The Winter Derby - lay of the day trade??!!??

[JollyGreen]

It's the winter Derby today 3:35 Ling field, one of the better if not the best races at Lingfield on the AW surface.

The favourite is Tranquil Tiger and is trading around 3.75 which is far too low for a race of this type. I am not saying this can't win...well in a way I suppose I am!!

This horse is very quirky to say the least and he is not one to trust - a dodge pot as I call them! he had everything in his favour last time out and he cruised up to the leader on the bridle looking like an easy winner. Despite this he only just won in the shadow of the post and he looked reluctant to go past. They may well have ironed that out on the gallops at home but I think he is just that type of horse. In human terms he would be the bully in a group - the sort who likes to act the king but fails to deliver when push comes to shove.

This type of horse needs to be in charge and things have to go his way but in this race he will be challenged by some hardened campaigners. This means he will have to work if he wants the victory and I am not sure he will perform.

If you play in running then be very careful about taking a short price because he may look good 2 furlongs from home and not go through with this effort. You could back him pre-race with a view to laying him off in running as he should travel well.

I just feel that when punters wake up and start to hear about his quirks, the media shows some of his recent victories, they may start laying him. The current price of 3.75 is low enough bit it may get closer to 3.50-3.60 and then I feel it will stop. If the layers get to hear of the quirks in the build (hopefully C4 will show his last race and warn punters) then the price could drift and I would not be surprised to see it get to 4.00 and possibly a real drift (come on C4 TV) to push it out towards 4.50.

I think Dalradian Stotsfold and Palladio will hustle this favourite and he may throw in the towel, I for one would not take less than 5.00 about him winning this race!

Good luck

EDIT at 08:52. I posted this earlier today and I have just noticed that Pricewise has tipped this horse That could mean it gets a bit lower than normal but that should work in our favour as the risk is lower too! I still think he's a dodge pot and if he really spits the dummy he may not make the frame...now that would be nice for place layers!

[Bet Angel]

Very heavily backed and wins!

100320 - Winter derby winner graph.png

[preracetrader]

Thats horse racing!

[JollyGreen]

It was a crazy race and a crazy build up. This horse was tipped up by Pricewise which does explain why it was heavily backed. I made a loss because I laid it close to the off and realised pretty quickly that the other jockeys were on a different planet.

Before people think it is sour grapes let me explain a bit more. First I admit I got it wrong in respect of the horse winning and me losing money. I can accept that but I read the race and the horse correctly and here is why. If the others actually spent some time trying to determine how they could beat the favourite they may have produced a different result. They should have known that the only way to maximise their chance was to give Tranquil Tiger a hard time in the race. That means they needed to make him work for his position but instead they allowed him an easy position where he could just sit in behind and travel as he liked. This was yet another occasion where the jockeys in behind on the fancied horses thought they were on a turbocharged motorbike and could just accelerate past the leaders. Tranquil Tiger was given a soft tow into the home bend and then allowed to take it up at his leisure. Yes, he moved nicely into the lead but you will also notice that when he hit the front he dossed around. Then the jockeys in behind realised they were riding a horse, the turbo button didn't exist and the penny dropped all too late. They charged after him and were closing fast as the line approached. They just couldn't close fast enough. The credit goes to Tom Queally who rode the perfect race on Tranquil Tiger but that should never have been allowed to happen.

If this horse runs again in a similar race with a big field then I will be looking to lay him again. The next time though I might drop a message to connections of the opposition with a heads-up.