As some will have seen I've been tinkering about for a month or two, getting to know the latest version of BetAngel and running a few half -hearted lay "strategies". After reading some replies to posts here I came to the conclusion that even if by some miracle, I thought I'd stumbled across the atm we'd all like after just a couple of weeks, as I was only in practice mode the "results" couldn't really be relied upon because it's all make believe. Practice mode is great for learning how things work and how to write and test automation rules (particular shout out to Dallas for all the great stuff he posts on that particular subject) but you don't know about real time fills and the like until you jump in for real.
Obviously I'm only using a small bank for the time being. I don't have any live TV pictures.
I'm trying scalping pre-off and have been generally successful with the losses you would expect from a novice. I scalped 5 races today and turned a small profit on them all. I'm not greedy and usually green up when I get to around £1 profit (only betting £5). I always back first for liability reasons, I look for a Betfair graph that shows a selection has been consistently shortening in price and I play attention to areas of previous high volume and those significant key prices where the tick value changes. I watch out for WoM on my selection and also keep one eye on other selection's prices. I am mindful of spoofing although I'm not sure what I can/should do about it.
I have already learned that holding unmatched offsets in-running is really, really stupid ( I got away with it a couple of times and then got cocky before the market amply demonstrated the error of my ways). I've fixed that by applying automation that greens up 10 secs before the off, whatever my position.
Sometimes of course you're happily scalping a tick here and there over a small range when the market inexplicably (to me) just marches away from your position and simply refuses to come back no matter how much you will it.
I realise that I might be asking the $64,000 question but can any of you veterans give me any pointers about what else to look out for that might help me to reduce losses when my selection drifts (apart from the prices moving away north)?
Thanks in advance for any advice.
Just gone live, would welcome some input about scalping.
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
With small liabilities, spoofers shouldn't be much of a fear in my opinion, they have the ability to cause a shudder/mini earthquake in the market, but if you're on the back side, your liability isn't affected regardless, a tenner loss is a tenner loss!
You seem to have all the basics dead right, never let anything go inplay being the main one, and don't chase your losses. If you do either of those, you're not trading, you're pure gambling because you have no control on the outcome. Taking or having direct control on the outcome(lay side) of your back bet is the difference between you trading, and gambling.
Everyone has their own little niches and nuances they like to take advantage of, I like things like a few of the big UK trainers having a runner in Irish races, or tiny Irish trainers sending one over to Uttoxeter or Brighton. Often you can get an early good price, then when the 10 mins out lads in the bookies spot it and say "OH he's here to do business" you can lay your tenner off in 2's and get out a good stretch before the off time.
On a similar vein, I've seen UK runners in Irish (flat) meetings being backed off the boards, coming from great form on Good/Good to Firm, expecting good ground, and it's like a rugby team did sprints on the track when their race arrives....still gets backed up until post time!
Elsewhere with the start of the flat season now, you could look for competing same stables, if Godolphin have 2 in the one race, one must be favoured more than the other. If they're both at the top of the market, then one will drift a bit and the other will steam a bit, then it might flip flop, if you've judged it right and got on the correct sides of both trades, I call it a flip-flop-swing-swong trade. My favourite type
Many traders don't watch the race they traded, just move onto the next one. You might find it useful to watch the races you pre-off traded. Was there a drift on X because of something the RacingUK guy said, or did X kick the jockey off and go a bit crazy until he was remounted?
Had you a bet on X?
Has he a previous history of being a bad starter?
Is X remounted and sweating like a pedo in a Barney suit now?
If X is still in the field, he could be a small back to lay chance if he's burnt off enough energy running like a mad yolk, he'll break like a demon and your lay might be matched a few ticks down when IR players crap themselves and wanna get out
You seem to have all the basics dead right, never let anything go inplay being the main one, and don't chase your losses. If you do either of those, you're not trading, you're pure gambling because you have no control on the outcome. Taking or having direct control on the outcome(lay side) of your back bet is the difference between you trading, and gambling.
Everyone has their own little niches and nuances they like to take advantage of, I like things like a few of the big UK trainers having a runner in Irish races, or tiny Irish trainers sending one over to Uttoxeter or Brighton. Often you can get an early good price, then when the 10 mins out lads in the bookies spot it and say "OH he's here to do business" you can lay your tenner off in 2's and get out a good stretch before the off time.
On a similar vein, I've seen UK runners in Irish (flat) meetings being backed off the boards, coming from great form on Good/Good to Firm, expecting good ground, and it's like a rugby team did sprints on the track when their race arrives....still gets backed up until post time!
Elsewhere with the start of the flat season now, you could look for competing same stables, if Godolphin have 2 in the one race, one must be favoured more than the other. If they're both at the top of the market, then one will drift a bit and the other will steam a bit, then it might flip flop, if you've judged it right and got on the correct sides of both trades, I call it a flip-flop-swing-swong trade. My favourite type
Many traders don't watch the race they traded, just move onto the next one. You might find it useful to watch the races you pre-off traded. Was there a drift on X because of something the RacingUK guy said, or did X kick the jockey off and go a bit crazy until he was remounted?
Had you a bet on X?
Has he a previous history of being a bad starter?
Is X remounted and sweating like a pedo in a Barney suit now?
If X is still in the field, he could be a small back to lay chance if he's burnt off enough energy running like a mad yolk, he'll break like a demon and your lay might be matched a few ticks down when IR players crap themselves and wanna get out