The Importance of Luck

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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2155
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Quick but worrying post during the festive period, but thought some of you lads might be interested in this.

How many of you would kill for a guaranteed system? Tried, tested, verified.

Risk/reward = 1:1
Winrate = 55%

Congratulations, you are now part of the 9%, with an ATM in your bedroom.

However, statistically if I give 50 people my strategy, nearly half of you will be net down after 100 trades. Scary thought :? Us traders rely on luck more than we'd like - especially those that are using strategies with slim edges.

If you'd like to test various strategies: http://www.equitycurvesimulator.com/

Merry xmas :D
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jimibt
Posts: 4200
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

nice one simon - have a great xmas and a prosperous 2017
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2155
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

& you jim ;) lets just hope we're the purple line & the ones cleaning up!
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jimibt
Posts: 4200
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:& you jim ;) lets just hope we're the purple line & the ones cleaning up!
just reminded me, this office is a freakin mess here. time to get the dusters out... and sure, lets trip the purple fantastic next year
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macawboy
Posts: 61
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:18 am

Thanks for sharing Simon.
I used a simulator for calculating variance when playing poker and it really brings home the amount of samples required before you know for certain that you have an edge.
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