Using the winner to pick a loser

[brimfieldmg]

I have been using a rule to back the likely winner based on it passing a certain price and it works often.

It got me thinking that what if I use that idea to lay the possible loser.

So I set up the following by tweaking the Back bet strategy

General:
Place a lay bet
Relative to in play 1 second after going in play to 10 minutes
Trigger once
Applies to selection in position 3(sorted on favoritism)

Parameters:
Best market price
By liability £10

Conditions:
The market is in play
Fixed odds condition
Selection Nominated in position 1 (sorted on favoritism)
Last traded price less than 1.35

The premise of this is once the possible favorite is spotted a lay is put on a horse as a likely loser. However I have not been able to get this to fire.

If someone can spot the problem and is happy to help I would be most grateful.

[Dallas]

Assuming its not a oversight with the trigger times you have set (ie should be armed till 10 mins 00:10:00 and not 10 secs 00:00:10 after going IR) then everything you have put there is correct for what you want to do.

Its likely that it is triggering but just not getting matched, there is a 2 sec in-play delay on all bets below £2 so with a £10 liability if the odds are over 5.0 for the 3rd fav when the lay is triggered (which it surely will be) then the stake used will be less than £2 and incur this 2 second delay - so it could very well be triggering but by the time it reaches the market the odds may have drifted even higher.

If you check to see if its at least triggering (using the log file) and if not ill suggest something else

Ps - good to see someone not only modifying the shared rules but also drawing idea's from them and going down a different route with them

[brimfieldmg]

Hi Dallas

Thanks for the reply.

The timing is set from 10 seconds to 10 minutes.

I am using the "Export reports on market closure" option and this is the log file for one of the races that I used this Rule on.

01/05/2016 13:36:08: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
01/05/2016 13:36:09: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
01/05/2016 13:36:09: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
01/05/2016 13:37:39: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended

This is the result for each race I put this onto.

There does not appear to be any attempt by Guardian automation to execute the rule.

Any further suggestions on how to debug this would be welcome.

Thanks

Martin

[Mikky]

I have been using a rule to back the likely winner based on it passing a certain price and it works often.

It got me thinking that what if I use that idea to lay the possible loser.

So I set up the following by tweaking the Back bet strategy

General:
Place a lay bet
Relative to in play 1 second after going in play to 10 minutes
Trigger once
Applies to selection in position 3(sorted on favoritism)

Parameters:
Best market price
By liability £10

Conditions:
The market is in play
Fixed odds condition
Selection Nominated in position 1 (sorted on favoritism)
Last traded price less than 1.35

The premise of this is once the possible favorite is spotted a lay is put on a horse as a likely loser. However I have not been able to get this to fire.

If someone can spot the problem and is happy to help I would be most grateful.

I have been trying something similar - My plan was to keep using the back the likely winner at similar odds to you and find out what type of races it did well in and what type it did badly in and then reverse the automation, exactly like you in the races where backing the likely winner was less likely.

Only thing I can think of is do you have your refresh rate set to 200ms for guardian?

otherwise it looks like a similar setup to how i would have tried it out.

[Mikky]

I have been using a rule to back the likely winner based on it passing a certain price and it works often.

It got me thinking that what if I use that idea to lay the possible loser.

So I set up the following by tweaking the Back bet strategy

General:
Place a lay bet
Relative to in play 1 second after going in play to 10 minutes
Trigger once
Applies to selection in position 3(sorted on favoritism)

Parameters:
Best market price
By liability £10

Conditions:
The market is in play
Fixed odds condition
Selection Nominated in position 1 (sorted on favoritism)
Last traded price less than 1.35

The premise of this is once the possible favorite is spotted a lay is put on a horse as a likely loser. However I have not been able to get this to fire.

If someone can spot the problem and is happy to help I would be most grateful.

Just spotted this? Positon 3 and then position 1? EDIT - just realised your market order is not fixed so this is not the issue.

Maybe try changing your general setting to Any, as long as you have it set to only trigger once??

[novicestakes]

I run a similar strategy which works well.

I would advise on removing the 3rd Fav position, in favour of a an "Any Selection" rule with a >X and <x Lay Odds parameter

Mine works well like that and it also helps control losses (you will still get some)

An example would be Lay Odds of >5 and <15 - Then any horse meeting the criteria could qualify.

I would also set your arming time slightly away from the off, ie 30secs after start to avoid spikes and allow the race to settle.

If you look under the automation tab, are any of the rules firing? as mentioned, ensure your system is running as fast as possible.

[brimfieldmg]

Thank you for those replies.

I will look at the rule this morning and implement the suggestions to see if I can get the rule to execute.

Hopefully I can have a set of results to review this evening after the day is complete

Martin

[Dallas]

Just to add to a earlier comment from mikky about the refresh rates etc, if you leaving the rule unattended make sure you have "Automatically Switch Bet Angel Market" ticked on the main guardian banner and then that your main Bet Angel Screen is refreshing at 200ms as Mikky said.
Also with all todays racing you wont be able to trade them all because a lot will clash and you ll start swtiching to the next market before the previous has finished so make sure you have at least a 10 min gap between all races you run the rule on.

When you have time this thread will explain more about guardian refreshing and cycling
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=11491

[Blackmoor]

Hi Dallas,

I've read your excellent write up on Market Cycling and Refresh rates, but just seeing your previous reply on this thread to "make sure you have Automatically Switch Bet Angel Market" ticked has confused/worried me.

For IR automation I have the Guardian refresh interval set to 200ms, and restrict refresh set to 120/720, but I don't switch to Bet Angel market, as I may be active in a market unrelated to the automation. I thought the Guardian settings would control the behaviour alone, rather than relying on the main window ?

My automation works as I would have expected, so just wondered if I am missing something here..?

Thanks

Steve

[Dallas]

Blackmoor, the way you have yours set is correct and no need to worry about altering them, the reason for my previous post was so the orginal poster could leave his rule unattended today with the minmimum amount of fuss.

Rather than try to explian all the individual settings and options avalible within guardian especially if he was not aware of them that was just a quick way to ensure that side of things where set up right to trigger his rules today, they can then check later after reading the refreshing/cycling thead if some of the settings and options explained in that thread are better for there purpose just as your doing.

[Blackmoor]

Phew, that's a relief ! - thanks for confirming Dallas

[brimfieldmg]

Just a quick follow up from my original post.

I made the amendments as suggested and used ANY as the selection choice to place the lay bet. I also added conditions to narrow this down to a range of odds. I have also reviewed the Guardian settings as they affect refresh etc.

I am pleased to say that the rule executed and I got some promising results.

Many thanks to those who helped.

Martin

[jonesd4]

Morning all

I have been using a variation of this rule which is giving promising results on the uk market, however I have been trying it this morning on the Australian markets and found that when the front runner ducks below 1.4 the bot looks to place a lay on ANY selection betweeen 6 and 16 it will sometimes lay on the front runner because it's lay price is vastly different to it's back price (1.39 back to 8 lay for example)

My question is how can I prevent my bet from firing if it is going to try to lay on the front runner.

Many thanks in advance for your consideration of this question

regards

David

[Crazyskier]

Morning all

I have been using a variation of this rule which is giving promising results on the uk market, however I have been trying it this morning on the Australian markets and found that when the front runner ducks below 1.4 the bot looks to place a lay on ANY selection betweeen 6 and 16 it will sometimes lay on the front runner because it's lay price is vastly different to it's back price (1.39 back to 8 lay for example)

My question is how can I prevent my bet from firing if it is going to try to lay on the front runner.

Many thanks in advance for your consideration of this question

regards

David

Hi David.

Try setting the LAY price of favourite to 1.4 before triggering? This is how I do it. Some races the lay doesn't get matched, especially if the lay to liability means that the stake is below £2, therefore taking an extra second to reach the market.

It does mean however, that the matched lays are always on other runners.

[jonesd4]

Hi Crazyskier and thanks for your reply, I will implement your suggestion, cheers