Reading the markets more efficiently

[JollyGreen]

Just when you thought it was safe to enter the forum, JG pops up again!

I'll write this post and in a separate one I will do my best to explain what has been my life since October 2010. It's not a sob story!

I spend a lot of time working with new, novice, intermediate and experienced traders trying to help them move to the next step. There is a common approach I see in all levels and it is based on how they view the markets. Most, admittedly not all, have a eureka moment when I start to show them how they should be viewing them. This is just my honest and humble opinion, I am not suggesting it is the only way. What I will say is if you can start including this in your trading it should improve things. You may then integrate some of it into your method and improve from there.

I use KiSS, Keep it Simple Stupid! I also teach based on VARK, if you Google it you will get the information you require. It is very interesting and worth a read.

Most people learn in a visual style, the V in VARK! Therefore I try and create images for people to concentrate on. It isn't possible for me to describe the images now as there are many and it depends on the person. I will give an example of how the V method works.

We are all different ages so I will not offer a specific date from the past. Simply deduct 18 from your age and with the resulting year, try and remember what you did? There may be specific events which stand out but some may be lost. I have good news, they are never lost, you have just mislaid the location reference for you brain's filing system

You don't have to perform the next step unless you want to. I suggest you give it a go so you can start to convince yourself just how good your memory really is!

Find a photograph from that year. If you only have photographs from another year then use them, it still works. When you view that photo your brain will instantly find the memory reference number and you will recall lots of events. Also, a song playing on the radio can have a similar effect, the A in VARK but it is not so prevalent as the V method when you look at people as a whole.

So you can now understand that bad memory is actually a bad filing system and assuming your brain hasn't suffered a trauma, you are capable of it!

So on this subject of viewing things let me explain where a lot of people go wrong. Too many people tend to use intense focus on one indicator or signal. WOM, large orders queued on the ladder are a couple; I am sure you have your own.

Let's go back to the photo you have found. Imagine a highly magnified area of the image which basically displays nothing more than a lot of pixels/dots. If this was all you could see of the photo do you think it would help you recall the events associated with the photo? I would suggest the answer is a definite no!

So why not? The magnified image is displaying the same photo but it it is more intensely focused. Can you see, (please forgive the pun) what I mean now? Zooming in on one indicator (enter any one thing you intensely focus on) will distract you from seeing the whole picture. For picture replace it with market.

My advice. Step back and view the overall image more than you focus intensely on one area. I am not saying don't focus, I am saying use it to confirm something you have recognised in the overall view. Imagine that photo again, perhaps you want to zoom in to see a shirt logo, a car registration...you get the picture...bloody puns

Any feedback is welcomed, I will try and answer any questions.

JG

[Trader_Tom]

I'm currently in bed about to get a pre-trading nap so for now I will just say thanks for the interesting read : )

Good to have you back

[SeaHorseRacing]

Thanks JG.

My only wish is that you posted this about a year ago. Your bloody right! Its only the last 6 months I have been working on it.

And to say it is not easy!

What I find most challenging is when I start my day I am much more focused on the bigger picture but, the longer the day or the longer your in an open position the more narrow minded I become.

I assume it is definetley a focus point of view.

When a market is very volatile or your in a position where you want to take minimal risk like a scalp or something your post is so close to home.

I find scalping very very effective when looking at the bigger picture. Especially in the last minute of a market.

Thanks pal

[Yorkshire Pud]

Good advice as always JG.

I realised that I was guilty of this recently and have to make a conscious effort to stand back and make sure I haven't got my blinkers on!! I find I do it more once I've opened a position and I'm focused intently on it not going against me, rather than observing the rest of the market and knowing sooner if I need to get out. There's so much to take in when you first start and I think you subconsciously block out the stuff that's overloading you.

[napshnap]

That illustrates what i philosophically hate about trading/betting/earning - fear to show the way to goldmine you once found. Most good people want to help others but afraid to lose their edge/edges by sharing concrete signals/mix of signals and parameters.

I don't trying to offend JollyGreen, it's beautifuly written idea (there is another good story about blind sages touching elephant's separate parts and judging about whole animal they "see"), just pointing that from experienced trader's view post contains minimum valuable information: don't use only few market indicators like wom and relatively big sums. Keep it Simple, as you wrote.

Again, I don't trying to offend, just want to hear your guys opinion about how you guys deal with your pure altruistic desire to help others earn and fear of losing your edges?

[Yorkshire Pud]

That illustrates what i philosophically hate about trading/betting/earning - fear to show the way to goldmine you once found. Most good people want to help others but afraid to lose their edge/edges by sharing concrete signals/mix of signals and parameters.

I don't trying to offend JollyGreen, it's beautifuly written idea (there is another good story about blind sages touching elephant's separate parts and judging about whole animal they "see"), just pointing that from experienced trader's view post contains minimum valuable information: don't use only few market indicators like wom and relatively big sums. Keep it Simple, as you wrote.

Again, I don't trying to offend, just want to hear your guys opinion about how you guys deal with your pure altruistic desire to help others earn and fear of losing your edges?

I don't understand your post here fully napshnap? You're not suggesting JG isn't trying to guide us all in the right direction are you? Beacause he is one of a few experienced traders on here that gives a lot with no expectation of anything in return. He is one of the "nice guys" you mention.

[spreadbetting]

I don't understand your post here fully napshnap? You're not suggesting JG isn't trying to guide us all in the right direction are you? Beacause he is one of a few experienced traders on here that gives a lot with no expectation of anything in return. He is one of the "nice guys" you mention.

He's not suggesting JG's trying to steer people in the wrong direction just in his opinion JG isn't actually giving anything away about how to actually trade the markets for fear of losing his 'edges' if others also used them.

[napshnap]

I don't understand your post here fully napshnap? You're not suggesting JG isn't trying to guide us all in the right direction are you? Beacause he is one of a few experienced traders on here that gives a lot with no expectation of anything in return. He is one of the "nice guys" you mention.

He's not suggesting JG's trying to steer people in the wrong direction just in his opinion JG isn't actually giving anything away about how to actually trade the markets for fear of losing his 'edges' if others also used them.

I must add, i don't know JG well so my post relates only to his post in this thread and not to his personal quality.
His post triggered thoughts I've been thinking a long time.

[Yorkshire Pud]

I don't understand your post here fully napshnap? You're not suggesting JG isn't trying to guide us all in the right direction are you? Beacause he is one of a few experienced traders on here that gives a lot with no expectation of anything in return. He is one of the "nice guys" you mention.

He's not suggesting JG's trying to steer people in the wrong direction just in his opinion JG isn't actually giving anything away about how to actually trade the markets for fear of losing his 'edges' if others also used them.

I must add, i don't know JG well so my post relates only to his post in this thread and not to his personal quality.
His post triggered thoughts I've been thinking a long time.

Ok, appologies.

I don't know him personally either, but he seems like a good guy from what I've seen. He's maybe not given much away on this post, but have a read of his previous posts, he does put some good stuff up that points you in the right direction.

[JollyGreen]

Hi napshnap and others who have replied.

First napshnap, you didn't offend me, I totally understand and respect your point of view. I will expand on your points a bit if I may.

The term 'edge' is far too subjective to me because it encompasses a plethora of things. Perhaps an edge is the ability to click the mouse quickly, or a fast connection with almost zero latency. It could also be the ability to recognise patterns and act on them.

IMHO there is no edge in the market based on a specific error, or pattern that repeats itself allowing only the user who found it to benefit exclusively. If anyone finds it, the market will soon close it. Ask PeterLe, a forum regular and a good friend of mine. He found a method and it was flying for ages but eventually it died a death. If you have found something then good luck to you but make hay while the sun shines because dusk is coming and there may not be a new dawn! I do not mean that in a condescending manner, this is based on 16-17 years in the markets.

Why do I say this? The market is what it is and this will always remain true. The way to profit in my humble opinion is to play the error in the market. The error will always be there because we cannot have perfection in any aspect of life, let alone the Betfair markets. That error has tightened up over the years but it is still present. Are Betfair running with the fox and the hounds? They probably are but I cannot prove that, I can only give you my honest opinion.

I can show other traders exactly what I do and I know it works. Would I give that information away for free on a forum? I would simply reply with my own question. "I have spent the best part of 10 years learning these things so why would I give them away for free?"

So if I give away my method would I lose my edge? I have to say NO! I can show someone exactly what I am looking for but can the apply it and commit to the market as fast as me? Can they take 16/17 years of experience and copy it?

My method without details is simple. I try to read the market and look for certain indicators I know will offer me good opportunities. If I see them and they line up then I commit 100% and trade what I see. Here is the crux of the matter, my method relies on my ability to act before the majority of others act. It is based on what the market is actually doing, not what others want you to think it is doing! By this I mean spoofers, and BOTS.

This means I am in the market trading a move and when other react or act like me but slower, I am creating a positive trade. Does it work 100%? Hell no it doesn't! That is confirmation of my early comment, we cannot have perfection but the important thing is when I am correct I am looking for 6-20 ticks of profit and if I am incorrect then a 4-5 tick loss. These are just example numbers as I cannot be exact overall.

So the definition of edge remains very much subjective to me.

Again, this is just me and I do not claim to be the best or perfect trader. I just know it works and it is far less stressful and unreliable than other methods I see.

I hope that helps but I am willing to answer any questions you may have.

JG

[napshnap]

Can they take 16/17 years of experience and copy it?

If you can define exact ranges of indicators you using than it can be replicated with self-written bot or even programs wich allow automation (like betangel). I write bots myself, i know it can be done. And i also know that reviling some of my edges will murder them.
I agree with you that some edges have a lifetime, and some of them a very short one (like this guy who is lumping kilos on favs at aus horseracing. He'll leave and edge will expire). I've been thru that myself. Some of my edges (by wich I mean complex of indicators and tools used to react to them) faded away cause of markets changes. But other edges working pretty well and stable for years and I'm still discovering a new ones.

So to summarize my point: edges can be formalized and automated. Should we reveal them to newbs for free - that's discussional. Should we badgger newbs giving them false hopes - absolutely fn not!

[Black Ice]

Hi JG..very good to see you back! 1 Qn please: Timewise when do you tend to get into a market..always within the last 5mins? Or do you find some hot favs come in before 5mins only to reverse after? And do you find it's better to get in later with NH than say the AW?
Many thanks...

[Bluesky]

Great to see you posting again JG, I always find I learn things from your posts. I hope you will be able to find the time to be contribute to this forum when you can.

[JollyGreen]

Hi JG..very good to see you back! 1 Qn please: Timewise when do you tend to get into a market..always within the last 5mins? Or do you find some hot favs come in before 5mins only to reverse after? And do you find it's better to get in later with NH than say the AW?
Many thanks...

I tend to concentrate on the next market as soon as the preceding one has turned in play. This may be 5 minutes but on a bad day it could be 30 seconds. With steamers I tend to look at just how much it has moved and how much money has traded. There is no guaranteed continuation of support but I use a couple of things to guide me.

Here is what I would say...for free!

If you see a steamer which starts to move out just be aware of how much money is driving it out. You may find the full money has yet to hit the market so when it does, the support money can whiplash it back in and many people trading the assumed continuing drift will get stung!

HTH

[JollyGreen]

If you can define exact ranges of indicators you using than it can be replicated with self-written bot or even programs wich allow automation (like betangel).

That's just it, I cannot define exact ranges! I also write BOTS and started it long before the current automation. No BOT worked as well I could. I recently worked with a Full Time Forex trader who has successfully made the transition to Sports trading. He has professional colleagues writing BOTS for FOREX and so he employed them to write his sports BOTS....they wrote them but they couldn't do it!

Now if you can, then good luck to you because you sit atop the hill!

PS I am referring solely to pre race UK horse racing markets