Crazy spikes
-
fink nottle
- Posts: 20
- Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:42 am
Noticed some yesterday, more of the same would be nice when you're a few orders spread about! I guess a punter/bookmaker chucking in big bets on the big meetings.
I don't know but I've had a really bad day today, 1st losing day for a while and I did in style, £464.52 down! 
Nearly all from the last 3 races, for some reason I was using bigger stakes then normal and just did some really bad trades and some silly mistakes.
Nearly all from the last 3 races, for some reason I was using bigger stakes then normal and just did some really bad trades and some silly mistakes.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Hi
I decided to have a few hours off from my day job this afternoon as I was up to date...so i thought "I also manually trade today"...wish I hadnt bothered!
I stopped after the third race or so and went and had a walk around the garden!! Ha!!
Regards
Peter
I decided to have a few hours off from my day job this afternoon as I was up to date...so i thought "I also manually trade today"...wish I hadnt bothered!
I stopped after the third race or so and went and had a walk around the garden!! Ha!!
Regards
Peter
-
andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
The "dutching" of these runners have been going on for some days now. It can be a pain when you get caught but it is possible to take advantage of it as well.
Unlucky with the losses but in the grand scheme of things of the year it isn't a disaster. I am sure you will have it back in no time at all.
I would hope they bugger off soon enough though as I am finding it frustrating.
Peter if you read this it would be interesting to hear your view of it?
Unlucky with the losses but in the grand scheme of things of the year it isn't a disaster. I am sure you will have it back in no time at all.
I would hope they bugger off soon enough though as I am finding it frustrating.
Peter if you read this it would be interesting to hear your view of it?
Wow that's nasty mate. I wouldn't be surprised a lot of it wasn't coming from the course but there isn't enough lay cash on the exchanges to soak it up like there would often be on these kind of races that normally would find themselves on terrestrial tv. Plus there were a lot of delays today to previous races especially at Ripon. I guess the counter spikes in the other direction might just be savvy traders. That's the only theory I can come up with, if it's true then we can expect the same tommorrow...rhysmr2 wrote:I don't know but I've had a really bad day today, 1st losing day for a while and I did in style, £464.52 down!
Nearly all from the last 3 races, for some reason I was using bigger stakes then normal and just did some really bad trades and some silly mistakes.
In the nicest possible way, I'm glad it wasn't just me! 
I had thought I'd played a stinker today and yesterday (losing 100 pounds out of a 150 pound bank, despite being generally quite cautious). But it looks like I'm in good company!
It's like the market has been far more intelligent than usual these last couple of days! It's felt like I was playing against a super-intelligent machine which thought:
"I'll head down a bit. Then when people put in back orders, I'll lay them before turning around and cashing in when they close their trades!".
Peter - How did you get on today?
Jeff
I had thought I'd played a stinker today and yesterday (losing 100 pounds out of a 150 pound bank, despite being generally quite cautious). But it looks like I'm in good company!It's like the market has been far more intelligent than usual these last couple of days! It's felt like I was playing against a super-intelligent machine which thought:
"I'll head down a bit. Then when people put in back orders, I'll lay them before turning around and cashing in when they close their trades!".
Peter - How did you get on today?
Jeff
rhysmr2 wrote:I don't know but I've had a really bad day today, 1st losing day for a while and I did in style, £464.52 down!
Nearly all from the last 3 races, for some reason I was using bigger stakes then normal and just did some really bad trades and some silly mistakes.
It's strange as I have felt totally in control today and had a good day, although got caught in out in the 1840 at Kempton with the spikes and dropped £23.
Volume has been good the past two days although it has droppped off this evening - the stakes I can put through is 20/25% of my normal and is alot riskier.
Time for me to do something else this evening instead
Volume has been good the past two days although it has droppped off this evening - the stakes I can put through is 20/25% of my normal and is alot riskier.
Time for me to do something else this evening instead
-
Sandbagger666
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2010 8:44 pm
I am very new to all of this and so forgive me if I'm missing something completely but isn't betfair trading a zero sum game? I'm sure I read in another thread that 80-90% of Betfair volume is traders so if thats the case it seems to me that if I'm going to have a good day then another trader needs to have a bad one. I guess there was a time when scalpers were just shaving the punter's profits but no longer surely? Aren't we all just trying to outwit each other, particularly as Betfair actually offers diminishing value for favourite backers compared with the online bookies? So basically do I just take it that its been a bad day for BA traders but good for others or as I say am I completely missing something?
If I win 5 pounds off you, and then you win 5 pounds off me, we almost break even. I say 'almost' because Betfair takes their cut out of each transaction. The phrase 'the house always wins' could have been invented for Betfair!
Jeff
Jeff
Sandbagger666 wrote:I am very new to all of this and so forgive me if I'm missing something completely but isn't betfair trading a zero sum game? I'm sure I read in another thread that 80-90% of Betfair volume is traders so if thats the case it seems to me that if I'm going to have a good day then another trader needs to have a bad one. I guess there was a time when scalpers were just shaving the punter's profits but no longer surely? Aren't we all just trying to outwit each other, particularly as Betfair actually offers diminishing value for favourite backers compared with the online bookies? So basically do I just take it that its been a bad day for BA traders but good for others or as I say am I completely missing something?
-
enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
It has been estimated that 75% of money matched are traders opening and closing trades. All this new traders created a new scenario for some BIG PUNTERS who will manipulate the weight of money to trick the majority of traders ( the fishing net strategy). Only few experts traders have the aknowledge and enough funds to stick successfully with their own strategys, changing gears when they need to, with or without those big punters trying to manipulate the market.....hopefully traders will lern enough to fight this war even...good luck all
If you look at my post on another thread, can't remember which one, when you put a large order through the market there doesn't seem to be many big takers out there. so I think it's difficult to work out exactly how many traders vs punters are out really there. Unfortunately we will never know unless Betfair release the data, which I doubt they will.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
hgodden wrote:rhysmr2 wrote:I wouldn't be surprised a lot of it wasn't coming from the course but there isn't enough lay cash on the exchanges to soak it up like there would often be on these kind of races that normally would find themselves on terrestrial tv. Plus there were a lot of delays today to previous races especially at Ripon. I guess the counter spikes in the other direction might just be savvy traders. That's the only theory I can come up with, if it's true then we can expect the same tommorrow...
OK so its happened at Ayr and Thrisk now so I guess that can't be true. I suppose no one really knows what's going on then...