Implied chance

[armadillo]

I'm trying to a spreadsheet like the one on this page.

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2013/08 ... ling-data/

I've found that if I add the chance up for all the runners that it usually comes to more than 100%. This doesn't make sense to me though, surely if I use the back odds then the chance should be less than 100%?



Liverpool - 1/1.48 = 0.675675676
Newcastle - 1/8.4 = 0.119047619
The Draw - 1/4.5 = 0.222222222
Total = 1.016945517

Why isn't total 1.0?

[gazuty]

That's the overround. If it was under 1 it would be a guaranteed profit for dutching.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathemat ... bookmaking

[marksmeets302]

You're almost there, work out the math a little bit more. What happens if you divide your stake over the three different outcomes according to the implied chances. Will you make money?

Hint: in this case the crowd demands a premium of 1.69% for you backing the entire field.

You're probably confusing back and lay in your head. Whenever that happens, it's often a good choice to look at a similar situation with extremer results. In this case, consider a game with only two outcomes, A and B. Both A and B can be backed at 1.01. So the total percentage goes to almost 200%. But would you be silly enough to back A and B at those odds? I think you get it now...