Money Management

[lewcla]

Hi guys, cracking resource this forum

If anybody is able to point me in the right direction, I'd be most grateful of any input.

I have 3 football strategies (WIN, STRONG and DRAW).
The stats are as follows:

Win Strike Rate 56.72%
Strong Strike Rate 88.24%
Draw Strike Rate 52.16%

Prices are minimum breakeven and (actual averaged):

Win 1.76 (1.88)
Strong 1.13 (2.01)
Draw 1.92 (3.41)

I'm happy that I have an edge in each strategy, but I'm still unsure about how to maximise my stakes - eg flat 1% per trade just doesn't feel right, considering the 'strong' and 'draw' strategies clearly have a significant edge over the 'win'.

Perhaps 1% per 'win' trade, and then 3% per 'strong' and 'draw' trade.........but even then I'm just plucking numbers out of thin air.

With a bank of £xxxx, how does one apportion stakes to each strategy, to maximise profits?

Cheers and best wishes,
Lewis (lewcla)

[marksmeets302]

Have a look at the kelly criterion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

There's a whole wonderful world behind this.

[LeTiss]

You're right to ask the question - money management is one of the prime areas for people's failure in this game, as losses become eye watering, and that in turn leads to the catastrophic mistake of chasing losers or leaving trades to go 'In Play'

[lewcla]

Thanks gents, appreciate the notes.
Fractional Kelly seems to be the optimum way to go.

I guess it's quite hard to manage, with a variable strike rate and Odds offered.

Best,
Lewis

[marksmeets302]

my guess is you'll max out very quickly. The amount of money you can put through on most betfair markets is very limited. At least you'll know now how to reach that saturation point the quickest way!

One of the best things Kelly teaches you is not to overbet; it is far more destructive than betting too little. Another one is that optimal betting means you'll spend most of the time in horrible drawdowns. For me that was totally counter-intuitive.

[convoysur-2]

Hi LADS .
Anyone know where i can get a kelly criterion LAY spreadsheet ? i know the staking machine but i dont want to log on and load files every time i want to look at something,
Or can anyone make one ? ill pay of course,
Thanks in advance for reply,
Marc

[spreadbetting]

Just do a google search, the calculation is quite simple so I'd have thought they'd be loads of free excel sheets out there, assessing your 'edge' is the hard part.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

[convoysur-2]

Just do a google search, the calculation is quite simple so I'd have thought they'd be loads of free excel sheets out there, assessing your 'edge' is the hard part.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

I have the edge is 4.48% ,,strike rate is 94.4% archie score is 11.8,,all the hard work is done,
there are plenty of kelly things online about formulas .but its the lay version im after and cant get it.even if someone gave me the formula i couldent make the sheet,im only at basic excel .ive never done formulas,
Marc

[Anna List]

Just do a google search, the calculation is quite simple so I'd have thought they'd be loads of free excel sheets out there, assessing your 'edge' is the hard part.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

I have the edge is 4.48% ,,strike rate is 94.4% archie score is 11.8,,all the hard work is done,
there are plenty of kelly things online about formulas .but its the lay version im after and cant get it.even if someone gave me the formula i couldent make the sheet,im only at basic excel .ive never done formulas,
Marc

Marc

I have developed a money management system over a period of 14 years.

It's real easy to follow, once you understand the basic logic behind it. I guess that you could even modify it to meet the needs of you and your system/method. It is well supported by logic, testing over many a year and common sense.

PM me if interested.

[convoysur-2]

Hi Anna list,
Please send me PM ,im trying to pm you but it wont send,i dont know why,
Thanks
Marc

[Anna List]

Hi Anna list,
Please send me PM ,im trying to pm you but it wont send,i dont know why,
Thanks
Marc

Hi Marc

Just PMd you with my email address.

Anna

[jung]

Hi Anna list,
Please send me PM ,im trying to pm you but it wont send,i dont know why,
Thanks
Marc

Hi Marc

Just PMd you with my email address.

Anna

Hello Anna,

Would you mind sending it to me too?

[marksmeets302]

Anna List has left the building