Making Poor Decisions

[Korattt]

Any regulars on here go through a spate of poor decision making & poor execution?, today started off reasonably well but for some bizarre reason got caught in play a couple of times which over the past few days unlike me has become more frequent, maybe I suffer from decision fatigue, so disappointed in myself.. any thoughts?

[SeaHorseRacing]

Yes.

What is fantastic is you have noticed an error.
If you keep monitoring errors and create a set of your own rules, you will be able to practise these and eventually eliminate simple errors.

[jimibt]

Any regulars on here go through a spate of poor decision making & poor execution?, today started off reasonably well but for some bizarre reason got caught in play a couple of times which over the past few days unlike me has become more frequent, maybe I suffer from decision fatigue, so disappointed in myself.. any thoughts?

my simple (and over simplified) advice regards your current dilemma is to always have a simple BA rule in guardian that greens/reds up at 5 seconds before the official race start. this way, you don't indulge your fantasy that it MIGHT just turn around before the official start (you'll find as many greens as reds IF you choose your races appropriately, but more importantly, won't go in play).

it honestly is a matter of breaking things down, spotting your weaknesses and shoring them up.

[to75ne]

with respect how can you get caught inplay?

it really is quite difficult to do that these days, there really is no need or any real excuse for doing so (most of the time) if you really dont wish to.

[Korattt]

thanks guys, I'll look into implementing that tomorrow re 5 seconds etc.. I'll hold me hands up and admit it's down to my poor execution with getting caught in play.. purely down to me holding out for that last tick

[jimibt]

thanks guys, I'll look into implementing that tomorrow re 5 seconds etc.. I'll hold me hands up and admit it's down to my poor execution with getting caught in play.. purely down to me holding out for that last tick

don't wanna sound like the boring school teacher (and actually, nowadays, they are quite a progressive bunch ), BUT, if you're playing things right, then you (should) only ever be down a small percentage of your stake unless there's a massive drift/steam. so yes, put a safeguard in place via guardian and accept its adjudication - i.e. time up. of course, ahead of that you will no doubt have exited on a manual green for a healthy profit - just don't ever let yourself go IP thro lack of attention!!.

my 2 bucks, but one that has held me accountable to good discipline (by proxy) and lower losses for quite some time.

[edit] as an aside, i very often *allow* BA guardian to override my manual position, if it's gone into a negative balance by more than i feel the trade can ride. emotionally, i'm detached and just move on (only because i've set a tight green/red exit position). not saying i'm *all growed up* BUT, this process has a funny way of making you focus on the market better and therefore affords you the opportunity to pre-determine if you're entering a sure bet or an edge case.

[Crazyskier]

As Jimbit says, ALWAYS take the hit and green up at xxx seconds. The countless times I stop my automation to go in play to try to avoid a small red and then end up with a MUCH larger red more than outweigh the times I get green.

Sometimes I do manage a green at least in theory but the odds are fluctuating so rapidly that I end up with a red due to some of the green up bets remaining unmatched.

In short - don't do it! EVER.

[bennyboy351]

with respect how can you get caught inplay?

it really is quite difficult to do that these days, there really is no need or any real excuse for doing so (most of the time) if you really dont wish to.

Not if you've got a poxy Internet speed like mine it isn't! LOL

[PingVeno]

Yes.

What is fantastic is you have noticed an error.
If you keep monitoring errors and create a set of your own rules, you will be able to practise these and eventually eliminate simple errors.

This is what I've been doing. Since jumping in the deep end it's helped a lot to write down things to avoid and implementing them, as it helps sets boundaries such as the point of no return. (But saying this, I regularly break them and shout at myself for doing so)

[SeaHorseRacing]

Yes.

What is fantastic is you have noticed an error.
If you keep monitoring errors and create a set of your own rules, you will be able to practise these and eventually eliminate simple errors.

This is what I've been doing. Since jumping in the deep end it's helped a lot to write down things to avoid and implementing them, as it helps sets boundaries such as the point of no return. (But saying this, I regularly break them and shout at myself for doing so)

For now try and keep a list of rules small as it is impossible to learn them all at the same time. Lets say you have 10 rules to learn. For now to help you just write 3 of them on a card and read them before and after every trade. Once the habit is their add the other rules and so on.

[PingVeno]

Yes.

What is fantastic is you have noticed an error.
If you keep monitoring errors and create a set of your own rules, you will be able to practise these and eventually eliminate simple errors.

This is what I've been doing. Since jumping in the deep end it's helped a lot to write down things to avoid and implementing them, as it helps sets boundaries such as the point of no return. (But saying this, I regularly break them and shout at myself for doing so)

For now try and keep a list of rules small as it is impossible to learn them all at the same time. Lets say you have 10 rules to learn. For now to help you just write 3 of them on a card and read them before and after every trade. Once the habit is their add the other rules and so on.

Good tip, thanks. I've started pre-race trading only. Is there a way to stop me from trading during the race, like a setting or something?

[SeaHorseRacing]

There is automation you can use to do wonderful things, I am not the right guy to ask as I don't really use automation...

Personally it's a case of how much you want it. It really is tough to eradicate poor/silly mistakes but for me I think getting hit by them helps you learn. Eventually your be like I've had enough.
For me I have different messages all round my house. One above kitchen sink for when I get a drink. Above the toilet for a pee. The other side of the wall when a number 2.
In the cupboard when I grab a snack. Just keep respecting what not to do or how to deal with a situation. Again depends how bad you want it but it's help me.
If you do use something to stop you, my advice would be still practice and aim to remove these bad habits regardless. Trading successfully is an act of full self control.

[ShaunWhite]

Good tip, thanks. I've started pre-race trading only. Is there a way to stop me from trading during the race, like a setting or something?

If you're going in play to avoid a loss...

Automation etc will force you to close out but the real answer lies in doing it yourself. I'd hate my system to override my view on what's going on, especially when one won't go in the stalls and another is running around the car park. NH racing is a bit different if they go down early, line up well, the starter is keen and his pocket watch is steamed up. Automation has it's pros and cons.

You do need to see each trade as part of a bigger picture :
Keep a market by market graph of your balance, you'll learn that when you were 'good' and took quite a big hit it makes a tiny dip in your graph...and when you're 'bad' and lose a lot in play it makes a whacking great big hole in it. Evenually you'll realise that the loss you were looking at isn't actually much at all, and you won't be so wedded to the idea of fixing it there and then.

From that graph you can make a graph showing the frequency of different sizes of wins and losses....most will be in the middle and you'll see there are some rare big wins...and there'll be the odd big loss too. At that moment in time when you're desperate not to take a big loss, remember that this is just one of those rare big losses. They're going to happen like it or not.

It's also amazing how often a big loss can be followed by a big win on the next race sometimes it's just how the markets are that day.

...and if you're doing it accidentally, turn up the volume on the BA audible warnings and you'll here Peter warning you it's about to start.

[ShaunWhite]

...mabye BA needs a 'training mode'.
Each time a race starts while you have an open position it could play increasingly abusive insults from Peter at maximum volume.

Everyone talks about going in-play 'accidentally' and it's usually when they're trying to avoid a loss. But surely it's mathmatically even more galling if you're holding out for more and more profit...then bang! They're off and it's gone!

But people don't seem to do that as much, and there's a lot a psychology books written about why. You'll take disproportionate risks to avoid pain but not to increase pleasure.

I partly blame the way the numbers change from red to green, if that colour change happened at 'acceptable loss' I wonder how much it would affect the psychology of the situation.

...sorry if I've dragged this thread off topic with my ramblings

[andyrich666]

Pictures have changed me, so now when it is ATR I usually wait for the horse one before the last to be filled or the change of commentary, as there is about a 8 sec delay..but sometimes they don't pan to these all the time so you need to be careful with ATR it is usually 3 second delay if that and as soon as they change commentator or you see the flag is up then thats it.