Does this graph scare you off?

The sport of kings.
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workpeter
Posts: 165
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:29 pm

My methodology typically breaks down when i see graphs like this and now i avoid.
The pressure on both sides is incredibly and its challenging to define which way it will swing.

Whats your experience?
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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

workpeter wrote:My methodology typically breaks down when i see graphs like this and now i avoid.
The pressure on both sides is incredibly and its challenging to define which way it will swing.

Whats your experience?
IMO these types of markets can be hard to trade as you anticipate a swing trade. I suffered from making consistent errors on this type of market. If you see this my advice would be sit on your hands and watch it. If you see large chunks of money and it seems to stay back in the range trade the bottom or tops of the range for a few ticks. Sometimes this type of market will just end a loser for me. Typical Monday chart.
They do and can break out into nice trades. Sit and watch it.
You may also find they move in one direction just before post time. So if your trading the range be careful in the last minute or so.

This is my view.

How I identify

If I identify a swing market and I see one like that.
I will just sit and watch for a good few minutes. If I see it looks like it's moving in one direction I will wait for real confirmation as you find it bounces out of the range and the straight back.

If you do want to swing trade this market and just are unsure never chase the price. If you think it will go up get in on the bottom of the range and same for reverse this way you can have a tight stop loss and if it is ranging it will likely come back to you to scratch.

This is my view anyway. Damn I do hate those sometimes. It certainly is a patients and focus tester.

Good Luck
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

A big trade looks like it went through (£30k) which was a lot bigger than all the other ones I can see and nothing seems to have happened to the price. Would this suggest this would be a good market to scalp (I don't know the answer to this but hopefully someone on here will).
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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Bluesky wrote:A big trade looks like it went through (£30k) which was a lot bigger than all the other ones I can see and nothing seems to have happened to the price. Would this suggest this would be a good market to scalp (I don't know the answer to this but hopefully someone on here will).
The thing with this type of market is if big money hits and it bounces back in the range you can tell it's likely to stay in the range. Personally I will never scalp this market because they can move very quickly. Trade in the range for a couple tick swings

Hint. When you see this market and your expecting a swing check the horses form. What you will normally see is the market is a maidens/nhf etc the horses have a bit of form.
If the horses have already had a couple of races this will immediately tell you the price is right and its not likely to go.

For example if the runner has a bit of form it probably will stay ranging. Again not an exact science but usually a race with lots of debutants will tell you it's going to swing in one direction.

I've spent a lot of time trying to perfect these races. They are very hard and you can trade them with practice.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Do not be fooled by the conditional and seller races.

Those types of races at times look very similar and I find they dont move a whole bunch either.

Again, not exact science and you need to be focused. Never trade inside the range blind. Always stay alert becuase they can break out. Monitoring the other runners, tv pictures and money will stop you from getting caught out of an unexpected swing.
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workpeter
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See at the very end it starter to climb? It ended up crashing down right before the off :shock:
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