The Effect of the opening goal by the Home Team in Brazil Serie B in the 21-30 Minutes Time Band added to 1-0 Half Time

[jonnyg]

The Effect of the opening goal by the Home Team in Brazil Serie B in the 21-30 Minutes Time Band added to 1-0 Half Time “Game State”

57-13-7

home teams won 74%

36% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

34% ended over 2.5 goals = 2/1


16/77 = 21% followed > pathway 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band

25/77 1-0 FT

26/77 > 2-0 26-0-0 home teams won 100% > is a 2-0 lead precarious ?

26/77 > 1-1 6-13-7 home teams won 23%



In Brazil Serie B as time decays in the 2nd half in this profile you should be looking at backing UNDER 2.5 goals with a view to trading out to avoid any late goal(s)


Brasil de Pelotas
2 - 0
Náutico
Wagner 23'
1 - 0
Nem 85'
2 - 0

Boa
1 - 1
Oeste
Rodolfo 23'
1 - 0
1 - 1
55' Mazinho

Luverdense
1 - 0
Goiás
Ricardo 23'
1 - 0

Vasco da Gama
1 - 1
Luverdense
Thalles 21'
1 - 0
1 - 1
52' Alfredo

Sampaio Corrêa
1 - 2
Joinville
Edgar 30'
1 - 0
1 - 1
86' Danrlei
1 - 2
87' Aldair

Brasil de Pelotas
2 - 1
Vasco da Gama
Diogo Oliveira 27'
1 - 0
1 - 1
49' Douglas Luiz
Marcos Paraná 87'
2 - 1

Sampaio Corrêa
1 - 1
Oeste
Thiago Santos 30'
1 - 0
1 - 1
90' Matheus Vargas

Vasco da Gama
1 - 0
Londrina
Germano (OG) 28'
1 - 0

Criciúma
1 - 0
Vila Nova
Niltinho (PG) 29'
1 - 0

Náutico
3 - 1
Vasco da Gama
Roni 25'
1 - 0
Bergson 46'
2 - 0
2 - 1
84' Mádson
Roni 90'
3 - 1

Bragantino
2 - 1
Sampaio Corrêa
César Gaúcho 23'
1 - 0
Watson 48'
2 - 0
2 - 1
50' Wágner

Criciúma
1 - 1
CRB
Jheimy 23'
1 - 0
1 - 1
88' Diego Jussani

CRB
3 - 1
Oeste
Luidy 22'
1 - 0
Francis (OG) 61'
2 - 0
Luidy 65'
3 - 0
3 - 1
87' Felipe Rodrigues


Avaí
2 - 1
Luverdense
Romulo 26'
1 - 0
1 - 1
67' Tozim
Romulo 90'
2 - 1

Atlético GO
1 - 1
Oeste
Michel 26'
1 - 0
1 - 1
90' Marquinho

Atlético GO
4 - 1
Sampaio Corrêa
Magno Cruz (PG) 27'
1 - 0
Alison 49'
2 - 0
Willian Schuster 57'
3 - 0
3 - 1
88' Edgar
Alison 90'
4 - 1

Londrina
1 - 1
Sampaio Corrêa
Germano (PG) 22'
1 - 0
1 - 1
55' Wágner

CRB
3 - 0
Tupi
Ze Carlos 30'
1 - 0
Matheus Galdezani 48'
2 - 0
Welinton 82'
3 - 0

Avaí
3 - 1
Vila Nova
Fabinho (OG) 28'
1 - 0
Lucas Fernandes 76'
2 - 0
Romulo 86'
3 - 0
3 - 1
90' C. Frontini (PG)

Tupi
1 - 1
Avaí
Jonathan 22'
1 - 0
1 - 1
61' Romulo

Paraná
1 - 2
Luverdense
Murilo Rangel 28'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Airton
1 - 2
55' Hugo

Paysandu
1 - 0
Avaí
Jhonnatan 23'
1 - 0

Náutico
2 - 0
Joinville
Renan Oliveira 23'
1 - 0
Tiago Adan 88'
2 - 0

Vila Nova
1 - 2
CRB
Fabinho 24'
1 - 0
1 - 1
84' Adalberto
1 - 2
90' Rodolfo

CRB
2 - 1
Criciúma
Luidy 30'
1 - 0
Flávio Boaventura 82'
2 - 0
2 - 1
90' Elvis (PG)

Bahia
1 - 0
Atlético GO
Vitor 21'
1 - 0

Vitória
1 - 0
Ceará
Kanu 21'
1 - 0

Ceará
3 - 0
Bragantino
Wescley 21'
1 - 0
Rafael Costa 49'
2 - 0
Siloé 66'
3 - 0

CRB
4 - 1
Atlético GO
Ze Carlos 30'
1 - 0
Gerson Magrão 51'
2 - 0
Danilo Bueno 71'
3 - 0
3 - 1
82' Júnior Viçosa (PG)

Bragantino
3 - 2
Luverdense
Leandro Silva (PG) 25'
1 - 0
Thiago Santos 58'
2 - 0
2 - 1
60' Luiz Otavio
Rodolfo 66'
3 - 1
3 - 2
90' Lucas Fernandes

Sampaio Corrêa
2 - 0
Paysandu
Jheimy 26'
1 - 0
Jheimy 90'
2 - 0

Macaé
1 - 0
Mogi Mirim
Fernando Neto 24'
1 - 0

Atlético GO
2 - 1
Paysandu
Jorginho 27'
1 - 0
1 - 1
74' Yago Picachu (PG)
Juninho 87'
2 - 1

Sampaio Corrêa
1 - 0
Ceará
Jheimy 21'
1 - 0

Santa Cruz
2 - 0
Luverdense
Alemão 30'
1 - 0
Daniel Costa 65'
2 - 0

Luverdense
1 - 1
Atlético GO
Tozim (PG) 26'
1 - 0
1 - 1
90' Juninho

Paraná
1 - 0
Bahia
Rafael Costa 27'
1 - 0

Boa
1 - 2
Paraná
Erick 26'
1 - 0
1 - 1
77' Rafael Costa
1 - 2
90' Carlinhos

Sampaio Corrêa
3 - 1
Mogi Mirim
Pimentinha 30'
1 - 0
1 - 1
64' Matheus Ortigoza
Jheimy 78'
2 - 1
Jheimy 89'
3 - 1

Santa Cruz
2 - 1
América Mineiro
Luisinho 24'
1 - 0
1 - 1
66' Tony
Bruno Moraes 74'
2 - 1

Bahia
1 - 1
América Mineiro
Kieza 27'
1 - 0
1 - 1
78' Alison

Sampaio Corrêa
1 - 0
Vitória
Diones 23'
1 - 0

Bragantino
2 - 1
Paraná
Everton Dias 26'
1 - 0
Thiago Santos 73'
2 - 0
2 - 1
88' Paulo Henrique

Sampaio Corrêa
2 - 0
Bragantino
Nadson 22'
1 - 0
Nadson 60'
2 - 0

América Mineiro
2 - 0
Boa
Alison 30'
1 - 0
Wendel (OG) 68'
2 - 0

ABC
1 - 4
Paraná
Edno (PG) 24'
1 - 0
1 - 1
51' Danielzinho
1 - 2
58' Henrique
1 - 3
67' Ricardinho
1 - 4
90' Lucas Pará

Bahia
1 - 0
Oeste
Tiago Real 25'
1 - 0


1 - 1
América Mineiro
Anselmo 30'
1 - 0
1 - 1
66' Thiago Santos


Criciúma
1 - 0
Bragantino
Lucca 28'
1 - 0

Sampaio Corrêa
3 - 1
Luverdense
Douglas 26'
1 - 0
1 - 1
70' Diego Rosa
Nadson 90'
2 - 1
Pimentinha 90'
3 - 1

Boa
3 - 0
Bragantino
Moacir 22'
1 - 0
Pirão 47'
2 - 0
João Paulo 69'
3 - 0

Bragantino
2 - 0
Bahia
Jobinho 30'
1 - 0
Alan Mineiro 75'
2 - 0

ABC
1 - 1
Bragantino
Kayke 29'
1 - 0
1 - 1
66' Jobinho

Luverdense
1 - 2
Macaé
Luiz Eduardo 30'
1 - 0
1 - 1
65' Pipico
1 - 2
68' Fernando Santos

Luverdense
1 - 0
América Mineiro
Osman (PG) 27'
1 - 0

Paraná
1 - 0
Ceará
Henrique 30'
1 - 0

Avaí
1 - 0
Vasco da Gama
Marquinhos (PG) 28'
1 - 0

América RN
1 - 0
Náutico
Rodrigo Pimpão 28'
1 - 0

Atlético GO
1 - 0
Bragantino
Diogo Campos 26'
1 - 0

Avaí
1 - 0
Icasa
Antônio Carlos 28'
1 - 0

Ceará
1 - 0
Bragantino
Nikão 24'
1 - 0

América Mineiro
1 - 0
Santa Cruz
Elsinho 21'
1 - 0

Vasco da Gama
2 - 0
Joinville
Dakson 23'
1 - 0
Thalles 58'
2 - 0

Ceará
2 - 0
América RN
Ricardinho (PG) 30'
1 - 0
Bill 85'
2 - 0

Boa
1 - 0
Paraná
Tomas Bastos 28'
1 - 0

Luverdense
2 - 0
Vila Nova
Jean Patrick 30'
1 - 0
Samuel 84'
2 - 0

Paraná
1 - 0
Icasa
Tiago Alves 22'
1 - 0

Vasco da Gama
2 - 0
Ceará
Kléber 21'
1 - 0
Douglas 57'
2 - 0

Avaí
2 - 0
América Mineiro
Diego Felipe 26'
1 - 0
Willen 66'
2 - 0

Vasco da Gama
1 - 1
América RN
Douglas 21'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Diego Renan (OG)

Sampaio Corrêa
1 - 0
Luverdense
Válber 30'
1 - 0

Joinville
1 - 0
Vila Nova
Jael 29'
1 - 0


Vila Nova
1 - 3
América RN
Cleber (OG) 27'
1 - 0
1 - 1
74' Max (PG)
1 - 2
79' Rodrigo Pimpão
1 - 3
90' Jéferson


Ponte Preta
1 - 0
Vila Nova
Juninho 26'
1 - 0

Luverdense
2 - 0
Bragantino
Misael 29'
1 - 0
Reinaldo 58'
2 - 0

Luverdense
2 - 1
Vasco da Gama
Reinaldo 22'
1 - 0
Rubinho (PG) 56'
2 - 0
2 - 1
71' Yago

Santa Cruz
1 - 1
ABC
Betinho 21'
1 - 0
1 - 1
54' Dênis Marques

[jonnyg]

This may be your eureka moment ????

expectation of a goal is dependent on the game state = current score added to the time of the opening goal >


In Brazil Serie A in 2014 in games where the home teams opened the scoring 0-10 minutes, and 44% ended over 2.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 20% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 52%

The away teams failed to score in the first half in 96%

The home teams won 92% and 8% ended a DRAW.

In Brazil Serie A 2015 season in games where the home teams opened the scoring 0-10 minutes, and 77% ended over 2.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 60%

The away teams failed to score in the first half in 80%

The home teams won 87% and the 10% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 3%

Brazil Serie A last season in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band

24-9-3

64% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals

BTTS YES 67% and over 1.5 goals landed in the first half in 61%

GAME PATHWAY

6/36 1-0 FT

14/36 > 2-0 13-1-0

16/36 > 1-1 5-8-3


In Brazil Serie A in 2014 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals and we can see that in general the early away goal metric in Brazil Serie A will result in acceleration of goal production.

The home teams won 31%, 21% ended a draw and the away teams won 48%.

Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 60%

31% of the early away goal games in 2014 in Brazil Serie A produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

2015 season in Brazil Serie A in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , 64% ended over 2.5 goals and 34% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 14%, 14% ended a draw and the away teams won 72%

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

34% of the early away goal games in Brazil Serie A 2015 season produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes.

Brazil serie A 2016 in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

13-14-24 < the away teams won 47%

Game Pathway

9/51 FT 0-1

29/51 > 1-1 12-13-4

13/51 > 0-2 1-1-11

65% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 71% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in 57%

27% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

[jonnyg]

as a basic summary > it is easy to suggest that Brazil Serie A is boring < because of the low goal production in general > what about games that produce an early goal metric ????

1. what is the expectation of acceleration of goal production ?

2. expectation of the other team fighting back ?

3. draw bias / lack or draw bias ???

[Jukebox]

lol even your basic summary has 7 or 8 question marks

[jonnyg]

i only dip in and out of football but def found MLS good for goals, i intend to do abit more in the summer leagues and then hit all the other ones full time when they all kick off again. what live streams do you use to watch the matches on, apart from the obvious, BT and SKY?
cheers.

With the MLS starting this weekend I thought I would have a look at the stats where the away side take the lead and are 0-1 up after 20 minutes.

Here the data goes back to the 2012 season, and please note this is REGULAR SEASON ONLY and does not include the Play offs

The first thing that stands out is there certainly looks to be more fightback from the home side when comparing the stats to the English Premier League.

In the MLS the home side average 1.23 points per game when losing 0-1 after 20 minutes, compared to the English Premier League which averages 0.81 points per game.

As we saw in the Premier League in 208 matches the home team scored next in just 98 matches (47.11%). Where as in the MLS the home team scored the next goal in 121 of the 210 matches which equates to 57.61% of the matches.

Interestingly when we look at the teams that have recorded 1 point or more per game, they recorded the next goal in 87 of 137 matches (63.50%)

Also of note when looking at the 7 sides that recorded less than 1 point per game in the 73 matches ONLY 13 ended up level (17.80%)

When looking at the Top 6 sides in the table below they have lost only 11 (19.64%) of 56 matches.

Other stats of note, when Toronto have conceded the opening goal and are 0-1 after 20 minutes, in 21 games there has always been another goal scored.

So in conclusion unlike the Premier League if the home side concede the opening goal and are 0-1 after 20 minutes you should expect some sort of fightback, however the likelihood of the game ending a draw is lowered and the way to exploit this would be to lay the draw as time decays.

I have noted that in games in this profile that remain 0-1 at half time added to the home fightback between the 46th and 70th minute, there will be high expectation that the game will have further goals and this will lower expectation of the draw as a result.

In summary the early away goal in the MLS will lower the expectation of the draw.

Footnote

Of 121 games that followed the pathway to 1-1 only 22 (18.18%) ended a draw.

Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes

SN = Scored Next

CN = Conceded Next

NG = No Further Goals

BS = Both Teams Scored

Team Matches W D L PPG SN CN NG BS O2.5 O3.5 HT O1.5
LA Galaxy 7 4 2 1 2.00 6 0 1 6 5 4 5
Chicago 16 9 3 4 1.88 12 3 1 15 15 9 10
Kansas 4 2 1 1 1.75 2 2 0 3 3 3 2
Dallas 7 3 3 1 1.71 6 1 0 6 5 3 5
NYRB 14 7 3 4 1.71 8 5 1 12 11 9 8
RSL 8 2 6 0 1.50 8 0 0 8 4 2 2
DC Utd 17 7 3 7 1.41 11 5 1 12 14 6 11
Orlando 6 2 2 2 1.33 4 2 0 6 5 3 2
San Jose 10 4 1 5 1.30 5 4 1 8 7 2 3
Toronto 21 7 5 9 1.24 12 9 0 17 16 10 18
Seattle 10 4 0 6 1.20 5 4 1 7 8 1 4
Portland 7 2 2 3 1.14 4 3 0 7 6 4 3
Columbus 10 3 2 5 1.10 4 4 2 5 3 2 3
Philadelphia 14 3 4 7 0.93 10 3 1 12 13 10 8
Vancouver 11 2 4 5 0.91 5 4 2 8 7 5 5
New England 14 4 0 10 0.86 6 4 4 7 8 4 5
Montreal 11 3 0 8 0.82 3 7 1 5 8 4 6
Houston 5 1 1 3 0.80 3 2 0 4 5 3 4
Colorado 9 1 2 6 0.56 4 3 2 6 4 2 2
NYCFC 9 1 2 6 0.56 3 4 2 6 6 5 7
Total 210 71 46 93 121 69 20 160 153 91 113

[jonnyg]

from my perspective > take into consideration that football data and analysis is only my hobby > over the last 10 years + we have seen very little advancement re football data and analysis > i am personally waiting for the next generation to come through and show us old chaps that there is more to life then laying the draw before a game starts

[jonnyg]

In 2014 in the MLS ( regular season ) in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 75% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 66%.

The home teams won 31.82%, 13.64% ended a draw and the away teams won 54.54%

41% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes.

0-1 half time added to the early away goal > MLS > 2014 > 60% ended UNDER 2.5 goals > 53.33% away wins , 13.33% ended a draw and 33.33% home wins < expectation of the home team fighting back

In 2015 in the MLS ( regular season ) in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 72% ended over 2.5 goals and 46% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 63%

The home teams won 39%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 41% < expectation of the home teams fighting back although lowered expectation of the games ending a draw.

43% produced a goal(s) + minutes

0-1 half time added to the early away goal > MLS 2015> 63% ended UNDER 2.5 goals > 58% away wins, 26% ended a draw and the home teams won 16%



MLS 2015 season where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band, the home teams scored the second goal of the game ( T+1) in 48%, no second goal in 9% and the away teams scored the second goal of the game in 43% and I think the bookmakers love people to think that the team losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to the score the next goal because there is no evidence to suggest that is correct.

The home teams won 77.2%, 11.4% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11.4%

82% ended over 2.5 goals and 41% ended over 3.5 goals .

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 68%

[Jukebox]

Betfair detailed market info on football outside of match odds is absent - possibly because it is so revealing.

[jonnyg]

MLS 2016 ( regular ) season where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band,


Seattle Sounders
2 - 1
Real Salt Lake
Á. Fernández 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
4' L. Mulholland
C. Roldan 31'
2 - 1

Chicago Fire
2 - 1
New England
M. de Leeuw 9'
1 - 0
1 - 1
43' D. Fagúndez
D. Accam 80'
2 - 1

New England
3 - 1
Sporting KC
K. Kamara 4'
1 - 0
1 - 1
49' D. Dwyer
K. Ellis (OG) 75'
2 - 1
J. Agudelo 83'
3 - 1


Columbus Crew
3 - 0
Chicago Fire
H. Afful 8'
1 - 0
Justin Meram 50'
2 - 0
D. Duka 59'
3 - 0

New York City
4 - 1
Chicago Fire
Jefferson Mena 8'
1 - 0
David Villa 9'
2 - 0
2 - 1
35' L. Solignac
S. Mendoza 44'
3 - 1
David Villa 83'
4 - 1

New York City
2 - 2
Dallas
T. McNamara 8'
1 - 0
1 - 1
20' M. Urruti
1 - 2
52' M. Barrios
K. Shelton 78'
2 - 2

Montreal Impact
1 - 4
Orlando City
D. Drogba 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
4' B. Shea
1 - 2
36' Kaká
1 - 3
54' Kaká (PG)
1 - 4
77' C. Rivas

New York City
1 - 0
LA Galaxy
David Villa 6'
1 - 0

Houston Dynamo
1 - 1
Toronto
C. Maidana 8'
1 - 0
1 - 1
24' J. Altidore

Chicago Fire
2 - 2
Orlando City
J. Goossens 6'
1 - 0
1 - 1
9' C. Larin
1 - 2
32' Kaká
R. Cociş 78'
2 - 2

DC United
2 - 0
Portland Timbers
S. Birnbaum 7'
1 - 0
L. Acosta 29'
2 - 0

Orlando City
1 - 3
Seattle Sounders
S. Hines 7'
1 - 0
1 - 1
14' C. Dempsey
1 - 2
37' C. Dempsey
1 - 3
48' C. Dempsey

Toronto
3 - 0
Columbus Crew
T. Endoh 8'
1 - 0
S. Giovinco 24'
2 - 0
J. Altidore 87'
3 - 0

Seattle Sounders
5 - 0
Dallas
C. Dempsey (PG) 6'
1 - 0
A. Ivanschitz 18'
2 - 0
J. Morris 22'
3 - 0
J. Jones 61'
4 - 0
C. Roldan 73'
5 - 0

Sporting KC
3 - 1
New York City
B. Feilhaber 8'
1 - 0
1 - 1
14' F. Lampard
J. Medranda 16'
2 - 1
I. Opara 51'
3 - 1

Vancouver Whit…
2 - 2
Colorado Rapids
K. Waston 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
59' K. Doyle
C. Techera (PG) 87'
2 - 1
2 - 2
90' A. Sjöberg

Toronto
1 - 0
Chicago Fire
J. Morrow 9'
1 - 0

New England
3 - 1
Columbus Crew
L. Nguyen 3'
1 - 0
W. Trapp (OG) 34'
2 - 0
2 - 1
42' O. Kamara
K. Kamara 71'
3 - 1

New York City
2 - 0
New York RB
J. Harrison 8'
1 - 0
David Villa 66'
2 - 0

Orlando City
3 - 2
Toronto
C. Larin 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
47' J. Hamilton
A. Winter 83'
2 - 1
2 - 2
90' J. Morrow
Kaká (PG) 90'
3 - 2

New York City
3 - 2
Philadelphia Union
F. Lampard 8'
1 - 0
David Villa 21'
2 - 0
A. Pirlo 50'
3 - 0
3 - 1
55' R. Alberg (PG)
3 - 2
88' F. Brillant (OG)

New York RB
3 - 0
Toronto
B. Wright-Phillips 4'
1 - 0
B. Wright-Phillips 25'
2 - 0
B. Wright-Phillips 27'
3 - 0

Portland Timbers
4 - 2
Vancouver Whit…
D. Váleri (PG) 4'
1 - 0
J. McInerney 29'
2 - 0
2 - 1
49' K. Manneh
D. Asprilla (PG) 78'
3 - 1
D. Nagbe 82'
4 - 1
4 - 2
84' P. Morales (PG)

Chicago Fire
1 - 0
Houston Dynamo
A. Álvarez 3'
1 - 0

Dallas
2 - 0
Seattle Sounders
M. Díaz (PG) 3'
1 - 0
M. Barrios 80'
2 - 0

Montreal Impact
1 - 1
Philadelphia Union
D. Drogba 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
24' C. Sapong

SJ Earthquakes
3 - 1
Houston Dynamo
A. Quintero 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
43' R. Clark
A. Godoy 50'
2 - 1
A. Quintero 70'
3 - 1

Philadelphia Union
2 - 2
LA Galaxy
V. Nogueira 4'
1 - 0
1 - 1
15' R. Rogers
1 - 2
47' M. Magee
K. Rosenberry 63'
2 - 2

New England
2 - 2
Orlando City
D. Fagúndez 7'
1 - 0
1 - 1
30' K. Molino
J. Agudelo 71'
2 - 1
2 - 2
90' C. Rivas

Montreal Impact
2 - 2
Colorado Rapids
D. Drogba 9'
1 - 0
1 - 1
47' S. Gashi
M. Tissot 50'
2 - 1
2 - 2
72' B. Burlin

Orlando City
2 - 2
New England
Kaká (PG) 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
37' T. Bunbury
K. Molino 90'
2 - 1
2 - 2
90' L. Nguyen (PG)

Columbus Crew
3 - 2
New York City
E. Finlay 7'
1 - 0
1 - 1
15' David Villa
K. Kamara 49'
2 - 1
Justin Meram 80'
3 - 1
3 - 2
87' David Villa (PG

Houston Dynamo
1 - 4
LA Galaxy
D. Horst 1'
1 - 0
1 - 1
4' G. dos Santos
1 - 2
21' B. Husidic
1 - 3
31' G. dos Santos
1 - 4
49' G. Zardes

Philadelphia Union
2 - 1
Orlando City
C. Sapong 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
43' A. Winter
T. Barnetta 90'
2 - 1

New York City
1 - 1
New England
T. McNamara 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
38' C. Tierney

Sporting KC
2 - 1
Vancouver Whit…
D. Dwyer 5'
1 - 0
D. Dwyer 41'
2 - 0
2 - 1
70' P. Morales (PG)

Houston Dynamo
5 - 0
Dallas
D. Horst 6'
1 - 0
M. Hedges (OG) 13'
2 - 0
R. Clark 23'
3 - 0
A. Wenger 27'
4 - 0
W. Bruin 85'
5 - 0

Orlando City
1 - 1
Chicago Fire
C. Larin 4'
1 - 0
1 - 1
14' D. Accam

[jonnyg]

38 games above . 74% ended over 2.5 goals and 55% ended over 3.5 goals

24-11-3

[jonnyg]

Where Have All the Goals Gone in the Bundesliga? response to Rory Smith of the New York Times ; ” Packing “

Posted on: April 9th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/spor ... .html?_r=0

Is Bundesliga average goal production a season in decline ?

This season in the Bundesliga the average goal production per game is 2.76 , last season 2.83, 2014-2015 2.75 2013-2014 3.16

Rory Smith advised that there has been a “subtle shift” in goal production in the Bundesliga when he simply wanted to discuss a new football metric

“Much of its work has focused on a metric it has developed called “packing,” which counts the number of players taken out of the game — outplayed, as Impect calls it — by a particular move, be it a dribble or a pass.”

Mr Smith et al have failed to acknowledge that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) in terms of the effect on accuracy as time decays.

In general the opening goal by the away team in the Bundesliga in the 0-20 minutes time band will result in acceleration of goal production and a high early away goal production in a season will raise the average goal production for the season.

2015/2016 2014/2015 2013/2014
Games 52 43 56
Over 2.5 75% 74% 80%
Over 3.5 56% 47% 61%

In the table above I have added all the games in the Bundesliga in the last 3 completed seasons where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band to define the % that ended over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals.

This season in Bundesliga in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band ;

2-3 0-2 2-2 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-1 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-4 1-1 2-5 1-3 0-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 2-1 3-3 1-5 1-3 3-1 0-2 <> 33 games with an average goal production of 3.24

Summary

In Bundesliga this season compared to previous seasons we are seeing a lower early away goal game production which as a result has effected the average goal production for the season.



after I wrote that blog response < we had a load of early goal games that produced a load of goals in Bundesliga

[jonnyg]

2016-2017 season in the Bundesliga where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes,

70% ended over 2.5 goals and 48% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%

37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

8-13-25 > away teams won 54%

GAME PATHWAY

2/46 0-1 FT

26/46 > 1-1 8-12-6 >away teams won 23%

18/46 > 0-2 0-1-17 > away teams won 94%

[jonnyg]

very few people have worked out that the average goal production in an individual league will be effected by the % of early goal games

[jonnyg]

Vasco da Gama
2 - 5
Corinthians View events More info
0 - 1
3' Marquinhos Gabriel
0 - 2
39' Jô
Luís Fabiano 46'
1 - 2
Luís Fabiano 48'
2 - 2
2 - 3
58' Maycon
2 - 4
84' Clayton
2 - 5
90' Clayton


how boring was this game ? > how does the time of the opening goal in an individual league effect accuracy as time decays ?

[jonnyg]

Vila Nova
2 - 0
América Mineiro
Alípio 3'
1 - 0
Geovane 90'
2 - 0

Criciúma
1 - 0
CRB
Caio 10'
1 - 0

Oeste
2 - 0
CRB
Júlio César 8'
1 - 0
Alexandro 82'
2 - 0

Guarani
2 - 0
Figueirense
Bruno Nazário 7'
1 - 0
Caique 77'
2 - 0

Santa Cruz
2 - 1
Guarani
Halef 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
79' Eliandro
Ricardo Bueno 84'
2 - 1

Guarani
2 - 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Eliandro 8'
1 - 0
Eliandro 54'
2 - 0

Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Oeste
Diogo Oliveira (PG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
90′ Marcus Vinícius

Joinville
1 – 0
Paraná
Fernando Viana 9′
1 – 0

Avaí
2 – 0
Goiás
Vitor 9′
1 – 0
Renato 90′
2 – 0

Londrina
1 – 0
Bahia
Anderson Leite 8′
1 – 0

Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Atlético GO
Ederson 8′
1 – 0
Ederson 78′
2 – 0




Criciúma
4 – 0
Oeste
Douglas Moreira 10′
1 – 0
Diego Giaretta 60′
2 – 0
Jheimy 64′
3 – 0
Caique Valdivia 68′
4 – 0

Tupi
1 – 1
Londrina
Octávio 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
85′ Safira

Atlético GO
2 – 0
Luverdense
Júnior Viçosa 10′
1 – 0
Michel 56′
2 – 0

Luverdense
4 – 0
Bragantino
Luiz Otavio 9′
1 – 0
Hugo 53′
2 – 0
Hugo 56′
3 – 0
Hugo (PG) 72′
4 – 0

Paysandu
2 – 0
Ceará
Gilvan 5′
1 – 0
Gilvan 66′
2 – 0


Bragantino
2 – 0
Joinville
Rafael Grampola 4′
1 – 0
Gabriel Dias 90′
2 – 0

Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Nenê 10′
1 – 0
Luan Garcia 71′
2 – 0


Ceará
1 – 0
Bahia
Rafael Costa 4′
1 – 0


Paysandu
1 – 0
Joinville
Jhonnatan 2′
1 – 0

Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Luverdense
Ramon 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ Jean Patrick

Tupi
5 – 1
Paysandu
Thiago Silvy 4′
1 – 0
Vinicius Kiss 62′
2 – 0
Marcos Serrato 68′
3 – 0
3 – 1
77′ Lucas
Recife 90′
4 – 1
Vinicius Kiss 90′
5 – 1


Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Bragantino
Felipe Gonçalves 8′
1 – 0
Ramon 57′
2 – 0

Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Paraná
Felipe Gonçalves 6′
1 – 0
Felipe Gonçalves 69′
2 – 0


Vila Nova
3 – 1
Bragantino
Robston 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
52′ Eliandro
Thiago Brito 59′
2 – 1
Robston 67′
3 – 1

Oeste
1 - 1
Criciúma
Ligger 6'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Maurinho

Vitória
2 - 1
Boa
Elton 9'
1 - 0
D. Escudero 56'
2 - 0
2 - 1
61' Felipe Alves

Bragantino
2 - 2
Macaé
Frauches (OG) 1'
1 - 0
1 - 1
55' Gedeil
Alan Mineiro (PG) 67'
2 - 1
2 - 2
78' Pipico

Paraná
1 - 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Rafael Costa 8'
1 - 0

Vitória
4 - 1
Bahia
Guilherme Mattis 5'
1 - 0
D. Escudero (PG) 64'
2 - 0
Rogerio 82'
3 - 0
3 - 1
87' M. Biancucchi
Robert 90'
4 - 1


América Mineiro
1 - 0
Atlético GO
Mancini (PG) 2'
1 - 0

Náutico
1 - 1
Paysandu
Pedro Carmona 5'
1 - 0
1 - 1
61' Yago Picachu

Atlético GO
2 - 0
Náutico
Juninho 6'
1 - 0
Arthur 53'
2 - 0

Náutico
2 - 0
Ceará
Ronaldo Alves (PG) 3'
1 - 0
Willian Magrão 51'
2 - 0

Vitória
4 - 1
Bragantino
D. Escudero 8'
1 - 0
Elton 47'
2 - 0
Rogerio 51'
3 - 0
3 - 1
74' Chico
Diogo Mateus 86'
4 - 1

Ceará
2 - 1
Portuguesa
Sandro 9'
1 - 0
1 - 1
62' Jussa
Brinner (OG) 64'
2 - 1

Boa
1 - 0
Oeste
Fernando Karanga 10'
1 - 0

Joinville
1 - 0
Bragantino
Rogerio 4'
1 - 0

Boa
3 - 0
Vila Nova
Fernando Karanga 3'
1 - 0
Fernando Karanga 56'
2 - 0
Tomas Bastos 82'
3 - 0

Náutico
2 - 1
ABC
Sassá 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
50' Rodrigo Silva
Sassá (PG) 86'
2 - 1

ABC
2 - 1
Santa Cruz
Somália 5'
1 - 0
Sueliton 49'
2 - 0
2 - 1
73' Léo Gamalho

Santa Cruz
2 - 0
Atlético GO
Wescley 8'
1 - 0
Pingo 90'
2 - 0

Oeste
2 - 1
Boa
Serginho 2'
1 - 0
Serginho 54'
2 - 0
2 - 1
80' Clébson

América Mineiro
2 - 0
Luverdense
Mancini 9'
1 - 0
Obina 51'
2 - 0

Ponte Preta
2 - 0
Joinville
Roni 7'
1 - 0
Rodinei 89'
2 - 0

ABC
1 - 1
Náutico
Lúcio Flávio 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
62' Paulinho

Paraná
2 - 0
Náutico
Giancarlo 7'
1 - 0
Leonardo Luiz (OG) 53'
2 - 0

ABC
1 - 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Dênis Marques 10'
1 - 0

Vasco da Gama
3 - 0
Atlético GO
Douglas 4'
1 - 0
Marlon 71'
2 - 0
Marlon 88'
3 - 0

Bragantino
2 - 0
Atlético GO View events More info
Lincom 4'
1 - 0
Cesinha 62'
2 - 0