how do we compete with someone like this?

[cyxstudio]

Starlizard represented a shift away from taking bets into advising on them. The company is a consultancy that offers proprietary odds analysis to rich clients looking to make smart, high-stakes bets. These high-rollers then use Starlizard’s internally generated odds to identify “value” bets – instances in which the retail bookmaking market has underestimated or overestimated a team. In these cases, the risk-reward ratio is swayed in the bettor’s favour.

Starlizard helped pioneer a new, corporate approach to professional gambling, more closely resembling an investment bank or hedge fund than a bookmaker.

About 160 workers spend their days crunching statistics, building computer models, and doing huge deals on the other side of the world.

Some are fresh out of university, but ages range right up to the mid-40s. The mix of genders and races is diverse – all that matters is a razor-sharp understanding of the betting market and a head for statistics.

The company is split into four teams, each performing a specific role in the generation of odds. One generates data, another crunches that data into odds, a third decides which bets to take based on those odds, and a fourth places those bets on behalf of clients with bookmakers in Asia.

In the Camden office there are about 30 football researchers who generate internal data. They do this by watching matches and recording things like goal-scoring opportunities or shots on target.


A former employee told Business Insider: “Every aspect of football that you could think of was taken into consideration. I guess that’s why they’re so good at what they do. The weather, morale, anyone related to the club, [they] would be analysed under the microscope. It was pretty impressive.”

http://www.thejournal.ie/tony-bloom-sta ... 8-Feb2016/

[ruthlessimon]

But imagine that on the ladder.

In comes their £100,000 bet - they've done all the modelling, they've done all the fundamental analysis, & now they've highlighted the value. If we can get in as close to their bet as possible, we directly benefit from their hard work. Now I have vastly oversimplified that - but that to me is where our edge is - spotting the smart fundamental money & following it.

[spreadbetting]

Sounds no different than a boiler room selling penny shares back in the 80's I'd guess most of those 160 staff are on the telephone convincing clients of today's dead cert.

[Euler]

But imagine that on the ladder.

In comes their £100,000 bet - they've done all the modelling, they've done all the fundamental analysis, & now they've highlighted the value. If we can get in as close to their bet as possible, we directly benefit from their hard work. Now I have vastly oversimplified that - but that to me is where our edge is - spotting the smart fundamental money & following it.

You can see most big players in the market, as when you operate on scale you introduce new problems to the mix.

[Euler]

Star lizard are one of three major footy syndicates that operate in London, there are others but smaller in scale or more niche.

I had three amazing coincidences that led me to their door. They do a number of things, but essentially are value bettors, but on a different level than most other people and in different ways.

Somebody who supplies data to them was surprised that I already had quantified something that they were buying in. It just goes to show you that there are opportunities everywhere. Whatever your size.

[stueytrader]

Also, that article is pretty old - so if it was a big deal surely already been and done so....?

[PeterLe]

There are always going to be teams like this and they have one approach.
However, a good case in point is Psychoff. He is a one man team sitting in his apartment in Southampton who has just racked up £100K in profits on the World Cup (Ive followed his every recommendation and made a small profit (A few hundred Not £100K!)
However, it goes to show that the best approach is to do your own thing and forget about what others are doing
Regards
Peter

[Wolf1877]

However, a good case in point is Psychoff. He is a one man team sitting in his apartment in Southampton who has just racked up £100K in profits on the World Cup

How come so many of the players in professional gambling are based in Southampton? Not a big place in the overall scheme of things.

[brimson25]

There are always going to be teams like this and they have one approach.
However, a good case in point is Psychoff. He is a one man team sitting in his apartment in Southampton who has just racked up £100K in profits on the World Cup (Ive followed his every recommendation and made a small profit (A few hundred Not £100K!)
However, it goes to show that the best approach is to do your own thing and forget about what others are doing
Regards
Peter

I'm really interested in this guy. Wonder how he does it.

[Dallas]

There are always going to be teams like this and they have one approach.
However, a good case in point is Psychoff. He is a one man team sitting in his apartment in Southampton who has just racked up £100K in profits on the World Cup (Ive followed his every recommendation and made a small profit (A few hundred Not £100K!)
However, it goes to show that the best approach is to do your own thing and forget about what others are doing
Regards
Peter

I'm really interested in this guy. Wonder how he does it.

He did start a thread on here once
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13043

[brimson25]

Cheers. I really appreciate your skill of popping up with a relevant helpful response to whatever half-digested query I've just blurted out.

Thanks!

[spreadbetting]

There are always going to be teams like this and they have one approach.
However, a good case in point is Psychoff. He is a one man team sitting in his apartment in Southampton who has just racked up £100K in profits on the World Cup (Ive followed his every recommendation and made a small profit (A few hundred Not £100K!)
However, it goes to show that the best approach is to do your own thing and forget about what others are doing
Regards
Peter

I'm really interested in this guy. Wonder how he does it.

He seems to be a very good judge of the game and makes his decisions based on the state of how the teams are performing on the pitch. Plays the overs markets and only goes in when he sees value and is prepared to let his profits run rather than cash out for a quick buck. Also seems to scalp to keep hs hand in whilst waiting for value bets to crop up.

Think Peterle posted up his discord page earlier, worth looking at if only to see how he operates but at the end of the day it does appear he's a very good judge of the game and prepared to stand by his decisions. https://t.co/XCl1Ru2jYm

[Euler]

Psychoff and I go back to 2009 when he came to visit me, so I know him pretty well, I don't doubt his results. Ultimately you shouldn't compare yourself with someone if you don't know specifically what they are doing, as it's not a like for like comparison. Also, the variability in a strategy may lead to exceptional payoffs now and again. So approach everything with balance. I once posted a £30k day, but that was after a -£15k the day before. But variability is fine if you are up over a long sequence of events.

[Euler]

The really interesting dynamic in all this is between Startlizard and Smartodds as they are ultra-competitive, but there are others in the same sphere.

[brimson25]

Psychoff and I go back to 2009 when he came to visit me, so I know him pretty well, I don't doubt his results. Ultimately you shouldn't compare yourself with someone if you don't know specifically what they are doing, as it's not a like for like comparison. Also, the variability in a strategy may lead to exceptional payoffs now and again. So approach everything with balance. I once posted a £30k day, but that was after a -£15k the day before. But variability is fine if you are up over a long sequence of events.

You must have a zen-like calm to keep it together post £15k loss, and before the £30k the next day....