Point of view from Australia

[newaustralian]

If you are reading this posting, you are a gambler like me. You make a bet that is covered by a person with the opposite view and therefore if you are correct you win and the other person does not or if the other person wins you do not. It is a simply at that. Making winning bets is easy and exciting but to make sufficient to be in front over a period is rather difficult. I intend to make three posts outlining my approach that at this stage appears to be successful. As it will make not different to my outcome I am will to share my views. Many will disagree with my views and that is fine and your comments are welcome however I hope these posting will make people think about their approach to trying to win. Finally, I would like to say that 12 days ago I had $2607 in my account, today it is $3899. My daily results were $270, $161, $66, $104, -$60, -$17, $99, $34, $216, $171 and $247 yesterday. See you on the next posting. As an australina I am using $A

[newaustralian]

Following on from my previous post your aims and money management must be set in stone. Emotion must not be any part of your strategy. Each bet is independent and your action should not be influenced by a previous outcome. My aim is to make 1.17% per day on my available capital. By compounding my winnings in 2 months my capital – assuming I am successful – will double. In this post, I will assume an initial balance of $1000. Therefore, the amount I aim to win on day one is about $12. As I said previously if all goes well my capital after 2 months would be $2000. Therefore, my aim would be to win $23 on the first day of the third month. If we dream, after 4 month the amount will be $4000, with $8000 being my capital after 6 months. Therefore, on the 7th month my aim would start at $93 per day. However, a lose bet happens and it is important not to be wiped out so I have firm restrictions. I have unbreakable rules as follows: ONE: aim with any bet to win only a quarter of the daily aimed amount. EG if the aim is $23 my bets would be to win about $6.00, if the aim was $40, my bet would be to win $10. I must admit when the daily aim got over $100 I reduced the amount to win on each to 1/6th of the daily aim. TWO as I usually lay rather than bet, the amount at risk on any lay is no more than 10% of my available capital. If my capital was $2000 I would not be willing to lay with a liability greater than $200. This is essential and fixed, never to be broken. In summary never try to win more than ¼ of your daily aim on any one wager and never risk more the 10% of your capital. Today I had included in my activities 3 Fabulous situation, Greyhounds 6 started, but in my opinion only three could be placed so was possible to bet for a place the 2nd and 3rd fav . Result the selections were place so a good return. Second horses - only three were short all other over 15/1 so I dutched them - result an outsider won therefore I was down . The third was sure not to win so it was a great lay. Thanks for the rulles above when it won I only lost 10% of my capital. Todays results - negative 4% of Capital. Talk about selection next time

[newaustralian]

Having got the money management in place it must be assumed that the odds at the start of the race indicate the chance of a horse winning. Eg even means the horse has a 50% chance of winning, on the other hand 10.00 means the chance of winning is about 10%. As a person who doesn’t follow form I must assume the odds available are a summation of all the information available – correct or incorrect. Secondly the quality of the jockey can be determined and thirdly the results of the previous 3 or 4 runs. Using observation only I have found that horse returning from a break are bad lay bets as their true form is unknown. Secondly, horses with odd 10.00 or less win most races and thirdly good jockeys also win most races. Therefore, using the above three observations I lay using the money management rules previously outlined the first horse with odds greater than 10.00, not resuming and being ridden by an out of form jockey or not one of the top jockeys. The average odds I get is 14.00 (chance winning 7%). I have found in Australia I get a success rate of 97% with a profit with an even stake, but a terrific return by compounding my winnings. I do not lay on every race since I have found some races and race courses give better returns. The race and race course selection, although used is not firm enough to write about how it is used just at this stage. Hope you enjoyed my ramblings. Betting is fun, but winning makes it better.

[newaustralian]

Morning. When I wrote my first post 7 days ago my balance was $3899, today it is $4437 - an increase of just over $500. Just maybe my approach could work over the long term - fingers crossed

[Bluesky]

I don't want to worry you but betting forums are littered with posts very similar to this one. People think they have found a great way of making money ie. laying horses over 10. They can go on really long winning runs, increasing stake size as they go, it seems so easy.

Then all of a sudden two or three losing trades in a row can wipe out weeks or even months of profit, this can be heart breaking to deal with. Perhaps you might be onto something different in which case good luck to you, but be very very carful you don't end up like all the others who have been down this route.

[bennyboy351]

I don't want to worry you but betting forums are littered with posts very similar to this one. People think they have found a great way of making money ie. laying horses over 10. They can go on really long winning runs, increasing stake size as they go, it seems so easy.

Then all of a sudden two or three losing trades in a row can wipe out weeks or even months of profit, this can be heart breaking to deal with. Perhaps you might be onto something different in which case good luck to you, but be very very carful you don't end up like all the others who have been down this route.

Been there - done that! LOL

[newaustralian]

Thanks for the comments - The essential part is the money management and emotions side of the exercise. Only time will tell but with firm money management a selction process has a chance. My target is to $5000 by Dec 1 ($2000 to $5000 in 2 months) with $7000 by 1 January. If it fails I will be the first to put his hand up and tell the forum of the failure. Thanks again - any suggest will be accepted as most forum members main aim is to consistently make a profit.

[marko236]

Hi NEW AUSTRALIAN,

Yes you can make money betting on Betfair, good luck please keep us posted, a few screen shots of your p@l would be nice.

[newaustralian]

Great news - i had two lay bets in a row that lost BUT as I was using my money management I was not wiped out - only lost 3 days of wins. May have trouble making $5000 by Dec 1 now but the next 10 days will tell

[newaustralian]

Achieved my aim. In summary – Limit the amount to win on each transaction and limit the amount at risk (note I lay most times). Both amounts are determined as a percentage of the account balance. In two months, my $2000 initial balance is now $5000. As I deal with data and numbers that is just over 2% per day.
In selecting a bet(s) I have only data as a guide. Accepting the best, I can work with is the Betfair odds we all know the estimated chance of a 10/1 horse in 10%. We also know that favs win about 30% of races, also 1,2,3, favs win nearly 60% races. We all know that good jockeys win most races. We all know the saying “if wet, do not bet”. I also wish to add my overriding rules, 1. Never and I stress never, lay a horse that has not had at least two recent runs and 2. Determine your rules, remove the emotion in betting and remember do not bet unless you think you have a high chance of winning. A day is full of races just wait for the right race for you.
And finally, good selection is necessary BUT a money management system is essential. Hope you enjoyed my few postings. Betting is exciting, however seeing your balance increasing is fantastic

[newaustralian]

Morning. Looking at my last 50 bets. Dutching 6 lost one – overall loss, bet for place – 3 overall lost, laying 41 bets – all winners. Does that tell me something? Yes.

Money management system is working fine BUT I am having trouble increasing my bet size as indicated by the method. Now my balance is over $5000 my bet restrictions should be max loss $500 with my max bet (win) being $19. I am still at $16 and $400. Emotion (fear of loss is becoming part of my bets even though past indicated not necessary). Will keep you posted

[macawboy]

Hi newaustralian
Glad you are doing well, but untill you have a very large sample size with your strategy,i would think twice about upping your stakes.
I come from a poker background where i could grind out small profits by multi tabling small stakes poker.
Dont play any more because i decided it was just not worth the time and effort invested for such a small reward.
What i did learn though was the word Variance(measure of uncertainty) and trust me variance as no boundaries .
When variance kicks in and you go on a downswing (poker term for losing streak) just hope you can ride it out and don't go on tilt.

[newaustralian]

Thanks for your message - As a poker player you play the odds firstly and then manage your money. I have been Investing ( gambling) for years along the lines outline above. I believe that money management is the key to success so opened a second account to prove my point. hopefully somebody will decide that management of money is the essential part of gambling. In Australia the last race of a meeting is referred to as "Get out stakes". We have betting shops in Australia and it breaks my heart seeing the gamblers RUN from one bet to another having little knowedge of what they bet. Compounding my profits as indicated above I have for many years converted each $1000 I place in my account each 1 jan to over $8000 by Christmas. This year each $1000 will be by Xmas over $10000. Thanks again for your email. As I said before I simple play the odds with a good money management. If you would like I will take about some of selection methods.

[newaustralian]

Morning - Christmas is here - sunny in Australia. Time to reflect - I will acheive making 1.0117 % daily - on my comulative balance - in 3 months balance for $2000 will be just over $6000. However it could have been better if I have not broken my money management system. Firstly in a race of 7, the top three selection on Betfair were all about 3.5 with the other all over 15.00. fantastic dutching I thought so broke my rule and dutched to win about $75.00 - You guess a lose. Secondly I was going to a bbq so had a last lay. The horse had no chance of winnintg so I placed a lay 3 times greater than usual - another lose. In the past three months my only lose outside my money management system are the above. I have had a few negative results but overall successful. New Years resolution for ian RULE for me - Keep to the management system. Merry Christmas and the best betting NEW YEAR ever. Thanks for you online friendship.

[bennyboy351]

Achieved my aim. In summary – Limit the amount to win on each transaction and limit the amount at risk (note I lay most times). Both amounts are determined as a percentage of the account balance. In two months, my $2000 initial balance is now $5000. As I deal with data and numbers that is just over 2% per day.
In selecting a bet(s) I have only data as a guide. Accepting the best, I can work with is the Betfair odds we all know the estimated chance of a 10/1 horse in 10%. We also know that favs win about 30% of races, also 1,2,3, favs win nearly 60% races. We all know that good jockeys win most races. We all know the saying “if wet, do not bet”. I also wish to add my overriding rules, 1. Never and I stress never, lay a horse that has not had at least two recent runs and 2. Determine your rules, remove the emotion in betting and remember do not bet unless you think you have a high chance of winning. A day is full of races just wait for the right race for you.
And finally, good selection is necessary BUT a money management system is essential. Hope you enjoyed my few postings. Betting is exciting, however seeing your balance increasing is fantastic

Having been 'Bent over' more times than I care to remember, I can see the logic of your statements - now, if only I can remove ALL emotion from my trading........