One-day only: Demonstration of Form-Based Trading

[Zenyatta]

This thread is a result of the debates in the 'Back-To-Lay' thread. Just once (this Saturday), I'm going to post all my selections here, about 1 hour before the days races start. The object is hopefully to demonstrate that form-based trading is far more effective than cold trading (trading based solely on market movements).

I will try to give at least 15 BACK selections (no more than 1-per-race), based solely on my study of the form. For each selection, I will then then attempt to trade it at 20-ticks, Back-To-Lay (20 ticks is a profit margin of perhaps 40% on average). All Selections are kept In-Play.

I will sum up the results at the end, listing prices, strike rate and ROI. I hope to show that I can do 20x better than the cold traders, with at least a 10% ROI for my form-based trading, versus less than 0.5% ROI for their cold-trading.

I urge everyone to put their money on my selections

[Online Trader]

Zenyatta

I wish you every success with this however I think the following comment is very irresponsible as it may encourage inexperienced novices to part with money that they cannot afford to loose

I urge everyone to put their money on my selections

[sweetybt]

sounds good, how much study do you put in?

I am afraid I will be out with the kids most of the day so will miss this demo.

I am just trying to earn a few crusts on the Oz racing this morning. I need to as I just bought a house last week.

good luck

[lord]

We have the opportunity to "form trade" or "number trade" on Bet Angel. They are not mutually exclusive and both along with hundreds of other strategys can be brought to bear. I actually do study the form but
as for following all of todays "tips" blindly, that as others have said is irresponsible.

[PeterLe]

This thread is a result of the debates in the 'Back-To-Lay' thread. Just once (this Saturday), I'm going to post all my selections here, about 1 hour before the days races start. The object is hopefully to demonstrate that form-based trading is far more effective than cold trading (trading based solely on market movements).

I will try to give at least 15 BACK selections (no more than 1-per-race), based solely on my study of the form. For each selection, I will then then attempt to trade it at 20-ticks, Back-To-Lay (20 ticks is a profit margin of perhaps 40% on average). All Selections are kept In-Play.

I will sum up the results at the end, listing prices, strike rate and ROI. I hope to show that I can do 20x better than the cold traders, with at least a 10% ROI for my form-based trading, versus less than 0.5% ROI for their cold-trading.

I urge everyone to put their money on my selections

Zenyatta - Good Luck!
I can see that when you say "I urge everyone to put their money on my selections..." you are doing so tongue in cheek! So good luck...

[lewismbet]

I look forward to this with interest as I am a 'cold-trader' however I think you are somewhat missing the point with your ROI figures. ROI is useless only in relation to turnover. even a 0.5% ROI can yield good profits if you are trading the favourite and can recycle your money multiple times on a single race.

However if you can do as you say with form study then I congratulate you as to me it is all a black-art, best of luck.

[Zenyatta]

OK, here's goes. I picked a very tough day unfortunately, but I've done my best. Three meetings are covered (Newmarket, Thirsk and Uttoxeter), and I've made a total of 17 selections. The number in brackets is the early line odds of the runner.

Newmarket

1.55 Shamali (7)
2.25 [None]
3.05 Elusive Pimpernel (8)
3.40 Amor Propre (4)
4.15 Horseradish (5)
4.50 Rashaad (6)
5.25 Balducci (10)

--

Thirsk

1.45 [None]
2.20 Royal Swain (5)
2.55 [None]
3.30 Glenridden (7)
4.05 Mirrored (12)
4.40 LoveInTheSand (11)
5.15 IGoYouGo (7)
5.45 Ryan Style (6)

---

Uttoxeter

1.35 [None]
2.05 Federstar (10)
2.40 Ossman (5)
3.15 [None]
3.50 Hilfiger (4)
4.25 Burren Legend (8)
5.00 [None]
5.30 Richard The Third (6.5)

[Mug]

Thanks, will have a play with small stakes. Good luck every body and thanks for sharing the information.

[Zenyatta]

Results:

Overall, out of my 17 selections, there were 12 green-ups (each for 20-ticks pre-race or In-Play), and 5 wipe outs. Only a 70% strike rate, but with margins of 40-50% for a green-up overall I ended the day hovering around break-even. Unfortunately Uttoxeter was a bit tough for me, 4 of the 5 wipe-outs occurred there. However, the prices of nearly all my picks shortened considerably pre-race, comfortably beating SP prices. All in all a bit inconclusive today however.

[Iron]

I think this is a bit like the technical vs fundamental analysis debate in financial markets trading. There are people who make a very good living out of both, so neither can be said to be more effective than the other.

That said, I prefer to be able to look at a chart and decide instantly how to trade it, rather than spending hours and hours doing research.

Jeff

Results:

Overall, out of my 17 selections, there were 12 green-ups (each for 20-ticks pre-race or In-Play), and 5 wipe outs. Only a 70% strike rate, but with margins of 40-50% for a green-up overall I ended the day hovering around break-even. Unfortunately Uttoxeter was a bit tough for me, 4 of the 5 wipe-outs occurred there. However, the prices of nearly all my picks shortened considerably pre-race, comfortably beating SP prices. All in all a bit inconclusive today however.