Too Late to Start Trading
Another terrible day of learning to trade on Betfair. Its only 3:45 and I have had to stop. There just seems to be no rhyme to reason to what transpires in a Betfair market. The price movement certainly has no bearing on a horse’s chances of winning a race, and the weight of money is mostly false as it changes dramatically from second to second. I’m beginning to think that small traders just cannot make a long term profit trading on Betfair. It seems to me that the only way to make a profit is to put £100,000 in your account and manipulate the market like everyone else. Maybe I am just 10 years too late.
Its true the markets are different to what they where 10yrs ago and what worked then may not work now, just as in another 10yrs whats working today may no longer be as effective then so i would'nt try to compare the two.
The prices are very efficent come the off - how they get their is another matter but this is what you want as a trader as your buying and selling volitiliy so only need the very smallest of edges to be profitable.
One thing you dont need is a £100k bank if you did you'll find it far hard than using a small bank - the price can and will still move against you but if you have a 5 figure exposure and their is barely a few thousand spread across the next several prices waiting to be matched your going to have to take a massive hit to get out.
I dont know what or how your currently trading but find the type of markets that suit you and your style and focus on them untill you start seeing some positive results then begin looking at others. Even then not everyday will have subtible markets and you may have to adjust slightly if you intend to trade them. I did nt even look at the markets today i was expecting them to be very weak with the Aintree festival finishing yesterday.
The prices are very efficent come the off - how they get their is another matter but this is what you want as a trader as your buying and selling volitiliy so only need the very smallest of edges to be profitable.
One thing you dont need is a £100k bank if you did you'll find it far hard than using a small bank - the price can and will still move against you but if you have a 5 figure exposure and their is barely a few thousand spread across the next several prices waiting to be matched your going to have to take a massive hit to get out.
I dont know what or how your currently trading but find the type of markets that suit you and your style and focus on them untill you start seeing some positive results then begin looking at others. Even then not everyday will have subtible markets and you may have to adjust slightly if you intend to trade them. I did nt even look at the markets today i was expecting them to be very weak with the Aintree festival finishing yesterday.
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beepbeep20
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:05 pm
I don't trade Sundays anymore although I did when I first started. I stopped because the markets on a Sunday always felt much weaker than even a boring midweek meeting, not very much money really wanting to be matched.
Also I'm always wary about the markets just after a big meeting has finished, it always seems like the markets take a few days to get back to normal after Cheltenham/Aintree/Ascot etc.
Also I'm always wary about the markets just after a big meeting has finished, it always seems like the markets take a few days to get back to normal after Cheltenham/Aintree/Ascot etc.
When trading with a small bank we just have to take our losses, while those trading with a big bank can do something about it. We can look at the last race at Wolverhampton yesterday as an example. I was doing OK for the meeting and I was looking at a small profit on the last race just before the off. I had an order in at 5.0 and I was watching the clock as I hovered over 4.9 while the money was taken and it looked like I would get my order filled in time. Then all of a sudden the price dropped right off the page. Some guy with money had slapped £40,000 in at 4.0 to get the price he wanted and I lost my profit for the meeting. This sort of thing seems to happen over and over again. I know it doesn’t help that I work 9 to 5 during the week and can only trade in the weaker evening meetings together with Saturdays and Sundays.
To be honest the Aintree meeting on Saturday (including the Grand National market) was no better 10s of thousands were repeatedly appearing and disappearing from the betting and laying orders, as those with big banks manipulated the markets to ensure that they could get their actual real money orders filled. To manipulate markets with the favourite at 12.0 or higher requires a bank in excess of £100,000. At this stage, I cannot claim to be the best reader of market trends, but even when I get it right I only have a short window of opportunity to complete my trades before the market manipulators take the market of in a new direction. Taking the example that I cited in my last post, I read the market correctly but lost while, I assume that, the guy who put in an order of £40,000 just before the off (with no intentions of actually risking this money) made a profit. This does not provide small traders with a level playing field and allow new traders to learn the craft. Is there any way that Bet Angel could identify orders from people that repeatedly pull orders before they are matched so that traders can ignore this false money and the market can be formed around actual money being risked.
No I don't think its too late to start trading now, I also wouldn't be surprised in 10 years time we might look back to this period as being a golden time due to the progress in the field of AI etc. If we take the fields of poker and match betting that I know a little about, people always say things were much easier years ago. They are right about this, but it did not feel like that at the time. I am sure trading will be the same, we will look back in say a decade and say trading was much easier than it is at present, but it certainly does not feel so at the time.
In relation to your market reading (I'm no expert by the way), don't be in a rush to make money, try and learn how the markets move, try and watch the trading screen as much as you can, and the picture will begin to become clearer. It is very tough to learn to trade while doing a 9 to 5 job, but that's the only choice most people have (possibly the reason most people fail at this too but that's another debate), try and get as much screen time in as possible on evenings and weekends. Use stake sizes small enough that you will still be able to think clearly if positions go against you, but large enough that you will still take it seriously.
Good luck and don't get too concerned over things you have no control of, you cant stop the big money manipulators skewing the market, but you might learn to take advantage at times of this manipulation.
In relation to your market reading (I'm no expert by the way), don't be in a rush to make money, try and learn how the markets move, try and watch the trading screen as much as you can, and the picture will begin to become clearer. It is very tough to learn to trade while doing a 9 to 5 job, but that's the only choice most people have (possibly the reason most people fail at this too but that's another debate), try and get as much screen time in as possible on evenings and weekends. Use stake sizes small enough that you will still be able to think clearly if positions go against you, but large enough that you will still take it seriously.
Good luck and don't get too concerned over things you have no control of, you cant stop the big money manipulators skewing the market, but you might learn to take advantage at times of this manipulation.
Thanks for the ebook tip.
I just started forex training and have a rough trading plan:
So I am only going to bounce trade in sideways channel to learn that strategy for first 30 days as newbie trader, if the following occurs I can open a short trade at top of channel or long trade at bottom of channel, knowing that my target is to capture 2-3 trade profits before the market hits my stop loss out of the channel and I lose that last trade with stop loss 10 pips $10 outside channel.
A - If a sideways channel occurs by being able to fit inside a rectangle,
B - Similar lows and similar highs occur in the sideways channel,
C - Must be USA session 12 noon - 3pm no big news coming out,
D - Market settled down and stopped making new lows and stopped making new highs,
E - Trade at each top and bottom risk 10 pips at $1 each for reward of at least 20 pips at $1 each.
F - Trade the USD major pairs in 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour time charts.
G - Must be 3 similar points at least in channel where got 2 similar tops and 2 similar bottoms.
H - As market gets closer to top or bottom of channel I take trade to the opposite way 50% of available pips with minimum of 20 pips at $1 per pip.
I - Stop loss of 10 pips outside of channel at $1 per pip.
J - Risk to Reward Ratio at least 1-2 so risk 10 pips to win at least 20 pips.
Target is to win 2-3 channel bounce trades at 20 pips x $1 = $20 x say 2 wins = $40
Find 5 bounce channels per day between 12 noon - 3 pm USA time in USD major pairs = $40 x 5 channels = $200
Trade for Mon-Thurs so 20 bounce trades in 4 days x $200 = $800 per week gross profit.
Less the last losing trade each channel of 10 pips = $10 x 20 bounce trades per week = - ($200.)
Net profit $600 per week less spreads.
Use 50% of net profit per week to add to the bank to increase value of traded pips.
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Any links on this forum to sample trading plans for horse racing as i need to write a horse racing plan?
example:
lay £2 fav horse any novice races
dobbing 20% £2 fav who is 5 star rated as pace setter on pace form in any listed races under 2m ( looks like i cant automate this in VPS? ) i need to click keep all lay bet ?
free bet fav £2 any listed races on the flat under 2m
inplay left click £2 at 1.35 flat racing under 2m
Todays Tip from the ebook:
"Ask traders to identify what they did best in yesterday’s
trading that they want to continue today. Set a positive goal, based
on strengths, to keep you in touch with the best within you. It affirms
your competencies and keeps these visible, even during challenging market
times. "
“Here
is what I’m good at, here’s what I did best yesterday, and here’s how I’m
going to make use of that strength today.”
DOBBING 20% using £10 stakes on horse with 5 stars in the pace rating charts.
"Ask traders to identify what they did best in yesterday’s
trading that they want to continue today. Set a positive goal, based
on strengths, to keep you in touch with the best within you. It affirms
your competencies and keeps these visible, even during challenging market
times. "
“Here
is what I’m good at, here’s what I did best yesterday, and here’s how I’m
going to make use of that strength today.”
DOBBING 20% using £10 stakes on horse with 5 stars in the pace rating charts.