Hi
Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts about something that has been a bit of an irritant in my trading.
For example, you back a selection at 5.0 thinking it is a prominent horse and will run well also - you expect a possible shortening to around 4.5 for example to trade out.
However, it all goes rather wrong, big lumps laying for 5.1, 5.3 etc etc...as the price jumps out, ending up at a panicky cutting for a loss at say 5.9 after the barge-like drift.
This happens, fair enough, but what sometimes mystifies me is when the same horse then goes off well, runs prominent and wins...trading at below your 4.5 target within a number of strides in play!
This is just a hypothetical example, but I've had several similar cases, where my pre trade completely fails, only to see the inplay rapidly reach my target price - now going inplay to escape is of course not good if not planned.
Just wondering if there's any views for why there is sometimes such mismatches between inplay and pre-trade? Perhaps certain type of runners/races?
Best wishes,
Stu.
When pre-market doesn't match in-play market?
Generally Every runner will probably trade lower and higher then the price available just before the start.
I know what your saying. Definitely a front runner, all of a sudden its drifting. This is most likely oncourse traders who are about 5 secs away from you.
Risk management will be your answer to this. If you notice it moves out say 3 ticks then you want your wins to be more the 3 ticks.
So back just before the off at 5.2
Cut loss at 5.8
But makes sure you're taking a bigger gain then your planned loss. You want to take 4.2 as a green.
Its easier said then done, I haven't been trading long but even without any skill. Just with knowing a strike rate you can profit. Make sure your getting as much profit out and taking minimal loss.
If it keeps drifting 4/5 ticks. Set your loss to 7/8 ticks but make sure your getting more then 7/8 ticks gain. Obviously thats on a 50% strike rate. But I think you will understand.
Also
Lets say your stake is 100 and your making £2 on average of your trade. Every now and again you will get stung and if the horse falls or refuses to race you will lose your whole 100.
Lets pretend your bank is only 300, what happens if you had that bad day. Where you hit 3 in one afternoon trading.
If you want to trade in running make sure it is planned and know the likelyhood of how the horse will run.
Scott
I know what your saying. Definitely a front runner, all of a sudden its drifting. This is most likely oncourse traders who are about 5 secs away from you.
Risk management will be your answer to this. If you notice it moves out say 3 ticks then you want your wins to be more the 3 ticks.
So back just before the off at 5.2
Cut loss at 5.8
But makes sure you're taking a bigger gain then your planned loss. You want to take 4.2 as a green.
Its easier said then done, I haven't been trading long but even without any skill. Just with knowing a strike rate you can profit. Make sure your getting as much profit out and taking minimal loss.
If it keeps drifting 4/5 ticks. Set your loss to 7/8 ticks but make sure your getting more then 7/8 ticks gain. Obviously thats on a 50% strike rate. But I think you will understand.
Also
Lets say your stake is 100 and your making £2 on average of your trade. Every now and again you will get stung and if the horse falls or refuses to race you will lose your whole 100.
Lets pretend your bank is only 300, what happens if you had that bad day. Where you hit 3 in one afternoon trading.
If you want to trade in running make sure it is planned and know the likelyhood of how the horse will run.
Scott
The first thing you should be doing is making sure you differentiate between your pre and in play trading.
NEVER take a pre-race trade in play under any circumstances - if you want to do both make sure you can clearly distinguish between the two and ensure any pre-race position is closed and forgot about - then if you want to open a B2L or L2B to take in-play then that's a separate trade and should be based on how you foresee the race unfolding.
When the race does turn in play you can often get a price spike one way or another and more often than not its just a pre-race trader being caught with a large open position, as the race turns in play and the money thins out leaving just those orders with "Keep bets" ticked even trying to close a position of just a few hundred quid can move a price several ticks in a instant - if you pay attention and watch the activity on the ladder closely in the final seconds before it goes IR you can often spot the times when this is likely to happen.
NEVER take a pre-race trade in play under any circumstances - if you want to do both make sure you can clearly distinguish between the two and ensure any pre-race position is closed and forgot about - then if you want to open a B2L or L2B to take in-play then that's a separate trade and should be based on how you foresee the race unfolding.
When the race does turn in play you can often get a price spike one way or another and more often than not its just a pre-race trader being caught with a large open position, as the race turns in play and the money thins out leaving just those orders with "Keep bets" ticked even trying to close a position of just a few hundred quid can move a price several ticks in a instant - if you pay attention and watch the activity on the ladder closely in the final seconds before it goes IR you can often spot the times when this is likely to happen.
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stueytrader
- Posts: 877
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Thanks guys - some good advice in there.
I am working on never letting myself go in play (unless planned to do that), though still occasional lapse (guess many do that).
Although these are useful strategy points about the trades themselves, there was also another point to my post, which was to question how closely linked the moves during pre market and inplay market are? Perhaps I was a little naive, but I used to consider the assumption was correct that horses that would shorten during a race were also more likely to shorten in the pre-market, but perhaps that is too simple and not accurate?
Stu.
I am working on never letting myself go in play (unless planned to do that), though still occasional lapse (guess many do that).
Although these are useful strategy points about the trades themselves, there was also another point to my post, which was to question how closely linked the moves during pre market and inplay market are? Perhaps I was a little naive, but I used to consider the assumption was correct that horses that would shorten during a race were also more likely to shorten in the pre-market, but perhaps that is too simple and not accurate?
Stu.
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
stuetrader
i battled with the same problem for quite a while and made some rules myself for this back to lay,after learning the hard way by losing lots of money ,i completely understand what your saying about this and a horse goes off at a great pace ,front runner etc jumped 2 perfectly and the price is drifting so you cash out for a large loss ,only to see the price contract the next 2 seconds,
this is how i handle these now,
i get more than i lose so its ok to lose ,its all part of the stratagy.
my normally btl is 10% of my bank,if he is an absolute out and out front runner with little or no other pace in the race it will be 20% of my bank,i like to be out at the latest right after the first jump.
never and i mean absolutly never cash out from a btl once the decission is made for the trade stay in,because by default even if my selection stays in the first 4 the price will contract by default as the others go out the back or fall as they go to 700-1000/1 the book must contract on whats left ,this will happen more often than not and you will get matched
just be really selective on your picks do alot of homework normally i spend 2 hours per night going through the runners and cards ,
and one other thing ,
as the race is starting and the front runner lines up at the back,lay the shit out of them,if a horse front runs and performs well doing that (which is why we chose it in the first place)why would they hold it up at the back ? too high in weights ? a good day to lay him with a short price ?ive made alot of money spoting these and it makes all the hours work worth wile ,they donr come every day ,but when they do its very very good ,
Marc
i battled with the same problem for quite a while and made some rules myself for this back to lay,after learning the hard way by losing lots of money ,i completely understand what your saying about this and a horse goes off at a great pace ,front runner etc jumped 2 perfectly and the price is drifting so you cash out for a large loss ,only to see the price contract the next 2 seconds,
this is how i handle these now,
i get more than i lose so its ok to lose ,its all part of the stratagy.
my normally btl is 10% of my bank,if he is an absolute out and out front runner with little or no other pace in the race it will be 20% of my bank,i like to be out at the latest right after the first jump.
never and i mean absolutly never cash out from a btl once the decission is made for the trade stay in,because by default even if my selection stays in the first 4 the price will contract by default as the others go out the back or fall as they go to 700-1000/1 the book must contract on whats left ,this will happen more often than not and you will get matched
just be really selective on your picks do alot of homework normally i spend 2 hours per night going through the runners and cards ,
and one other thing ,
as the race is starting and the front runner lines up at the back,lay the shit out of them,if a horse front runs and performs well doing that (which is why we chose it in the first place)why would they hold it up at the back ? too high in weights ? a good day to lay him with a short price ?ive made alot of money spoting these and it makes all the hours work worth wile ,they donr come every day ,but when they do its very very good ,
Marc
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stueytrader
- Posts: 877
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Thanks Marc,
You make some really interesting points about these problematic cases with the BTL type selections, and yes I agree with the average result of these type being key in the thinking. I have also seen a few of those held up before the race starts like you say, though seems you often have to be quick to lay them, as the market often reacts quickly too. Your point about selectivity is probably key too - with not all similar horses trading in the same way, as you suggest.
Cheers,
Stu.
You make some really interesting points about these problematic cases with the BTL type selections, and yes I agree with the average result of these type being key in the thinking. I have also seen a few of those held up before the race starts like you say, though seems you often have to be quick to lay them, as the market often reacts quickly too. Your point about selectivity is probably key too - with not all similar horses trading in the same way, as you suggest.
Cheers,
Stu.
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
stueytrader,
there is more to it that that,
pm me and ill give you some more on it..
also for anyone who uses pace as a guide i would highly recommend proform racing race guides ,there all free for boxing day and i would highly recommend them,well worth 50 quid a month,
have a look now .because there so tight they wouldent give you the smell of there fart. im suprised all boxing day is free,
Marc
there is more to it that that,
pm me and ill give you some more on it..
also for anyone who uses pace as a guide i would highly recommend proform racing race guides ,there all free for boxing day and i would highly recommend them,well worth 50 quid a month,
have a look now .because there so tight they wouldent give you the smell of there fart. im suprised all boxing day is free,
Marc