Like a broken record - yup, another greening quanderry

[jimibt]

All (btw- this is different to a similar nuanced question from the other day, just in case you think it's groundhog day),

I have a little dilemma that may just be down to my very bad approach on things. I have a rule that fires off lay bets (based on signalled notch points) that I need to resolve a greening issue on.

Presently, I have a rather DUMB greening rule that says:

green#1 - if profit > 10 and < 15 - do the biz
green#2 - if profit > 15 and < 20 - do the biz
green#3 - if profit > 20 do the biz and yell yee ha!!

Now, altho yee ha can often be heard, it only occurs if things move so fast that green#1 and green#2 are tardy in their reactions.

What I'd like to do is green DOWN. What I mean by this is that I'd like to record the fact that I've crossed green#1 threshold, crossed green#2 threshold but haven't QUITE manged to cross the green#3 threshold. In this case, I'm happy to just pop off on green#2 and be done. However, as you're aware, the law of order dictates that we green as we find.

My thinking was that potentially I set a signal on each level and allow it to be bypassed, with the expectation that we hit the next greening level. However, if the next greening level isn't hit (within a specified time for example), then we just take what's on offer.

So, is this a reasonable approach to skipping over greening options, or am I just being greedy . My stats bear out the potential to traverse this greening tree, so I'm obviously keen to not bail out on a fools errand in preference to a kings ransom!!

Happy to hear a few thoughts on the subject, albeit that I've expressed it clearly enough.

[shakespeare]

Given my (lack of) experience and skill I am like a three-legged donkey to your thoroughbred; but I do want to say one thing as comment.

If you green as your profit is going up then you're very likely to be able to green out successfully. But if you just set a signal at the high profit level and then try to green out when the profit falls, then you're trying to get out of a market moving against you, and you might miss out completely on your profit. This is assuming you're greening out in play; you didn't specify if that was the case.

[jimibt]

Given my (lack of) experience and skill I am like a three-legged donkey to your thoroughbred; but I do want to say one thing as comment.

If you green as your profit is going up then you're very likely to be able to green out successfully. But if you just set a signal at the high profit level and then try to green out when the profit falls, then you're trying to get out of a market moving against you, and you might miss out completely on your profit. This is assuming you're greening out in play; you didn't specify if that was the case.

as for donkey and thoroughbred; definitely never assume that. it's only now after 5-6 months that i'm making proper headway on this, and your comment is more than welcome.

but anyway - good point there. this particular gotcha is IR. My idea is that i monitor the progression (or otherwise) of the price and attempt to take the best greening option. Thus, if we hit green#1, we measure its progress twds green#2. if that is looking screwed, then we accept green#1 as our favourite black sheep cousin (whom i have to be honest, were always my faves as a kid, but i now see that their older siblings had a lot to say too ) and go for it, otherwise, step back a few tentative steps and see how green#2 (and its macho bro, green#3) are doing...

this is all academic research tbh, in the heat of the day, i'm happy for a very gentle punch in the face (her name is green#1)