Cheltenham 2016 Day 2

[JollyGreen]

Cheltenham Day 2

This looks a tricky day to find horses capable of springing a surprise or horses you know will run well at a big price and offer a decent back to lay opportunity.

Neptune Hurdle

Well I guess this will fall under the headline “stating the bleedin’ obvious” but I am not sure what else you can say here. It’s all very well talking about potential and improvement because these horses are novices but we must bear in mind this is Cheltenham so there would need to be some huge improvement from a horse in order for it to win. To achieve that we would need to know some information that is only privy to the connections. The form is there for all to see and it is rare indeed that you will find something which others have missed. Perhaps at a lower class race, yes, but at Cheltenham in a Grade 1 Novice; I think not!

The two best horses in this race are Yanworth and Yorkhill and preference is for the former but at 2.32 there is not much room for manoeuvre. I suppose the good news is this horse is trained by Alan King so it could break the apparent stranglehold of Mullins, Henderson and O’Neill. Hang on though it is owned by JP McManus so perhaps it’s not original enough? Both of these are strong travelers with Yanworth generally held up and coming with a late run.

RSA Chase

Once again we have a clear form horse in the race in the shape of More of That. This horse won the World Hurdle in 2014 beating none other than Annie Power who won the Champion Hurdle today. That day he was rated 5lb inferior and gave 7lb to her and still managed to win. He is by far the best horse in the race and only No More Heroes looks capable of giving him a race. Now this is Cheltenham so we know things can go wrong but we can’t hang our hat on ifs and buts, we must look at what we know and that points straight at More of That.

Coral Cup

A real bookmakers’ benevolent race so good luck if you play. I will simply trade the market and be happy if I can grab a profit. I could recommend five horses in this race and still not have one of them in the frame.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

If Sprinter Sacre could recover his old form, he would win this with ease but sadly he is not the same horse. Once again Mr Mullins holds the nap hand with Un De Sceaux looking likely to keep the bandwagon very much rolling on! He recently beat Sire de Grugy cozily and there is no better 2-mile chaser at the moment. The price is pitiful but from a trading angle he will front run so if you don’t mind playing in running then his price should contract from the off and it will be a matter of when you exit. Yes, he will need a clear round and he’s fallen at 1/4f and 1/8f but I can see yet another winner for Mullins.

The Cross Country race is of no interest to me so I cannot offer any opinion on it

The Fred Winter at 16:50 is another cavalry charge and once again it will be a brave, or stupid, person who can claim to know the winner of this race. A horse to keep an eye on in terms of pre-race price is Campeador another of the JP Macmanus runners. He does like to target these races and this horse has the form and the potential to win this. His last run was a disappointment because he ruined any chance by pulling too hard. When he was let down, he found nothing. They are trying the hood this time so it’s either going to help him or he will go off like a scalded cat and pull again. If it isn’t the latter, then he has a chance. You could place an early back bet and watch the early stages to see if he settles okay. If he does you should have a decent back to lay opportunity if he doesn’t then you should dump the order and cut your losses if possible.

The Bumper has too many unknowns so that is all for Wednesday.

Good luck

[convoysur-2]

thank you jolly,,,great post

[JollyGreen]

I just wanted to add something about the Coral Cup. I get asked by family and friends to offer them a selection in each race for some "fun bets". Now before someone representing the gambling Police says that it is wrong, we are talking about betting at Cheltenham and Aintree only.

There are two horses lurking lower down the weights in Blazer and Days of Heaven and they may offer a decent Dutching and BTL chance. Blazer put up a great performance at Leopardstown in heavy going. He didn't beat that much but it was a decent effort and he was all the rage in his next race at Newbury. The ground was desperate that day, they appeared to be swimming home so I think we can forgive him that. He has improvement in him and at around 17.0 he could offer a decent BTL

Days of Heaven started his career strongly but then it appears he was overfaced and struggled. He is a strong traveller and at 40+ he offers a BTL chance. Be aware, he can be temperamental at the start so perhaps wait until the last second to place your bet as you may get a bigger price.

This is just my view on a couple of horses at decent prices; we won't be looking to plan our next holiday on any profits!

[megarain]

Betfred price push

Yanworth 7/4 max £100 .. Doesn't stop people at Cheltenham using multiple outlets etc .. Saw some punters, with £800 etc .. I got £500 on, no prob .. Up till 11am.

Un de sceaux evens ..

Basically, giving up £10 per hundred, if u arb .. Pays for coffee .. Just ..