, maybe a dropdown box instead of a numeral box or something like that. It could happen in future updates to Betangel, nobody knows the future.
I did some number crunching and have a few rough figures:
Edit: I can't get the formatting right, the first figures are Price Range, second is Offset, third is Stop Trigger (all ?) fourth is place stop at.
2.0-3.0 69 ? 40
3.0-4.0 54 ? 30
4.0-5.0 39 ? 30
5.0-6.0 25 ? 24
6.0-7.0 22 ? 23
7.0-8.0 19 ? 22
8.0-9.0 18 ? 21
9.0-10.0 17 ? 20
Using those figures returns at least 50% profit if matched and 50% loss if the Stop is hit. If you're strike rate is as high as 70%+ it's do-able, but it's more than the 1 click limit required
The trigger for the stop seems to be the catchy one. You're looking for your stop to be triggered as the price drops and the bet to be placed ultra fast. While you're hoping your lay at 7.2 is gonna be matched, people at the course or with faster pictures can already see the bone poking out of the poor horses leg and the vet on his way, your 7.2 won't be matched!!
If you're confident with your strike rate, I'd forget about the stop loss, let the wins take care of themselves, they'll more than make up for the losses.
Best of luck if you decide to stick with Betangel, there's a lot of people with very helpful insightful stuff to say, and some people with lots to say but nothing insightful or helpful!
If it was 2.80-2.40 it would be 20 ticks as the 2.00-3.00 increments are 0.02
Further up if you were going from 6.80-6.40 it would be just 2 ticks as it's in the 0.2 increment bracket now.
If you were using a standard 40 tick offset on all bets, then the 3 prices above would be
Back 1.80.......Lay 1.40
Back 2.80.......Lay 2.00
Back 6.80.......Lay 3.20
Using 100 as an example stake, for the above 40 tick offset bets with greening you would get:
Back [email protected] Lay [email protected]. Profit after 5%comm 27.14
Back [email protected] Lay [email protected]. Profit after 5%comm 38.00
Back [email protected] Lay [email protected]. Profit after 5%comm 106.87
It's difficult to offer much advice without knowing the approx price range you like to trade at, if you have a target of 50 profit using the same 100 stakes then something backed at 1.80 has to drop to 1.18 for the 50 profit which is a 62 tick movement. Likewise something backed at 4.50 will give the same 50 profit as it drops to 2.94, which is only a 28 tick movement.
On the Stop side (which I think is not advised for in-running in general on the forum here, it triggers too easy or overshoots too fast to be matched I think) for the 50% loss getout, you're looking at the matched price to double. So for the 1.8 to match at 3.6 you're looking at a 82 tick movement, for the 4.50 to match at 9.0, it's just a 30 tick movement!
Basically as you can see there's no hard and fast rule at present, it's been suggested a few times to have the option of an offset for amount of money or %age of stake, maybe a dropdown box instead of a numeral box or something like that. It could happen in future updates to Betangel, nobody knows the future.
I did some number crunching and have a few rough figures:
Edit: I can't get the formatting right, the first figures are Price Range, second is Offset, third is Stop Trigger (all ?) fourth is place stop at.
2.0-3.0 69 ? 40
3.0-4.0 54 ? 30
4.0-5.0 39 ? 30
5.0-6.0 25 ? 24
6.0-7.0 22 ? 23
7.0-8.0 19 ? 22
8.0-9.0 18 ? 21
9.0-10.0 17 ? 20
Using those figures returns at least 50% profit if matched and 50% loss if the Stop is hit. If you're strike rate is as high as 70%+ it's do-able, but it's more than the 1 click limit required
The trigger for the stop seems to be the catchy one. You're looking for your stop to be triggered as the price drops and the bet to be placed ultra fast. While you're hoping your lay at 7.2 is gonna be matched, people at the course or with faster pictures can already see the bone poking out of the poor horses leg and the vet on his way, your 7.2 won't be matched!!
If you're confident with your strike rate, I'd forget about the stop loss, let the wins take care of themselves, they'll more than make up for the losses.
Best of luck if you decide to stick with Betangel, there's a lot of people with very helpful insightful stuff to say, and some people with lots to say but nothing insightful or helpful!
Thanks for the replies.
Dublin Flyer, thanks for the advice/stats. Can I ask, though, if I am looking to back to lay, and I want the lay price to always be 0.50 less than the back price, how do I enter this is the one-click screen. For instance, the following four random scenarios (all with 0.50):
Backed @ 1.90, want to lay @ 1.40
Backed @ 2.60, want to lay @ 2.10
Backed @ 3.40, want to lay @ 2.90
Backed @ 4.80, want to lay @ 4.20
How would I enter the above four trades in the boxes:
offset (ticks)...?
stop trigger (ticks)...?
place at (ticks)...?
The reason I want to lay at 0.50 below the odds I back at, is that is the price I have a high strike-rate, in other words I can back a horse in running I like say at 3.20, and then lay it at 2.70. I can do this around 70-80%.
I understand that the higher odds I back/lay at, the less profit I make.
Finally, I agree in that stop loss will be no good in-running, I will just have to learn how to exit asap
when the market goes against me.
Thanks.
Dublin Flyer, thanks for the advice/stats. Can I ask, though, if I am looking to back to lay, and I want the lay price to always be 0.50 less than the back price, how do I enter this is the one-click screen. For instance, the following four random scenarios (all with 0.50):
Backed @ 1.90, want to lay @ 1.40
Backed @ 2.60, want to lay @ 2.10
Backed @ 3.40, want to lay @ 2.90
Backed @ 4.80, want to lay @ 4.20
How would I enter the above four trades in the boxes:
offset (ticks)...?
stop trigger (ticks)...?
place at (ticks)...?
The reason I want to lay at 0.50 below the odds I back at, is that is the price I have a high strike-rate, in other words I can back a horse in running I like say at 3.20, and then lay it at 2.70. I can do this around 70-80%.
I understand that the higher odds I back/lay at, the less profit I make.
Finally, I agree in that stop loss will be no good in-running, I will just have to learn how to exit asap
when the market goes against me.
Thanks.
Just to add to my previous query...
I understand the ticks and increments, and how they work at different levels, but am struggling to understand how many ticks to offset in running, as I won’t know what price I will be backing at when making the settings pre-race.
If I want to offset my ticks at 50, so 1.90 (back) is offset at 1.40 (lay), that’s fine, but would be completely different if in-running I back at 3.50 and want to offset at 3.00 (0.50 shorter) - how do I set this pre-race?
In a nutshell, a horse that is 3.50 in running, I want to back and then lay at 3.00 (0.50 difference) - what do I put in the boxes, exactly as it appears in the one-click screen?...
offset (ticks)...?
stop trigger (ticks)...?
place at (ticks)...?
Thanks again.
I understand the ticks and increments, and how they work at different levels, but am struggling to understand how many ticks to offset in running, as I won’t know what price I will be backing at when making the settings pre-race.
If I want to offset my ticks at 50, so 1.90 (back) is offset at 1.40 (lay), that’s fine, but would be completely different if in-running I back at 3.50 and want to offset at 3.00 (0.50 shorter) - how do I set this pre-race?
In a nutshell, a horse that is 3.50 in running, I want to back and then lay at 3.00 (0.50 difference) - what do I put in the boxes, exactly as it appears in the one-click screen?...
offset (ticks)...?
stop trigger (ticks)...?
place at (ticks)...?
Thanks again.
-
Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
Apologies for getting back Casino, night shift this week, plus trying out new selection formats on Fifa taking up alot of my free time
I know exactly what you're trying to do, but after the back bet is placed then the problems come in with the offset and lay parts as they overlap the increments depending on the price.
If you're certain before the race you're looking for a back at 3.50 and a lay at 3.0 then
Top left box, Offset bet with greening from the drop down choices
From the One Click screen (make sure you have your stake set right
)
Offset 10 ticks (3.45,3.40....3.00)
If you're looking to include the stop then you need Offset bet with greening and stop from the top left box.
Same 10 tick offset
Place stop is going to be 35 ticks if you're looking to get out at 50% loss (3.55, 3.60...7.0)
Stop trigger has to be lower than your place stop, as it's a trigger, duh
Using a Stop Trigger of 24 will trigger when the runner is at 5.4 (35% loss if greened/redded up) but your lay will still be at 7.0 to get out.
Using a Stop Trigger of 15 will trigger when the runner is at 4.5 (22% loss if greened/redded up) also with your lay at 7.
Depending on the type of race or distance, either could be more suited, a mudlark over 3m could be your back bet, bulldoze the 2nd last fence and lose momentum so your 5.4 triggers and 7 is matched easily, only to do what mudlarks do and grind out a win leaving you with a loss.
Alternatively the miler on the AW could get bumped and lose stride, when your trigger places at 5.4 the people with faster video or on course could have overshot your stop so your out bet never gets matched and you're at the full stake loss for the race, so 4.5 could be a slightly safer trigger, it might just hover inside it and come back with a challenge and get your lay matched.
Much of a muchness really, it's more your personal preference, at what point do you say "Fxxx this, I'm out" or have you seen the horse prick about before only to get in gear when it matters most!
The increments from 1.99-2.02, 2.98-3.05 and any bets above 3 that might break below the 2.98 barrier are still stumbling blocks. Keep a note of your favoured bet prices and keep us updated if anything seems to work for you or pm me and we'll try figure out a happy or profitable theory for you.
I know exactly what you're trying to do, but after the back bet is placed then the problems come in with the offset and lay parts as they overlap the increments depending on the price.
If you're certain before the race you're looking for a back at 3.50 and a lay at 3.0 then
Top left box, Offset bet with greening from the drop down choices
From the One Click screen (make sure you have your stake set right
) Offset 10 ticks (3.45,3.40....3.00)
If you're looking to include the stop then you need Offset bet with greening and stop from the top left box.
Same 10 tick offset
Place stop is going to be 35 ticks if you're looking to get out at 50% loss (3.55, 3.60...7.0)
Stop trigger has to be lower than your place stop, as it's a trigger, duh
Using a Stop Trigger of 24 will trigger when the runner is at 5.4 (35% loss if greened/redded up) but your lay will still be at 7.0 to get out.
Using a Stop Trigger of 15 will trigger when the runner is at 4.5 (22% loss if greened/redded up) also with your lay at 7.
Depending on the type of race or distance, either could be more suited, a mudlark over 3m could be your back bet, bulldoze the 2nd last fence and lose momentum so your 5.4 triggers and 7 is matched easily, only to do what mudlarks do and grind out a win leaving you with a loss.
Alternatively the miler on the AW could get bumped and lose stride, when your trigger places at 5.4 the people with faster video or on course could have overshot your stop so your out bet never gets matched and you're at the full stake loss for the race, so 4.5 could be a slightly safer trigger, it might just hover inside it and come back with a challenge and get your lay matched.
Much of a muchness really, it's more your personal preference, at what point do you say "Fxxx this, I'm out" or have you seen the horse prick about before only to get in gear when it matters most!
The increments from 1.99-2.02, 2.98-3.05 and any bets above 3 that might break below the 2.98 barrier are still stumbling blocks. Keep a note of your favoured bet prices and keep us updated if anything seems to work for you or pm me and we'll try figure out a happy or profitable theory for you.
Thanks for the reply Dublin Flyer.
Since this, I now use Betfair to actually place my 0.50 lay bet. For instance, I place my back bet on BetAngel with one-click, say at 3.5, then hop over to Betfair and just simply put in 3.0, and then go back to BetAngel to green up etc. Only takes 5 secs to do, and as long as I've got the back part in there isn't a rush to get my lay part on Betfair. It can often be an advantage as the odds contract quite a lot.
One thing that annoys me, though, is once I've placed my back bet on BetAngel, I have to go to 'matched bets' to actually find out what odds I got. Is there anyway the odds appearing without having to change screens, like when an unmatched bet appears in the bottom half of the screen in one-click mode?
Since this, I now use Betfair to actually place my 0.50 lay bet. For instance, I place my back bet on BetAngel with one-click, say at 3.5, then hop over to Betfair and just simply put in 3.0, and then go back to BetAngel to green up etc. Only takes 5 secs to do, and as long as I've got the back part in there isn't a rush to get my lay part on Betfair. It can often be an advantage as the odds contract quite a lot.
One thing that annoys me, though, is once I've placed my back bet on BetAngel, I have to go to 'matched bets' to actually find out what odds I got. Is there anyway the odds appearing without having to change screens, like when an unmatched bet appears in the bottom half of the screen in one-click mode?