Did you back Roma / AC Milan at HT @11/10 and 15/8 ?

[jonnyg]

I am just updating some data > which I am hoping will blow your mind in terms of why the prices at HT would have been against you and in favour of the betting industry >

[jonnyg]

At half time Roma were offered at 11/10 and Milan were offered at 15/8

In Serie A last season in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 HT > 21% ended in away wins , 14-15 season 26% , and 2013-2014 13%

In the table below I have added the last 40 games in Serie A where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway in the first half;

20-14-6 <> away teams won 15% <> 1/0.15 = 11/2

The betting industry does not consider that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by variables that may occur which you can exploit

83% ended over 2.5 goals and 65% over 3.5 goals , 1/0.65 = 8/15

T T+1 HT FT
Sampdoria Roma A5 H21 1 1 3 2
Udinese Milan A8 H31 1 1 2 1
Sassuolo Palmero A8 H15 2 1 4 1
Espanyol Milan A15 H17 1 1 1 4
Bologna Palermo A9 H20 1 1 3 1
Genoa Udinese A11 H24 1 1 1 1
Pescara Sampdoria A12 H23 1 1 1 1
Inter Bologna A14 H37 1 1 1 1
Atalanta Udinese A10 H19 1 1 1 1
Genoa Roma A6 H13 1 1 2 3
Sampdoria Lazio A3 H20 1 1 2 1
Torino Sassuolo A2 H7 1 1 1 3
Inter Udinese A9 H36 1 1 3 1
Chievo Frosinone A5 H36 1 1 5 1
Atalanta Milan A5 H44 1 1 2 1
Carpi Sassuolo A4 H25 1 2 1 3
Milan Lazio A9 H15 1 1 1 1
Napoli Chievo A2 H6 2 1 3 1
Empoli Roma A5 H22 1 2 1 3
Hellas Inter A8 H12 2 1 3 3
Hellas Genoa A19 H39 1 1 1 1
Empoli Milan A8 H32 1 1 2 2
Napoli Sassuolo A3 H19 2 1 3 1
Sassuolo Frosinone A16 H22 1 2 2 2
Juventus Fiorentina A3 H6 1 1 3 1
Sassuolo Fiorentina A5 H42 1 1 1 1
Frosinone Genoa A6 H31 2 1 2 2
Chievo Sampdoria A8 H34 1 1 1 1
Genoa Chievo A1 H13 2 1 3 2
Juventus Bologna A5 H33 1 1 3 1
Sassuolo Atalanta A13 H22 2 2 2 2
Sassuolo Napoli A3 H32 1 1 2 1
Genoa Inter A19 H24 2 2 3 2
Napoli Cesena A15 H19 2 2 3 2
Roma Udinese A19 H45 1 1 2 1
Hellas Empoli A6 H24 1 1 2 1
Empoli Fiorentina A4 H28 1 1 2 3
Napoli Sampdoria A12 H31 2 1 4 2
Empoli Parma A19 H32 2 1 2 2
Udinese Torino A15 H17 2 1 3 2

[jonnyg]

I can take you on an In Play journey in the Napoli game >

Palermo early away goal


2/5 4/1 11/2


over 3.5 at 4/11

Napoli at home in the league when conceding the opening goal 0-20 >

1-1 3-1 3-1 3-1 3-2 4-2 2-2 6-2 2-1 3-1 1-1 3-2 1-1 2-3 1-3 1-1 1-3 3-1 1-1 2-2 3-1


11-7-3 Napoli won 52%


1/0.52 = 10/11

BTTS YES 100%


your immediate thought at 0-1 should have been that Napoli were too short


at 0-1 HT

0-1 HT Over 2.5 67% 56% 37%
0-1 HT Away W% 61% 67% 85%
0-1 HT Draw % 17% 11% 11%
0-1 HT Home % 22% 22% 4%


Serie A 0-1 HT goal 0-20 > 15/16 - 13/14


as you can see a home win will not be common but at HT the prices were


8/11 5/2 4/1


and at 1-1


4/9 2/1 20/1


over 3.5 at 5/4


just updating the 0-1 HT goal 0-20 Serie A data > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band



Summary


via the time of the opening goal and the current score you can match the expected prices and the betting industry prices and ' trade ' the prices in play if they are out of line

[jonnyg]

T HT T+1 FT
Napoli Palermo 6 0 1 H66 1 1
Pescara Sass 1 0 1 H56 1 3
Udinese Torino 15 0 1 H60 2 2
Hellas Frosinone 15 0 1 H64 1 2
Napoli Genoa 10 0 1 H51 3 1
Sass Udinese 8 0 1 H64 1 1
Empoli Frosinone 17 0 1 H59 1 2
Milan Udinese 17 0 1 H48 1 1
Lazio Chievo 5 0 1 H66 4 1
Inter Lazio 5 0 1 H61 1 2
Atalanta Lazio 16 0 1 H69 2 1
Torino Fiorentina 10 0 1 H67 3 1
Lazio Milan 4 0 1 H47 3 1
Sass Empoli 18 0 1 H56 3 1
Napoli Torino 14 0 1 H55 2 1
Milan Torino 17 0 1 H49 1 1
Genoa Torino 7 0 1 H69 1 1
Juventus Cagliari 13 0 1 H61 1 1
Napoli Cagliari 18 0 1 H48 3 2
Roma Pescara 14 0 1 H51 1 1



last 20 games in Serie A 0-1 HT goal 0-20 > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band

8-8-4 Home teams won 40%

1/0.4 = 6/4 < at 1-1 Napoli were offered at 4/9


at 0-1 and 0-1 HT and 1-1 the Napoli price was way out of line given the events that occurred >

which I pointed out on my free in play thread

[sarkec]

Hello,

Do you take into cosideration starting prices when making your research in statistics or you don't care about it?
Do you use theese kind of stats while trading everytime or just in some leagues?
Do you use league averages or team averages?

Thanks

[jonnyg]

Do you take into cosideration starting prices when making your research in statistics or you don't care about it?

I use odds portal to look at starting prices > but saying that > the basis of my research is that there may be variables that could weaken the perceived strength of a team > so in effect the SP price is not a consideration re my model although via my blog site socdoc > you will see a few blogs where I have shown the starting prices >


Do you use theese kind of stats while trading everytime or just in some leagues?

I have looked at a number of leagues around the globe < no particular focus although I do tend to focus more on the European leagues <


Do you use league averages or team averages?

I look at both <>

[sarkec]

Thank you for your anwer.
Where do you get theese goal minutes stats?
Is there a software/site where you can get theese kind of stats?

Thanks