“06-06-2016) Ghent University scientists contradict what is generally assumed: if a home team scores just before half-time, then it often scores less after half-time and ends up, averagely speaking, with a lower goal difference.
The football myth doesn’t survive the confrontation with the data. For a given score at half-time, a goal just before half-time does not have any statistically significant effect on the chances of winning.”
http://www.ugent.be/en/news-events/news ... h-debunked
The “ confrontation ” data
In the table below I have added all the games in the Premier League since 14-15 where the home team opened the scoring 40-HT ;
28-6-4 <> the home teams won 74%
Since 2008-2009 in the Premier League in games where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time and 75% ended a home win.
In the table below in games where the home team opened the scoring on 45 minutes > the home teams won 86%
T HT FT
Hull Liverpool 44 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Hull 45 1 0 2 0
Spurs Chelsea 45 1 0 2 0
Stoke Watford 45 1 0 2 0
WHU Burnley 45 1 0 1 0
Man City Chelsea 45 1 0 1 3
Arsenal Spurs 42 1 0 1 1
Man City Boro 43 1 0 1 1
Spurs Leicester 44 1 0 1 1
Leicester Palace 42 1 0 3 1
Leicester Burnley 45 1 0 3 0
Hull Leicester 45 1 0 2 1
Man UTD Bourne 43 1 0 3 0
South. Palace 43 1 0 4 1
Arsenal Palace 45 1 0 1 1
Newcastle Swansea 40 1 0 3 0
Norwich Newcastle 45 1 0 3 2
South. Chelsea 42 1 0 1 2
Villa Norwich 45 1 0 2 0
Leicester Stoke 42 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Newcastle 45 1 0 3 0
WBA Everton 41 1 0 2 3
Newcastle Chelsea 42 1 0 2 2
Man UTD Sunderland 45 1 0 3 0
South. Norwich 45 1 0 3 0
Chelsea Palace 45 1 0 1 0
Leicester Chelsea 45 1 0 1 3
Sunderland Newcastle 45 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Villa 43 1 0 3 1
Arsenal WHU 45 1 0 3 0
Man City Leicester 45 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Newcastle 43 1 0 2 0
Leicester Villa 45 1 0 1 0
Spurs Southampton 40 1 0 1 0
Liverpool WBA 45 1 0 2 1
QPR Sunderland 45 1 0 1 0
Man City Liverpool 41 1 0 3 1
Hull Stoke 42 1 0 1 1
No better moment for a goal than just before half-time ?
The chaps at Ghent University have not grasped the effect of game state in the Premier League >
game state is simply the current score as time decays in a game > because 1-0 HT to the home team in the PL in all games in that sample > ignoring the time of the opening goal = lowered expectation of the away team fighting back
for example Man City last won away in the league when losing 1-0 HT in 1992
game state is simply the current score as time decays in a game > because 1-0 HT to the home team in the PL in all games in that sample > ignoring the time of the opening goal = lowered expectation of the away team fighting back
for example Man City last won away in the league when losing 1-0 HT in 1992
Wow , great info mate. 