Guys, just seeking some advice really. I've been doing some Back 2 Lay bets and currently have the offset at 30 ticks. I've come frustratingly close to collecting the Lay side on a few occasions but the price didn't quite get there, so im now thinking shall i reduce the tick amount to 15 to try and help build my bank? Two or three loser on a day and its annoying trying to win that back, luckily i didnt over react and panic trade. I'm only doing it for £10 stakes but it all adds up.
Any advice will be gratefully received.
Dave
Advice on the number of ticks for B2L
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SeaHorseRacing
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Firt before anyone helps. Please inform us if this is manual or automation trading.Dasmith21 wrote:Guys, just seeking some advice really. I've been doing some Back 2 Lay bets and currently have the offset at 30 ticks. I've come frustratingly close to collecting the Lay side on a few occasions but the price didn't quite get there, so im now thinking shall i reduce the tick amount to 15 to try and help build my bank? Two or three loser on a day and its annoying trying to win that back, luckily i didnt over react and panic trade. I'm only doing it for £10 stakes but it all adds up.
Any advice will be gratefully received.
Dave
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Ok.Dasmith21 wrote:Ive done both, ive got an auto bot from the website that does 30 ticks. Ive also done it manually too and choosing offset and greening by 30 on global settings.
Are you backing ti lay before the off? What I mean is; are you backing a horse based on what is suppose to happen or are you backing as the event goes inplay.
Using a gerneric 30 tick offset or even 15 probably wont work and the reason for this based on prices.
If your on a back to lay horse that is priced say 1.5 it may not move 30 ticks right? And the same applies if the price was 250.
What type of races? Novices hurdle/chases races are brilliant for back to lays. As an in experinced horse at the back will struggle.
May I suggest if your going to pre define how many ticks profit you want that you try and find a back to lay strategy for each type of markets.
For example a back to lay on a 5f race will behave differently to a 3m chase.
Have alook at the going too.
Generally how I back to lay is: If i see a horse lining up that has a clear lead I look to make a few ticks not 15 or 30. Maybe 5, depends how everything is intereacting and im pretty much out within a few secs and additionally I red out even before the off sometimes.
Hope this helps you move forward.
Best of luck.
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SeaHorseRacing
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One piece of extra advice....
If your backing them all for a £10. and lets say your stopping out for a loss of -10 ticks.
How much profit are you losing??
See you could have 5 winning back to lays... but the back to lay at odds of 50 is your only loser on the day: when you have taking your controlled loss of -10 ticks it has wiped out your profit for the day.
Think about it. Dont back everything for £10 right?? Or do you?
Ask yourself that quetion above. You could potentially stil use a 30 tick offset and only hit one a day and have 5 losing trades a day and still make a profit this way.
If your backing them all for a £10. and lets say your stopping out for a loss of -10 ticks.
How much profit are you losing??
See you could have 5 winning back to lays... but the back to lay at odds of 50 is your only loser on the day: when you have taking your controlled loss of -10 ticks it has wiped out your profit for the day.
Think about it. Dont back everything for £10 right?? Or do you?
Ask yourself that quetion above. You could potentially stil use a 30 tick offset and only hit one a day and have 5 losing trades a day and still make a profit this way.
Thanks for your prompt reply, plenty to get my head around. I usually tend to look on ATR website for their pace chart and correlate that with any horse that has been positively backed in the race, this is all done pre off. I then do a £10 B2L either in automation mode or manually by the global settings.
I havent added any stop losses to the automation, is that recommended? With regards to the races, ive mainly done the all weather flat races as i consider that the pace chart is more atune to flat races than NH. If i have done any jump races, ive excluded any 3mile races as they tend to get strung out in running. I could be totally wrong of course.
If anyone has any other suggestions i'd appreciate their comments.
Dave
I havent added any stop losses to the automation, is that recommended? With regards to the races, ive mainly done the all weather flat races as i consider that the pace chart is more atune to flat races than NH. If i have done any jump races, ive excluded any 3mile races as they tend to get strung out in running. I could be totally wrong of course.
If anyone has any other suggestions i'd appreciate their comments.
Dave
Front runners make good B2L candidates, there is a number of sites out there to identify these including this handy no frills one
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/0 ... ree-trial/
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/0 ... ree-trial/
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
patternform.co.ukDasmith21 wrote:Thanks for your prompt reply, plenty to get my head around. I usually tend to look on ATR website for their pace chart and correlate that with any horse that has been positively backed in the race, this is all done pre off. I then do a £10 B2L either in automation mode or manually by the global settings.
I havent added any stop losses to the automation, is that recommended? With regards to the races, ive mainly done the all weather flat races as i consider that the pace chart is more atune to flat races than NH. If i have done any jump races, ive excluded any 3mile races as they tend to get strung out in running. I could be totally wrong of course.
If anyone has any other suggestions i'd appreciate their comments.
Dave
Sign up its free. Hope this link doesnt get deleted or seen as advertisement its a free site.
I cant really comment with Automation as its not quite my bag.
The statistics claim that 40% of Flat races are truly run (evenly)
Whilst National Hut races are around 20%.
So with than in mind you would technically think that 3m chases should throw up more opportunitys.
I am no expert on back to lays but what I would recommend is to look up and search on your staking plan, types of races and the odds your trading on. With that build a strategies for each. They may all be very similar.
Not all races will produce back to lays.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10526
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You select "Positively backed" horses, why's that?Dasmith21 wrote: I usually tend to look on ATR website for their pace chart and correlate that with any horse that has been positively backed in the race, this is all done pre off.
Dave
It sounds like you're maybe not getting much value on your initial Back? I'd prefer to corrolate pace notes with some of those exposed, fit looking, drifts-for-no-reason horses you see every day.
The better the "in" price the easier it is to get the "out" price once the market has been taken over by IP traders who generally know what a good horse looks like, unlike the vast majority of the pre-race punters do (myself included).
I agree with SHR, if I ever B2L (rarely) I try and get it done within the first furlong. I personally don't do it for anything starting in a stall, I've had too many who have a Hamlet moment and won't come out of the damn thing
And I don't really want them all starting in a nice line. I'd rather see who's already got their nose over the start line and who's at the back still playing with their goggles.
I've almost gave up L2B NH horses several furlongs before crossline in novice, maiden, non-hcap races no longer than 2m3f and at one point decided to B2L them instead. And it worked out! Turned my reds in greens. I take 20 ticks. Hardest thing for me is to avoid making cascade of back bets chasing falling price.
The reason i back positively backed horses is because i feel there is more a chance of them winning or running well, this enabling my lay bet to get matched.ShaunWhite wrote: You select "Positively backed" horses, why's that?
It sounds like you're maybe not getting much value on your initial Back? I'd prefer to corrolate pace notes with some of those exposed, fit looking, drifts-for-no-reason horses you see every day.
Dave
Ive never really been convinced by back to lay as a long term strategy. You see plenty of screenshots online showing successful back to lay trades, though you rarely see the results in any context.
Ive always thought of back to lay as horse racings equivalent of 'lay the draw'.
Obviously there will be people who do make it pay long term, though i would bet that the value is in the back side of the bet rather than the lay.
I imagine that most people who do make it pay would be just as profitable, or probably more profitable if they just did a straight back on the selection and didnt bother with the lay.
Finding a lone front runner used to be a popular winner finding angle long before betting in running and exchanges were invented.
The value would most likely be in the back side of the trade, and the lay side is just giving value away to those on course and with fast pics.
In short, if you want to be more profitable you need to concentrate on your selections and backing them at the right price, moving your closing lay up or down 10 or 20 ticks probably wont make any difference to your overall profitability if your selections are poor value to start with.
Ive always thought of back to lay as horse racings equivalent of 'lay the draw'.
Obviously there will be people who do make it pay long term, though i would bet that the value is in the back side of the bet rather than the lay.
I imagine that most people who do make it pay would be just as profitable, or probably more profitable if they just did a straight back on the selection and didnt bother with the lay.
Finding a lone front runner used to be a popular winner finding angle long before betting in running and exchanges were invented.
The value would most likely be in the back side of the trade, and the lay side is just giving value away to those on course and with fast pics.
In short, if you want to be more profitable you need to concentrate on your selections and backing them at the right price, moving your closing lay up or down 10 or 20 ticks probably wont make any difference to your overall profitability if your selections are poor value to start with.
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SeaHorseRacing
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What really frustrates me with back to lay strategies is people seem to think that looking at a lone front runner is the key to making it work.
Now although finding front runners are easy. Looking at patternform you can probably find one front runner a day.
What people seem to forget is there is usually a trainer advisesing a little person who steers the horse.
Just looking at pace figures are honestly a waste of time. Especially those who pay for them just like paceform. It doesnt work!
Yes it does pick the pace of the race but ony extreme casses. Its easy to spot a race with a serious front runner who almost always leads every race but 95% races do not exibit those characteristics.
You might aswell wait for the race to start and back the leader then predetermine the front runner.
I have experience in the business and I know of trainers that will ask to put a horse at the back of the pack because theres three front runners.. then it appears nearly all of the trainers have done that.. So many variables.
Additionally here is one stat that most people wont believe.
Find a hold up horse with a good turn of foot- they win slow races! not fast races everybody tells you like experts- they win slow races.
Small field no pace- back the hold up horse if its done it before- I know im talking about betting but the whole point is.
If you want to make real money on back to lays dont just follow paceform or patternform its a waste of money.
If you using it to enhance your pre race trading for a bit of extra profit great. if you want to make decent money do your research.
These subscription services are nothing but a guy who has web scraped an idea and is selling it.
On saturday the 2.40 Kempton the commentator said twice. Theres bolting along a real strong gallop and although it did look fast to be fair- It wasnt not. It was a very slowly run race- this is why doing your own research will make you money because most people are wrong even the so called "experts"
Now although finding front runners are easy. Looking at patternform you can probably find one front runner a day.
What people seem to forget is there is usually a trainer advisesing a little person who steers the horse.
Just looking at pace figures are honestly a waste of time. Especially those who pay for them just like paceform. It doesnt work!
Yes it does pick the pace of the race but ony extreme casses. Its easy to spot a race with a serious front runner who almost always leads every race but 95% races do not exibit those characteristics.
You might aswell wait for the race to start and back the leader then predetermine the front runner.
I have experience in the business and I know of trainers that will ask to put a horse at the back of the pack because theres three front runners.. then it appears nearly all of the trainers have done that.. So many variables.
Additionally here is one stat that most people wont believe.
Find a hold up horse with a good turn of foot- they win slow races! not fast races everybody tells you like experts- they win slow races.
Small field no pace- back the hold up horse if its done it before- I know im talking about betting but the whole point is.
If you want to make real money on back to lays dont just follow paceform or patternform its a waste of money.
If you using it to enhance your pre race trading for a bit of extra profit great. if you want to make decent money do your research.
These subscription services are nothing but a guy who has web scraped an idea and is selling it.
On saturday the 2.40 Kempton the commentator said twice. Theres bolting along a real strong gallop and although it did look fast to be fair- It wasnt not. It was a very slowly run race- this is why doing your own research will make you money because most people are wrong even the so called "experts"
SHR - I enjoy reading your posts, you write some interesting stuff but to be fair mate you do come out with some bold statements for somebody who is yet to become profitable in this game
Anybody who is looking at B2L, Front runners etc.. It does work if you are selective and execute the trades well. This, like anything, comes with experience. Tiny stakes to start and never risk more than you can afford
B2L Front runners works well for me from the stalls but not so well over jumps so I use it as a seasonal thing. Compared to the pre race stuff that i do the profits are reletively small per B2L but consistant and top up the PnL. Every little counts
And sites like the one recommended by Peter, which is Pacecards, are excellent for finding the information that is needed.
But you need to take the correct information from it and put in the hours of practise
Anybody who is looking at B2L, Front runners etc.. It does work if you are selective and execute the trades well. This, like anything, comes with experience. Tiny stakes to start and never risk more than you can afford
B2L Front runners works well for me from the stalls but not so well over jumps so I use it as a seasonal thing. Compared to the pre race stuff that i do the profits are reletively small per B2L but consistant and top up the PnL. Every little counts
And sites like the one recommended by Peter, which is Pacecards, are excellent for finding the information that is needed.
But you need to take the correct information from it and put in the hours of practise
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
Hi Dasmith21,
There's a couple of ways to work out your best tick margin for B2L, your manual ones, and your automated ones.
Automation:
For automated ones, you could have a bunch of rules to back the horse and lay it for a roughly equal profit depending on it's price range. Say for example, rule 1 is 10 seconds before the off, back your nominated horse for a tenner and offset by 22 ticks with greening with conditions that the fixed price is between 2.5-3.5, number of unmatched bets is 0, race not in play etc. If your horse is at the minimum of the range 2.5, then 22 ticks below will put your offset in at 2.06, giving you 2.03 profit after 5% commission. If your horse is at the upper end, say 3.45 then 22 ticks offset will have your lay at 2.74 giving a profit of 2.46 so you've a minimum profit of 2 quid.
Rule 2 is the same as Rule 1, but your price range changes from 2.5-3.5 to 3.5-4.5 and your offset tick size changes to from 22 ticks to 16 ticks. 3.5 will offset to 2.88 to give the minimum 2 quid profit, 4.5 will offset to 3.45 giving 2.89 profit.
Rinse and repeat until you've all the odds ranges you want covered. Once you get above odds of 30 then a 5 tick offset will give a minimum 2 quid profit on a tenner staked.
Manual:
Probably more risky as emotion becomes involved. Mankind has an inherent nature to gamble I've read before. In a nutshell, when we were living in caves and had knocked 2 apples out of the tree with stones, we wouldn't be happy with that because we don't know where or when the next food is coming. So we keep trying for the 3rd and it might even bring a 4th with it....oh here's a bear, leg chewed off and apples gone! Could have settled for the 2 apples but wanted more. Same with the 2 quid becoming 3 or possibly 4, only the bear in this case is your horse getting bumped on the bend, a bad jump, jockey losing his whip etc.
An advantage of manual is watching the horses before the start in a NH race, if your one looks a bit jumpy and on tippy toes pushing towards the front, there's a good chance it'll want to be the pack leader and shoot to the front whether the jockey wants to or not. AW and flat is a lot more unpredictable before the start. If a horse loads easy, he could be a good horse, or he might be uninterested and going through the paces. If a horse is jumpy and it takes 5 men to load him into the stalls, he could come out of the stalls like a bullet, or he could smash his head rearing up in the stalls trying to throw the jockey off, and completely miss the start. Pretty much a 50/50 chance of either happening, so if you're looking for a 20% profit on a 50/50 chance, it's not gonna end well!
Another site for stats not mentioned yet is winningwarlock.com, they've a nice layout and it's pretty user friendly. A twitter user called @gbettle puts up some B2L suggestions sometimes, seems to get a good few right. Proform have an in-running option on their platform, but I think it's only available for the platinum subscription which is pretty pricey. You could probably make your own Excel spreadsheet of B2L opportunities with a scraper using the days markets and previous in-running lows from timeform, or just tender it out and some whizkid will do it in no time for very little money relative to a years Proform platinum subscription!
Also get to know a few jockeys styles, some are more laid back and some put the boot down. Robbie Dunne is one who springs to mind, he goes for the finish line as soon as the tape is up, go go go! If he's on a nag that's done little in it's career, but races near the front, he might be good for a few ticks.
Keep an eye on the big flat races too, if Aidan O'Brien/Richard Hannon has more than 1 in the race, then 1 is his big shot, the other(s) are going to make the pace and run like hell. They're all trained alongside each other and invariably someone will shit themselves and think the pacemaker has a good chance and back it at a low price, and that's where your lay is matched.
For Sundays racing, 3.20 Hereford, Way Of The World looks like a B2L to me. From ATR racecard pace tab he seems to be the most forward runner, last win was at the same track less than 2 weeks ago with the same jockey. Last 4 races writeups are "tracked leaders, tracked leaders, prominent, set very steady pace"
ATR and Timeform have Mondello as the fav, 1 place from 7 runs on similar expected going (Soft, heavy in places) I'll stick with my choice as B2L in that one, won't be trading anything though as I'm drinking this evening and tonight!
Drifted off topic a bit, but if it's 95% you knew and 5% you didn't think of, then it's worth posting
There's a couple of ways to work out your best tick margin for B2L, your manual ones, and your automated ones.
Automation:
For automated ones, you could have a bunch of rules to back the horse and lay it for a roughly equal profit depending on it's price range. Say for example, rule 1 is 10 seconds before the off, back your nominated horse for a tenner and offset by 22 ticks with greening with conditions that the fixed price is between 2.5-3.5, number of unmatched bets is 0, race not in play etc. If your horse is at the minimum of the range 2.5, then 22 ticks below will put your offset in at 2.06, giving you 2.03 profit after 5% commission. If your horse is at the upper end, say 3.45 then 22 ticks offset will have your lay at 2.74 giving a profit of 2.46 so you've a minimum profit of 2 quid.
Rule 2 is the same as Rule 1, but your price range changes from 2.5-3.5 to 3.5-4.5 and your offset tick size changes to from 22 ticks to 16 ticks. 3.5 will offset to 2.88 to give the minimum 2 quid profit, 4.5 will offset to 3.45 giving 2.89 profit.
Rinse and repeat until you've all the odds ranges you want covered. Once you get above odds of 30 then a 5 tick offset will give a minimum 2 quid profit on a tenner staked.
Manual:
Probably more risky as emotion becomes involved. Mankind has an inherent nature to gamble I've read before. In a nutshell, when we were living in caves and had knocked 2 apples out of the tree with stones, we wouldn't be happy with that because we don't know where or when the next food is coming. So we keep trying for the 3rd and it might even bring a 4th with it....oh here's a bear, leg chewed off and apples gone! Could have settled for the 2 apples but wanted more. Same with the 2 quid becoming 3 or possibly 4, only the bear in this case is your horse getting bumped on the bend, a bad jump, jockey losing his whip etc.
An advantage of manual is watching the horses before the start in a NH race, if your one looks a bit jumpy and on tippy toes pushing towards the front, there's a good chance it'll want to be the pack leader and shoot to the front whether the jockey wants to or not. AW and flat is a lot more unpredictable before the start. If a horse loads easy, he could be a good horse, or he might be uninterested and going through the paces. If a horse is jumpy and it takes 5 men to load him into the stalls, he could come out of the stalls like a bullet, or he could smash his head rearing up in the stalls trying to throw the jockey off, and completely miss the start. Pretty much a 50/50 chance of either happening, so if you're looking for a 20% profit on a 50/50 chance, it's not gonna end well!
Another site for stats not mentioned yet is winningwarlock.com, they've a nice layout and it's pretty user friendly. A twitter user called @gbettle puts up some B2L suggestions sometimes, seems to get a good few right. Proform have an in-running option on their platform, but I think it's only available for the platinum subscription which is pretty pricey. You could probably make your own Excel spreadsheet of B2L opportunities with a scraper using the days markets and previous in-running lows from timeform, or just tender it out and some whizkid will do it in no time for very little money relative to a years Proform platinum subscription!
Also get to know a few jockeys styles, some are more laid back and some put the boot down. Robbie Dunne is one who springs to mind, he goes for the finish line as soon as the tape is up, go go go! If he's on a nag that's done little in it's career, but races near the front, he might be good for a few ticks.
Keep an eye on the big flat races too, if Aidan O'Brien/Richard Hannon has more than 1 in the race, then 1 is his big shot, the other(s) are going to make the pace and run like hell. They're all trained alongside each other and invariably someone will shit themselves and think the pacemaker has a good chance and back it at a low price, and that's where your lay is matched.
For Sundays racing, 3.20 Hereford, Way Of The World looks like a B2L to me. From ATR racecard pace tab he seems to be the most forward runner, last win was at the same track less than 2 weeks ago with the same jockey. Last 4 races writeups are "tracked leaders, tracked leaders, prominent, set very steady pace"
ATR and Timeform have Mondello as the fav, 1 place from 7 runs on similar expected going (Soft, heavy in places) I'll stick with my choice as B2L in that one, won't be trading anything though as I'm drinking this evening and tonight!
Drifted off topic a bit, but if it's 95% you knew and 5% you didn't think of, then it's worth posting