Exchange profitability long term

[Newgauss]

First post and excellent forum.

I wanted to know are there any issues with being profitable in the long term on Betdaq, Smarkets or Matchbook?

I realise Betfair has its charges as earnings progress and the others only have the commission but a little concerned with posts been made over time.

[LeTiss]

Welcome

One question for you......are you profitable?

That's a good place to start, as many traders get carried away worrying about premium charge before they even get there

[Newgauss]

Thanks LeTiss for the reply.

Yes in-play football trading.

[Newgauss]

Any other comments welcome

[xitian]

I realise Betfair has its charges as earnings progress and the others only have the commission but a little concerned with posts been made over time.

I'm not fully sure what posts you're referring to specifically. Perhaps you should explain in more detail what your concerns are? Is it that you're worried Betfair might raise commissions even further? Or that earning a living after commission after the higher levels of PC aren't viable? Or something else?

I wanted to know are there any issues with being profitable in the long term on Betdaq, Smarkets or Matchbook?

There definitely are people who are profitable on Betdaq, Smarkets and Matchbook. None of the exchanges currently have a great reputation though, with stories of them closing accounts if they are unhappy with what you are doing. Betdaq probably have the best reputation at the moment, but I read they have raised commissions for some people who are the most consistent. For football trading, I expect Betdaq is your best option as an alternative to Betfair.

I expect for the large majority of people that they are still able to make more money on Betfair after commission than on Betdaq due to liquidity. None of the exchanges are particularly growing as far as I am aware.

As LeTiss mentioned, scalability, platform risk, long term industry risk (taxation, regulation, etc...) are probably secondary concerns before actually nailing the ability to consistently earn a living. The prior items aren't things you have control over, and I expect most industries, careers, sectors will have similar systematic risks. I agree it's good to be aware of what those risks are though.

If you're good enough at trading, then those risks under-weigh the benefits and profits you can make. If you're only border-line profitable, then obviously those risks weigh on you more - in which case one answer is to just get better at trading to make it worth it! I doubt Psychoff (in-play football trader with large P&Ls) is particularly concerned about long term systematic risks.

[Euler]

I only use Betfair and Betdaq as they are the only exchanges where I can definitely win long term without any concern. I'd imagine the emergers are heavily seeding their markets so that present a problem for trying to and being a consistent winner.

[Newgauss]

Appreciate the reply Xitian.

I feel generally uncomfortable with the attitude of exchanges towards profitable customers.

I have no intention of spreading my earnings across selling software, seminars, selling tips etc and want to solely earn money from sports trading.

But it has to be worth my time in earning potential starting in 2017 (not in the good old days 10 years ago when things were different and large profits have already been accumulated).

My brother has earnt a living in pre-race trading scalping for 4 years now although this has slowed in recent years considerably.

I went to university later in life due to professional sporting commitments in my younger years and the trade off of getting real experience on my CV against in some sense gambling as an alternative only really works if the carrot dangling is still sufficiently large if you get what I am saying. I am fully aware of Rebello, the twins, Psychoff and others for inplay football trading.

[Newgauss]

Thanks for that Euler.

[Euler]

I feel generally uncomfortable with the attitude of exchanges towards profitable customers.

True exchanges let people win, so not sure why you are feeling uncomfortable? I still earn six figures a year and don't feel under any sort of threat?

[Newgauss]

Good to hear.

I appreciate all the responses from the experienced posters.

[xitian]

Hi Newgauss,

It seems as though you're trying to decide from a careers perspective whether sports trading is for you.

I feel generally uncomfortable with the attitude of exchanges towards profitable customers.

My understanding is that generally exchanges will only close you down if you're doing something they don't like, which is mostly likely going to be something a bit dodgy. If you're just a straight trader/gambler then I don't see any problems, especially from Betfair and Betdaq. I wouldn't worry about this if that's your plan. Exchanges aren't going to disappear over night.

I have no intention of spreading my earnings across selling software, seminars, selling tips etc and want to solely earn money from sports trading.

That's absolutely fine. I think a lot of people are just traders for themselves, make a living from it, and want to keep it that way. In fact it's simpler that way from a potential tax perspective.

I went to university later in life due to professional sporting commitments in my younger years and the trade off of getting real experience on my CV against in some sense gambling as an alternative only really works if the carrot dangling is still sufficiently large if you get what I am saying.

I see what you're saying here. I think you need to weigh it up against any normal career decision. For everyone, that carrot looks different to them. All I can say is that there are indeed people who can make a very good living from sports trading, and earn even more than they would in any alternative job, however that is not to say it's easy to do or the most likely outcome. Only you know what drive and potential you have, only you know what the carrot looks like to you.

I'd personally want to have a realistic alternative should I fail to maintain an income stream from trading for whatever reason, and I probably do have options open to me. If you agree with that thought process, then perhaps building your CV for a while is a good idea while trading on the side. Alternatively you could look at it from the reverse angle, and say you'll make trading your main thing, but in the meantime re-invest some of your earnings into some sort of side business venture.

I think you already knew what the answers to this thread were going to be - but you were hoping for some amazing comment to help you make an easy decision. Sorry to disappoint, but there probably is no extra information to make it an easy choice. Just look at what you can see, make the best decision you can based on what you can see, and don't expect to be able to predict the future. In part it depends on what level of risk vs reward you're happy with. How ironic!

[xitian]

I also think it might be useful to analyse how you feel about your sporting career. It sounds as though you feel like it's left you with no transferable skills. Let's say becoming a sports trader could potentially leave you in the same position in 10 years time. Does that make you fearful? Or are you viewing your current situation as an exciting opportunity to learn and do new things?

If you had a fantastic time during your professional sports career, would you ever want to go back in time and wipe it out so that instead you could have some "real" experience on your CV instead?

Maybe I should have a new career as a psychoanalyst!

[ruthlessimon]

I went to university later in life due to professional sporting commitments in my younger years

I guess that's the risk I'm running myself. technically I'm in a 'gap year', but I can't ever seeing myself going to uni - what's the point? I enjoy trading too much, & nowadays opportunities are online (think youtube/vine stars etc.) big caveat though, my personality suits trading 100% - I despise the thought of making someone else rich, being stuck in the rat-race & shagging the CEO's ugly daughter to move up the ranks. moreover, the challenge of trading provides so much satisfaction to me, something no other job will ever be able to replicate. & if the banks want legitimate income, the excess profits can go into a buy-to-let business, simples

-a buy-to-let business, that will be funded by those in heaps of degree debt & took the easy option #statusquo

[ShaunWhite]

I despise the thought of....shagging the CEO's ugly daughter to move up the ranks.

Hang on, nobody told me about that option! I did the 60hrs a week instead and that wasn't much fun either, and took a hell of a lot longer.

[ruthlessimon]

I despise the thought of....shagging the CEO's ugly daughter to move up the ranks.

Hang on, nobody told me about that option! I did the 60hrs a week instead and that wasn't much fun either, and took a hell of a lot longer.

yeah you missed a trick shaun. to be fair companies plagued with office politics that bad, deserve to go down the pan. probably a decent edge for shorting firms!