Take SP

[Matteo72]

Hello,

I have a lay bet @3. I would like to automatically close my position at SP with equal profit on each horses, it's possible ?

I know it's possible to take a SP bet but the profit is not equal on each runners..I'm not in front of my PC to do that unfortunately

[jimibt]

Matteo,

Two ways spring to mind:

1. Just green up instead at 5 seconds before the off
2. Take SP as you are doing, followed immediately by running a greening rule.

The second option might give you a little more flexibility as you could (if it was your aim) attempt to score a green green inside the 1st xx seconds rather than closing the trade purely as the price stands at the off. Of course, the safest option in my opinion is #1 above as this would happen before the race starts and thus would have locked in the profit (or loss) before there was any major risk to the price.

[Matteo72]

Thanx for reply, i will try the second option but the first is the safest option ! Thanx

[ShaunWhite]

Matteo,

Two ways spring to mind:

1. Just green up instead at 5 seconds before the off

Remember though Matteo that '5 seconds before the off' is actually 5 seconds before the advertised start time. It could easily be 5 minutes before the start of the race on days with the usual delays. I'm not sure if that affects your strategy.

Because of this I'd be more likely myself to choose option 2, lock yourself into SP, and hopefully not see too many problems greening your SP hedged position (some will be up, some down) just after the race starts. The thing to remember there, is that at race time + X seconds, odds of 1000 (failed to leave the stall etc) with be much more likely than going to extremes the other way.

Nothing is ever straightforward

[Matteo72]

Thanx for reply !

Today, if i stop 3 seconds before the off, i have 307€ profits. If i wait to SP, i've 490€...frustrating !

It's not very fun to stay in front of your PC just to sell at SP and green up

[jimibt]

Thanx for reply !

Today, if i stop 3 seconds before the off, i have 307€ profits. If i wait to SP, i've 490€...frustrating !

It's not very fun to stay in front of your PC just to sell at SP and green up

if you can describe your dilemma more clearly, i reckon *we* can solve it... of course, as i always observe and lament, we can see and contextualize 1000 things in an instant, whereas a rule can only (at best) treat things in a linear way... we can beat that tho, IF we can break things down into their simplest atomic parts. this is where you'll make the biggest gains and potentially be able to automate to the (n)th degree - if you're able to identify the subtle edges at the cross over stage from pre to IP.

[Matteo72]

I lay at crossover points. Example, i lay @3 for 500€. So, my liability is 1000€

If i close my position 3 seconds before the off, i close @ 3.5 = 67.8€ profits. But if i close my position at SP, it's @3.74 = +93.9€ for the same trade !

The problem is, how it's ^possible to calculate a stake automatically to close my position @SP ? This is possible to automatcally greening up at a specific time, but it's not possible to automatically greenin up at SP, why ?

[Matteo72]

if it's not possible to greening up @SP, it's possible to greening up automatically when the market turn in play ? it's not the same thing but maybe it's a solution ?

[jimibt]

if it's not possible to greening up @SP, it's possible to greening up automatically when the market turn in play ? it's not the same thing but maybe it's a solution ?

matteo - go for TAKESP at the off, followed in short order by greening across the field. at worst, you'll miss a tick or two, at best you'll accomplish the same on the reverse. in short, for your strategy it sounds like you wanna stay put as long as possible in the pre-race market, but want to green asap IP. this is your best compromise imho.

[Matteo72]

Thanx, i will try this !

[ShaunWhite]

Today, if i stop 3 seconds before the off, i have 307€ profits. If i wait to SP, i've 490€...frustrating !

And tomorrow it will be the other way round.

Unless you've discovered some magic bias between +3s and actual off time (and I very much doubt that you have), these things will balance out.

It will be very interesting see the difference over the next several hundred races. I'm guessing your frustration won't be with the size of your profits, it will be with the size of your losses, unless your strategy is a lot more complex than just laying at x-overs. I hope your 500 euro stake was just an example, because that's a pretty big stake for a strategy which is obvioulsy still being tested.

[Matteo72]

I think I'll stay on 3s because the races follow each other, and I can't have two trade on two different races (liability..)

I have tested my strategy for 3 or 4 years, so I know the weak points of this one

[Matteo72]

I have another question

It's possible to place at a defined time a lay bet at a specific entry point ?

Ex : 1h before the off, i would to place a conditionnal bet -> 10 mins before the off, i would like to place a lay bet @3.45. If the odds is under 3.45, do not place the bet, just wait until the odds reaches @3.45

[ShaunWhite]

I think I'll stay on 3s because the races follow each other, and I can't have two trade on two different races (liability..)

I have tested my strategy for 3 or 4 years, so I know the weak points of this one

So you've been testing this for 3 or 4 years and found you lose out between 3s and SP? If so, surely the answer is to increase your liability for a couple of minutes to cover 2 races, rather than taking a much worse return by playing them 1 by 1?