HI Ya lads
I was reading this last week and thought about looking into stats and laying him etc,but i cant be arsed ,
anyway he fell again at the last fence today so i looked at it again.
bottom line is that ruby walsh falls off 25% more than other jockeys,and alot at the last fence.
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake
RUBY FALLS OFF ALOT
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ijustlovesnickers
- Posts: 211
- Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 4:06 pm
I can answer that for you. I haven't opened the link to read it as I do not have much time tonight..I doubt its covered what I will say.
If that is true, It wouldn't surprise me at all, but that is because Ruby Walsh is a very special Jockey and he will always get the best out of a horse....
See, I think what your thinking about is incorrect for making a profit, When Ruby Walsh jumps a fence he generally lets the horse find its own stride and pretty much steers(you need serious balls)
Very very few jockey can do this and pretty much no one else will even attempt to...
But on the other hand because of his ridding style he will win more the other jockeys... most probably balancing out his wins and making him still slightly better then everyone else.
So even though he falls more then other Jockeys he still wins more... thats down to the way he rides. His riding style just means hes prone to fall more...
No advantage exist IMO.
Horses falling is a actually quite small anyway.
Cheers
If that is true, It wouldn't surprise me at all, but that is because Ruby Walsh is a very special Jockey and he will always get the best out of a horse....
See, I think what your thinking about is incorrect for making a profit, When Ruby Walsh jumps a fence he generally lets the horse find its own stride and pretty much steers(you need serious balls)
Very very few jockey can do this and pretty much no one else will even attempt to...
But on the other hand because of his ridding style he will win more the other jockeys... most probably balancing out his wins and making him still slightly better then everyone else.
So even though he falls more then other Jockeys he still wins more... thats down to the way he rides. His riding style just means hes prone to fall more...
No advantage exist IMO.
Horses falling is a actually quite small anyway.
Cheers
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
I looked at the link and it uses numbers to make its point about as well as tabloids use numbers to make a scientific point - try but fail.
The falling at the last fence figures are so small overall, they're insignificant in the long run. Referring to falling off 25% moreso than other jockeys equally insignificant considering the variables not taken into account, Grade of race, distance, course, horses form, handicap rating, pace of the race, general stable form, position in market, jockeys recent form.
One could ask 100 people to eat carrots once a week for a year, and another 100 to avoid carrots for a year. If at the end of the following year the carrot eaters have 1 person diagnosed with cancer, and the carrot avoiders have 2 people diagnosed with cancer, then eating carrots once a week will reduce your chances of getting cancer by 50%
The carrot eating crowd could be alcoholic, chain smoking, drug addicted criminals, and the non-carroting could be healthy, exercising, teetotal, non-smokers, but 50% is a good figure and gets good coverage in science-retarded papers, we'll go with that!
Eat your carrots anyway, but limit your bananas, too high in potassium.
Carrots section directly related and paraphrased to a segment in the book Bad Science by Ben Goldacre, highly recommended.
The falling at the last fence figures are so small overall, they're insignificant in the long run. Referring to falling off 25% moreso than other jockeys equally insignificant considering the variables not taken into account, Grade of race, distance, course, horses form, handicap rating, pace of the race, general stable form, position in market, jockeys recent form.
One could ask 100 people to eat carrots once a week for a year, and another 100 to avoid carrots for a year. If at the end of the following year the carrot eaters have 1 person diagnosed with cancer, and the carrot avoiders have 2 people diagnosed with cancer, then eating carrots once a week will reduce your chances of getting cancer by 50%
The carrot eating crowd could be alcoholic, chain smoking, drug addicted criminals, and the non-carroting could be healthy, exercising, teetotal, non-smokers, but 50% is a good figure and gets good coverage in science-retarded papers, we'll go with that!
Eat your carrots anyway, but limit your bananas, too high in potassium.
Carrots section directly related and paraphrased to a segment in the book Bad Science by Ben Goldacre, highly recommended.
What the stats don't mention is, just how many horses Ruby delivers at the final fence leading BECAUSE of his unique riding style. Plenty of other jocks simply wouldn't be in that position. As previously mentioned, he lets the horse do the thinking - hes a rare talent.
Good luck to anyone thinking they can profit from him falling at the last.
Good luck to anyone thinking they can profit from him falling at the last.