Cheltenham 2016 Day One

[JollyGreen]

Euler has already put this on the blog http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/03 ... e-preview/ so here it is for the forumites.

Willie do it again?

As I wrote last year, Willie Mullins is once again looking likely to dominate the first day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival. It does seem, according to some that he simply has to turn up on Day 1 of this year’s equine Olympics and leaves everyone quaking in their boots; especially the bookmakers! I have to say that Willie may not have it all his own way as his horses do not, in my humble opinion, look as good as last year’s.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

On purely bare form and figures this could appear to be one of the weaker entries for Mullins but Min is highly regarded and his rating from Timeform is suffixed with a P which in my mind means Plenty More Potential!! This is something of a benevolent race for Willie Mullins having won it with Champagne Fever (2013) Vautor (2015) and Douvan (2016). The latter runs in the next race and he looks a certainty.

The horse I like in this race is Altior who travels like a dream in his races. The form from his last race at Kempton is good and he has already won at Cheltenham so he’s proven he can handle the course. I mentioned he is a strong traveler and this presents an excellent back to lay opportunity. I can see him being close up as they descend the hill and turn for home and his price should have contracted enough to offer a decent profit. Once word of caution, he does tend to clout the odd hurdle and in the hustle and bustle of this race we have to hope it doesn’t hinder him too much. This horse should be the favourite in my humble opinion but the bookies seem to be taking no chance with W P Mullins and Min is a warm favourite.

Arkle Chase

I cannot say that much about this race as it seems that Douvan only has to go down to come back the winner. This is a stern jumping test especially at the pace they will go so any mistake will be amplified and we all know there is no such thing as a certainty in horse racing. Having said all that I would be surprised if Douvan didn’t win. Once again, the party pooper could be Nicky Henderson who saddles Vaniteux a somewhat fly in the ointment if he can get his jumping together. He’s made a few blunders in his racing and if he repeats that at Cheltenham he will have no chance. Barring accidents, I really cannot see anything but Douvan winning this race.

Ultima Handicap Chase

I have no strong opinions on this cavalry charge but I would suggest keeping an eye on Holywell. This horse won the race in 2014 and then ran a decent fourth in the 2015 Gold Cup. Any repeat of that form would surely see him go close in this. I feel the ground will suit him as he appears to show his best form on anything with Good in the description. We must also remember he beat Don Cossack by 10 lengths at Aintree off level weights and that horse is now Timeform’s top rated chaser and favourite for this year’s Gold Cup. He’s had a few “quiet” runs, read into that what you will and it seems to me they have targeted this race. That is just my opinion and with so many runners you will need a fair amount of luck

Champion Hurdle

We finally see Annie Power take her chance in this prestigious event and to be perfectly honest she could go very close! In last year’s write-up I suggested she was a near certainty and plenty of money changed hands as she looked to have the race in the bag. It looked so easy it was like she had joined in after the penultimate hurdle. That crashing last hurdle fall cost the clock beaters plenty of money but saved the bookies a fortune! It is hard for me to see past her in this race but we must realise this is the gold medal event for 2 mile hurdlers and not the Mare’s Hurdle she attempted last year. She gets the 7lb sex allowance here and that could make all the difference. Identity Thief looks high class and has the form to win this race. Nicky Henderson has two horses of interest but we have to take a leap of faith with both. My Tent or Yours is returning after an injury but he will be fit and ready to go as his trainer has proven he is capable of winning with a horse like this. The same trainer has another high caliber horse in Peace and Co and on the bare facts he doesn’t really appeal. If you look a bit closer, I feel you can offer him a chance. This is my opinion and obviously it is subjective but hopefully I can offer an insight. He won the Triumph Hurdle in 2015 which is decent form and then he seemed to go off the boil. He pulled his head off at Cheltenham in the International Hurdle and then fell in a hole at Sandown. Why consider him then? He’s had a breathing operation since then and as he is a free going horse the ground at Cheltenham could well suit him. It’s a shot in the dark but once again it could be a decent back to lay opportunity.

Mares’ Hurdle

Willie Mullins almost owns this race and they may have to give him the trophy and create a new one if he wins it again this year! Annie Power looked home for all money in 2015 but her crashing fall handed the race to stable-mate Glens Melody. I know this is boring and predictable but Vroum Vroum Mag looks strong for this renewal so perhaps the trophy makers had better start making a new version? Last year’s runner up Polly Peachum should go well again and if the Mullin’s charge is not as good as we believe or if she makes some errors then Polly Peachum may put up a decent fight.

The next races are impossible and I have no opinion on them whatsoever.

Good luck!

[convoysur-2]

excellent post..thanks jollygreen

[readdick]

We could see a Willie Mullins effect for the Champion hurdle if Min wins the first. There is a possible four timer on and if Min wins the first, Douvan should be a penalty kick so the price of Annie Power could be smashed at this point followed by Vroum Vroum Mag in the next. From a betting perspective Douvan and VVM should provide a double but the other two have question marks over them. So a lot of price action may revolve around the result of the first !

[ijustlovesnickers]

I dont get this forum sometimes, I got a lot of stick for uploading racing selections..Yet there is a whole blog now about which horses are most likely to win today? All about gambling but it is a trading forum? right?

So with all the Cheltenham hype, bet angel has turned into a tipping/horse racing service?

I hate being controversial but I saw it and I couldn't help it.
Without no disrespect: Everything stated in this blog has no originality.
Anyone in the world that has a little glimmer of racing knowledge could tell us, all of Willies Horse will be likely to win. No statistics, information or facts really...
It is a professional traders opinion about gambling...

A few quotes
" This horse should be the favourite in my humble opinion but the bookies seem to be taking no chance with W P Mullins and Min is a warm favourite"

Every runner in this race could improve massively from any run that have ever had. This is why Novices is in the title... How anyone can single handily suggest what should be favourite. You could well be right here, This horse has shown alot... But with novice races its not about previous form its about potential and ability. A horse can only beat what is in front of him.

"On purely bare form and figures this could appear to be one of the weaker entries for Mullins but Min is highly regarded"

Correct me if im wrong, I saw an interview yesterday... Ruby Walsh has said he doesn't expect Min to be as good as Vautour or Faugheen. Cant be that highly regarded? Hes been dirfting too. He also said there was no value in Douvan and that Vroom Vroom Mag was his best chance of the day.

There is some good back to lays in this post.. but it tends to lean towards gambling.. were there is no value at all. Gambling is about finding Value.. and if a "PROFESSIONAL TRADER" is prepared to offer their humble opinion about the most likely winner then im afraid your soon run out of money from gambling.


I will offer some advice... WAIT and see what happens in the first race... EXCLUDING DOUVAN!!! If Min win the first race... money will come for every Mullins horse. Get on them early... IF MIN gets beat... lay them all... Your have a nice trade.

But just ignore DOUVAN...

Im really sorry if I have offend anyone but if you find this blog interesting... visit the racing post its free and far far more informative... Nothing here to suggest anything exceptional..Its just a traders opinion on Day 1 of the festival..

I be controversial.. Mullins big 4... 3 to beat?

[PeterLe]

I dont get this forum sometimes...

I know you are relatively new to the forum.
Jolly (Dave) has been around since day one and more importantly has a TRACK RECORD. He's never that far off the mark, That's why he gets a warm welcome. With respect to you; you have no track record.
If you check out some of his posts regarding Cheltenham/National etc, you'll see that plenty of people (myself inc) have capitalised on his information over the years.
Regards
Peter

[ijustlovesnickers]

I dont get this forum sometimes...

I know you are relatively new to the forum.
Jolly (Dave) has been around since day one and more importantly has a TRACK RECORD. He's never that far off the mark, That's why he gets a warm welcome. With respect to you; you have no track record.
If you check out some of his posts regarding Cheltenham/National etc, you'll see that plenty of people (myself inc) have capitalised on his information over the years.
Regards
Peter

At no point is my comment a dig, again just because I am new on the forum people seem to think I am new to racing?
I was trying to offer my track record but the truth is I dont want to anymore. I just made a comment on a post. Thats what a forum is.. discussion. My response to this discussion is I believe it be wrong.

What I am trying to say is... this is a trading forum.. everything mentioned here is on the racingpost website... Why not tag a link to it?
Just because someone has a good track record also doesnt suggest there always right. This blog is so far of the mark thats its pathetic. I dont want offend anyone but that is my opinion.

Every horse mentioned in this blog is trained by wither Mullins, Henderson and Jonjo..


This would be like me writing a blog about the fifa world cup... Only mentioning England, Germany and Spain.

We know the obvious, and hes right there are some cracking horses there, but its just a pointless blog. Truly.
Come on guys....

[convoysur-2]

there are some very good arbs to be found between betfair and betdaq in the place markets if your into that kind of thingy

[convoysur-2]

jolly green is very very well respected on this forum,
he has helped many many people from day one,and his advice level is expert ,nothing less that expert,
now once and for all smelly knickers why dont you just shut your bloody mouth ,you drama queen attention seeking wanker.
always telling people about what you think,well i think no one gives a shit,
asshole,,,

[JollyGreen]

Life rule #1

[ijustlovesnickers]

jolly green is very very well respected on this forum,
he has helped many many people from day one,and his advice level is expert ,nothing less that expert,
now once and for all smelly knickers why dont you just shut your bloody mouth ,you drama queen attention seeking wanker.
always telling people about what you think,well i think no one gives a shit,
asshole,,,

hmmm

[to75ne]

hmmm

yawn

[convoysur-2]

Great call on altior jollygreen
Thanks

[andyfuller]

Can we just keep this thread on track please and talk about Cheltenham day 1 - in years to come when people are wanting to look back at it they and I will want to know what happened at Cheltenham.

So on that front - I went in steady for the first on Betdaq, to test the waters and found it pretty good so will be stepping it up from now.

Not the best result of the week hopefully but a decent enough for a sighter, the stakes totaled £12,846 giving a return of 0.4694% for those that are interested.

Edit: Commission was 2.06%

2016_03_15 - 1330.png

[ijustlovesnickers]

hmmm

yawn

troll

[ijustlovesnickers]

jolly green is very very well respected on this forum,
he has helped many many people from day one,and his advice level is expert ,nothing less that expert,
now once and for all smelly knickers why dont you just shut your bloody mouth ,you drama queen attention seeking wanker.
always telling people about what you think,well i think no one gives a shit,
asshole,,,

defensive troll?

Touched a nerve i think? If know one cares why are you even writing back?

I am entitled to my opinion... You know what you continue to follow the leader and have second best your whole life. Wish for seconds best you can will always get it.

Keep licking ass and sucking up to everyone your whole life.

I simply responded because the author of this post wrote something that HAD NO ORIGINALITY. it was a pointless post. Go to the racing post... its all there.
But that doesnt mean I was horrible? I wasnt offensive? I wasnt nasty?

What is the point in a forum if your going to abusive to my opinion.

This is a trading forum, yet its about gambling because all of a sudden its the Cheltenham festival.

I expect that you should lose your account there.

You really are pathetic too, You dont have my anger my friend.