Hi
Peter or Dallas or anyone, I have one question that I have baffled myself with. I am a Swing pre race trader and my strike rate on odds between 1.5 – 2.98 is really high, I make good amounts as the markets seem really quite straight forward to read, obviously with Cheltenham, Royal Ascot etc I scalp this range. However when I try to trade say between 3.1 – 5.0 I always encore loss upon loss. The question is what is the ideal point regarding to the odds where to swing trade and what is the starting point for scalping where the market is more stable. I manage to get some swing movement between 3.1-say 3.9 but its quite slow, so maybe this is also a scalp point. What are your conclusions many thanks in advance
What are Swing and where is Scalp
Hi, anyone hereAlpha322 wrote:Hi
Peter or Dallas or anyone, I have one question that I have baffled myself with. I am a Swing pre race trader and my strike rate on odds between 1.5 – 2.98 is really high, I make good amounts as the markets seem really quite straight forward to read, obviously with Cheltenham, Royal Ascot etc I scalp this range. However when I try to trade say between 3.1 – 5.0 I always encore loss upon loss. The question is what is the ideal point regarding to the odds where to swing trade and what is the starting point for scalping where the market is more stable. I manage to get some swing movement between 3.1-say 3.9 but its quite slow, so maybe this is also a scalp point. What are your conclusions many thanks in advance
Ok, I myself tend to presently manually scalp the markets pre-race and never in-play, so maybe we should start with that clarification - i.e. 100% pre-race.
On the range you mention (1.5-2.98), then one can suppose that you're looking at the fave and therefore, liquidity will probably be your friend here. also (and this is purely my own observation), the market can be boxed up into a nice fully functioning system that reacts to both shortening and drifting prices on all runners. In the case of reading the fave, you are subliminally absorbing those piston like actions that are exhibited from the fluctuations in price on the other runners. It is therefore, MORE straightfwd to read and thus a more measureable outcome. ALSO, if a range has been established inside the band you mention, then you no longer have the fear factor and can quite easily take the middle ground and scalp from say 1.9-2.5 (and back), knowing that potential downsides are less likely and that you can stop out without the urgency of a steamer or drifter scenario developing.
Where I feel it's tricky is when the fave drifts out and a new (pet) fave marches in to be traded by external forces. I'm still grappling as to what is the best approach on this too, as even tho the market is in orchestra with this runner, the order book is most definitely is not and thus the reading of the market on these scenarios can be misleading (as is obvs the intention).
It's my personal mission at the moment to box up this market mechanism and produce a model that examines all components and predicts the direction of the *fave*, based on the absolute requirement for the other components to stay inside a known 100% (think of it as book% for ease of understanding) and move in/out accordingly. I won't say I've cracked it yet (far from it), but I have some encouraging results and now have a prototype in play that places FAKE bets on both a scalp and swing basis by looking the the actions of this closed system (based on moving averages, %age of book now vs last change in LTP and other novel indicators).
I'm either a million miles away from getting this to work in an automated fashion, or literally on the cusp as it's been tantallisingly accurate on > 60% of occasions in recent weeks (up from <40% a few weeks back).
I apologise if this is digressing from your question in any way, I just wanted to point out that I too have struggled with reading the market once into the domain of mentally monitoring many simultaneous real time changes and therefore decided to try and determine the underlaying metrics that were cause and effect. All i can say is that across the board, anything that goes down, will push something else up. the difficulty is calculating where that deficit will crop up on the other side and being able to party on that outcome. difficult, but definitely not impossible.
Will keep you posted on unfolding further research.