at 1-2 Reading were offered at 4/9 which I highlighted as a MONSTER price given the events <
this is known as game pathway analysis <
via factoring the time of the opening goal and the game state ( current score ) in an individual league >Villa V Reading game probably did not grasp your attention in play BUT
the last 22 games in the Championship where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 half time > 1-2 pathway and 100% away wins
at 1-2 Reading were offered at 4/9 which I highlighted as a MONSTER price given the events <
this is known as game pathway analysis < via factoring the time of the opening goal and the game state ( current score ) in an individual league >
at 1-2 Reading were offered at 4/9 which I highlighted as a MONSTER price given the events <
this is known as game pathway analysis <
via factoring the time of the opening goal and the game state ( current score ) in an individual league >Posted on: January 22nd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
In the table below I have added the last 59 games in the Championship where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1 , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals .
17-20-22
Game Pathway
18/59 FT 1-1
20/59 > 2-1 <> 17-2-1 <> home teams won 85% = 1.18 < at 2-1 Barnsley ( home to Leeds ) were offered at 1.5
21/59 1-2 <> 0-0-21 <> away teams won 100%
> 2-2 pathway <> 7/59
Summary
The opening goal by the away team in the Championship and 1-1 half time game state and in general there will not be any home bias with the pathway > 2-2 not a common event and as a result > 1-2 / 2-1 and that will in general be a signal in this profile in the Championship that the team conceding the 3rd goal are unlikely to fightback.
T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Barnsley Leeds 18 1 1 H48 H54 3 2
Derby Reading 16 1 1 H63 H74 3 2
Blackburn Birmingham 3 1 1 1 1
Wigan Ipswich 7 1 1 H62 A68 2 3
Fulham Rotherham 19 1 1 H54 2 1
Blackburn Hudd 6 1 1 1 1
Brighton Villa 20 1 1 1 1
Wed Wigan 5 1 1 H62 2 1
Leeds Birmingham 15 1 1 A55 1 2
MK Dons Forest 8 1 1 A74 1 2
Cardiff Birmingham 11 1 1 1 1
QPR Boro 18 1 1 A51 A57 2 3
Brentford Charlton 1 1 1 A69 1 2
Leeds Fulham 17 1 1 1 1
Boro Cardiff 20 1 1 H63 H83 3 1
Hudd Fulham 2 1 1 1 1
ipswich Preston 7 1 1 1 1
Cardiff Forest 9 1 1 1 1
Leeds Derby 13 1 1 H71 A78 2 2
Fulham Ipswich 1 1 1 A57 1 2
Fulham Brentford 18 1 1 H64 A71 2 2
Bolton Cardiff 13 1 1 A53 H71 2 3
Burnley Brighton 1 1 1 1 1
Hudd Derby 15 1 1 A48 1 2
Birmingham QPR 17 1 1 H63 2 1
Leeds Brighton 14 1 1 A89 1 2
Brighton Cardiff 5 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Bolton 3 1 1 H51 H74 4 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 1 1 H53 2 1
Forest Rotherham 13 1 1 H61 2 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Leeds Cardiff 14 1 1 A62 1 2
Charlton Fulham 8 1 1 1 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Millwall Huddersfield 17 1 1 A74 A86 1 3
Wolves Reading 1 1 1 A70 1 2
Huddersfield Leeds 7 1 1 A90 1 2
Huddersfield Bolton 1 1 1 H85 2 1
Blackburn Sheff Wed 3 1 1 A90 1 2
Norwich Blackburn 1 1 1 H86 H90 3 1
Blackburn Cardiff 18 1 1 1 1
Derby Watford 5 1 1 H60 A70 4 2
Derby Huddersfield 14 1 1 H50 H57 3 1
Reading Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 1
Reading Barnsley 16 1 1 A53 A57 1 3
Blackburn Leicester 20 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Blackburn 4 1 1 A55 A65 2 4
QPR Leeds 14 1 1 1 1
QPR Reading 10 1 1 A56 A58 1 3
Bolton Charlton 11 1 1 1 1
Barnsley Yeovil 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Leeds 17 1 1 A48 H70 2 4
Huddersfield Birmingham 11 1 1 A66 A81 1 3
Huddersfield Leeds 2 1 1 H63 A73 3 2
Sheff Wed Ipswich 12 1 1 1 1
Millwall Blackpool 15 1 1 H73 H74 3 1
Ipswich Boro 12 1 1 H56 H90 3 1
Bournemouth Blackpool 7 1 1 A47 1 2
Leeds Brighton 13 1 1 H90 2 1
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In the table below I have added the last 59 games in the Championship where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1 , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals .
17-20-22
Game Pathway
18/59 FT 1-1
20/59 > 2-1 <> 17-2-1 <> home teams won 85% = 1.18 < at 2-1 Barnsley ( home to Leeds ) were offered at 1.5
21/59 1-2 <> 0-0-21 <> away teams won 100%
> 2-2 pathway <> 7/59
Summary
The opening goal by the away team in the Championship and 1-1 half time game state and in general there will not be any home bias with the pathway > 2-2 not a common event and as a result > 1-2 / 2-1 and that will in general be a signal in this profile in the Championship that the team conceding the 3rd goal are unlikely to fightback.
T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Barnsley Leeds 18 1 1 H48 H54 3 2
Derby Reading 16 1 1 H63 H74 3 2
Blackburn Birmingham 3 1 1 1 1
Wigan Ipswich 7 1 1 H62 A68 2 3
Fulham Rotherham 19 1 1 H54 2 1
Blackburn Hudd 6 1 1 1 1
Brighton Villa 20 1 1 1 1
Wed Wigan 5 1 1 H62 2 1
Leeds Birmingham 15 1 1 A55 1 2
MK Dons Forest 8 1 1 A74 1 2
Cardiff Birmingham 11 1 1 1 1
QPR Boro 18 1 1 A51 A57 2 3
Brentford Charlton 1 1 1 A69 1 2
Leeds Fulham 17 1 1 1 1
Boro Cardiff 20 1 1 H63 H83 3 1
Hudd Fulham 2 1 1 1 1
ipswich Preston 7 1 1 1 1
Cardiff Forest 9 1 1 1 1
Leeds Derby 13 1 1 H71 A78 2 2
Fulham Ipswich 1 1 1 A57 1 2
Fulham Brentford 18 1 1 H64 A71 2 2
Bolton Cardiff 13 1 1 A53 H71 2 3
Burnley Brighton 1 1 1 1 1
Hudd Derby 15 1 1 A48 1 2
Birmingham QPR 17 1 1 H63 2 1
Leeds Brighton 14 1 1 A89 1 2
Brighton Cardiff 5 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Bolton 3 1 1 H51 H74 4 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 1 1 H53 2 1
Forest Rotherham 13 1 1 H61 2 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Leeds Cardiff 14 1 1 A62 1 2
Charlton Fulham 8 1 1 1 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Millwall Huddersfield 17 1 1 A74 A86 1 3
Wolves Reading 1 1 1 A70 1 2
Huddersfield Leeds 7 1 1 A90 1 2
Huddersfield Bolton 1 1 1 H85 2 1
Blackburn Sheff Wed 3 1 1 A90 1 2
Norwich Blackburn 1 1 1 H86 H90 3 1
Blackburn Cardiff 18 1 1 1 1
Derby Watford 5 1 1 H60 A70 4 2
Derby Huddersfield 14 1 1 H50 H57 3 1
Reading Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 1
Reading Barnsley 16 1 1 A53 A57 1 3
Blackburn Leicester 20 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Blackburn 4 1 1 A55 A65 2 4
QPR Leeds 14 1 1 1 1
QPR Reading 10 1 1 A56 A58 1 3
Bolton Charlton 11 1 1 1 1
Barnsley Yeovil 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Leeds 17 1 1 A48 H70 2 4
Huddersfield Birmingham 11 1 1 A66 A81 1 3
Huddersfield Leeds 2 1 1 H63 A73 3 2
Sheff Wed Ipswich 12 1 1 1 1
Millwall Blackpool 15 1 1 H73 H74 3 1
Ipswich Boro 12 1 1 H56 H90 3 1
Bournemouth Blackpool 7 1 1 A47 1 2
Leeds Brighton 13 1 1 H90 2 1
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