Straight Backs and Lays Versus Trading - and Zenyatta

[Zenyatta]

Hi,

I'm new to BetAngel.

I'm not so sure I see the rationale for trading on such short-term events as horse racing. If you know whether the price of a horse is too long or short your optimum strategy is simply to outright lay or back it - doing an offset back/lay trade is actually reducing your advantage.

For the In-Play, again, there is no need for offset trade as such, you would get maximum profit simply by outright backing and laying at the right times (provided you know whether the price is too long or short - and if you don't know this, trading won't help you).

I wondered if someone could explain what they think the justification of trading on horse racing actually is?

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My username is named after champion (undefeated) US racing legend Zenyatta, here's a legendary betting/racing moment:

End of last year, Breeders Cup, USA, Zenyatta was the only female horse facing a field of champion males for the time (including UK hotpot 'Rip Van Winkle'), Zenyatta was a distant last on the home turn with a wall of horses in front of her - but she still blew them all away with a finish so good the American crowd at the track were on their feet giving a standing ovation for that one - legendary. Despite being undefeated and a clear favorite in the States, Zenyatta was paying a crazy $5 on the Betfair exchange a few days before the race, and you would have made a spectacular killing in Inplay too.

Watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud_XPH6Eix4

This illustrates my point. A big straight back of Zenyatta at $5 on Betfair pre-off, and then another big unloading of your cash on her Inplay on the home turn would have earned you the same amount of money as a whole year of trading.

[CaerMyrddin]

Hello, great race a pleasure to watch.

Still one example doesn't prove you right. Should Zenyatta not win and you would simply lose your money.

If you backed him at some value point and waited to close your position when the market price was more accurate, you would simply make a profit without being exposed to the underlying event.

If you had a back bet on her, I bet you would feel very unconfortable (to say the least) to watch such a poor start from Zenyatta...

[to75ne]

Zenyatta wondered if someone could explain what they think the justification of trading on horse racing actually is?

Almost no risk of losing your bank. (as long s you don’t go in play)

Not having to read the form book and or, know anything about horse racing.

Winning no matter who wins or losses.

Being able to churn your bank over quite safely several times in a 10 minute stint.

Being able to spread your losses across all runners, thereby negating any serious drain on your bank.

Not having to listen to the inane drivel from tv/radio pundits/commentators.

Im sure other people will stick er few more reasons in.

[Zenyatta]

I can see trading does have some advantages, but I'm inclined to think it more comes into its own for longer term events like soccer, football or tennis matches for example. As I said, for short term events like horse races you can already turn over your bank quickly simply by straight backs and lays.

Another couple of good recent examples of straight backs/lay killings on the UK races (pleased to say I got on both of these):

Denman: Backed down to 1.10, In-Play it was going reasonably well, but clearly not as well as expected, a long way out the race caller noted that Denman was having trouble kicking clear of the pack as he shoud have done- a straight lay of 1000s at that point would have risked only 100s in libabilities - 1000s were there for the taking, easy.

Zaynar: Again backed down to a ridiciously low amount (1.10 was it?), it had a strong opponent in Quwetwo, who a long way from the finish was clearly relishing the conditions, traveling very well and was going to be very hard to catch (all clearly stated by race caller). Risking only 100s, you could have made easy 1000s with straight lays on Zaynar at that point.

[Alpha322]

Zenyatta wondered if someone could explain what they think the justification of trading on horse racing actually is?

Almost no risk of losing your bank. (as long s you don’t go in play)

Not having to read the form book and or, know anything about horse racing.

Winning no matter who wins or losses.

Being able to churn your bank over quite safely several times in a 10 minute stint.

Being able to spread your losses across all runners, thereby negating any serious drain on your bank.

Not having to listen to the inane drivel from tv/radio pundits/commentators.

Im sure other people will stick er few more reasons in.

Spot on Post although i have a interest in horse racing still which makes all of your points even more valid to me because i dont have to deal with trying to find the winner anymore

[gutuami]

trading is the same straight backs and lays only for a shorter period of time. The longer the time bet stays in the market the higher the risk. So, you get closer to gambling. In my opinion if you gamble more then you're trading then you won't survive unless you're a professional gambler. Bf markets are different from other markets. They appear and disappear every day creating much more opportunities. All comes down to choosing your entry and exit points. The exit points always have a default option - when the market settles.
There's a post on the Peter's blog called The birth of a strategy. That's illustrating the point of being an 'active betfair' user.
btw I favorited the video. Thanks.
Nice run

[CaerMyrddin]

I bet Zenyatta has a back bet on Zenyatta for tomorrow, no matter the amount. Good luck then to both Zenyattas

[Exacta]

You pay less commission when trading and can trade more than once in a race.

[mister man]

agree with to75ne

also on the radio etc pundits.

have you noticed if you listen to b/fair radio.

if the daily "expert" gets a forecast right its big congrats by the host after the race, if as is more common he gets it wrong, its just not mentioned at all.

good luck all.

[Zenyatta]

I bet Zenyatta has a back bet on Zenyatta for tomorrow, no matter the amount. Good luck then to both Zenyattas

Actually, I'm not so sure that my namesake is good value this year, I think 'Lookin at Lucky' is strong competition at good odds. Still, nice horse Zenyatta. Never discount the mighty Zenyatta

[CaerMyrddin]

When I looked to the price I thought that, that's why I added the 'no matter the amount'.

I won't be trading this one, as I can't get a decent feed, can anyone help me getting a streaming just to enjoy the race?