It's back to the Chester today for the tight turns of the Roodeye. I am slightly deflated because a horse I have been waiting for all season has a bad draw in the Chester Cup and it could be too much of a disadvantage in what looks a competitive race.
This is such a tight track that the horses are virtually on the turn all the time. If you have to go wide then you need to cover more ground, if a horse swerves and causes a few to take evasive action then it can spell the end of your chance. The draw is vital at this track so I'll have to check the prices again.
In the 1:45 the draw will be all important again and Gay Kelleway's Primo Lady has the plum draw in stall 1. The Racing Post comment says she is bred to be precocious but I don't quite understand that - perhaps they know something I don't. She has a pedigree that suggests she'll certainly get further than the minimum distance but these are 2 year old horses so they wouldn't be expected to go much beyond sprint distances.
I was keen to oppose Bathwick Bear whose price is too skinny at 2.56. I am not a huge fan of collateral form but you will find that on a form line through Scarlet Rocks there appears to be a huge anomaly in the betting. Primo Lady crushed Scarlet Rocks with ease when they met yet Bathwick Bear had to work hard to beat the same horse by just 1 length. Now those two horses are from the David Evans stable so perhaps they know something the general public are not privy to. If you check the weights today then Primo Lady is in receipt of 11lbs and that's a lot to a 2yo!!
My only concern is missing the break.
It's no good having the plum draw in stall one if you go to sleep in the stalls and find yourself behind a wall of horses. It has to be a concern but this horse has had a race, I'm sure connections will have done work in starting stalls and she clearly looks progressive.This could well be an all or nothing affair. If it misses the break we're probably done for. If she jumps quickly from the stalls then I can see her scraping the paint off the inside rail and pulling away from the field....we have to think positive
I would say that 4.00 is a fair price but we may get closer to 4.30 later - fingers crossed. I would suggest this is a 1.5 shot to fill one of the places which makes 3.75-3.80 the probable low price where value starts to disappear. Remember this is my judgement of the odds and respective value, I am not trying to suggest I am right. What I am saying is that based on my assessment and experience these are the odds I would look for to make a long term profit. For example, if this horse was the 2.56 favourite then I would not be getting involved. Because the start is so vital it puts greater emphasis on getting value for your money. That applies to straight bets, in running trades etc.
2:15 Chester
The favourite in this race is Myplacelater. This filly really caught my eye on its last run when she flew home to beat some smart colts. I watch re-runs of the day's racing and one of the things I look for are fast finishing horses, something the Americans call "closers". It's not rocket science, you just check the time they take to run the last furlong and this will give a good indication of how smart a horse is. This filly was in behind and her jockey was keeping her up to her work. He had to come wide and when he gave her a crack she fairly took off and made up the ground well. She won by a length but it was a comfortable length and that type of run makes it hard for the handicapper to crucify her. On my ratings I say she has about 8-10lb in hand of these.
There is a concern, there always is. The horses are constantly on the turn so I hope her jockey doesn't leave his finishing run too late. Dane O'Neill is a strong jockey so I'm confident he will keep her close up and then drive for home off the final bend. The fly in the ointment could be A P O'Brien's Dance on By. This beautifully bred filly has been slow to come to herself and she really could be anything. I am certain her connections are not sending her here for the day out so a small saver on her would not go amiss.
2:45 Chester
I have been waiting for the return of Bernie the Bolt and took an ante-post position on this horse for today's race. Unfortunately the draw has somewhat spoiled things because he's drawn in the car park in stall 15. I watched this horse win over inadequate trips and I was praying his connections would step him up and make use of his undoubted stamina. He is by the St. Leger winner Milan and his breeding suggested he would stay longer than the Mother in Law
When they did step him up to 18f he absolutely routed them and I have been waiting ever since! Please don't get me wrong, he is no certainty and the draw is a concern but anything around 12 is an okay price where you can take a chance.
The other horse of interest and it is only a small interest is Spring Jim. This is really off the wall because the pedigree of this horse screams sprinter and speed. Despite this the horse has performed admirably at middle distances and even came 6th behind Menorah in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham! I respect James Fanshawe so I am willing to accept his judgement if he is placing the horse in this race where he will have to travel further then ever before. You can get around the 40 mark on Betfair and anything down to around 30 is acceptable.EDIT: Sorry, it took me so long to type this that the price has moved in from 40 to 28!! It will probably drift back out a bit later
This is a tight race so I advise small stakes. One bit of bumping and your horses chance could be lost. I do prefer Bernie the Bolt but the draw for both of these horses is a concern.
I do not like the chances of Mamlook because he is a bit like an old diesel car of the 80s where the 0-60 time was closer to a minute than anything else. He generally acts like the old diesel in that he takes a while to get going and on this turning track he is going to need a lot of luck to get a clear run. His price of 10 makes him too large to lay because anything could happen and the liability is large. A lay in the place market at 2.90 looks a decent move because I feel certain he will have to trade higher in running. I don't normally bother with the place market so perhaps a match bet AvB in favour of Bernie the Bolt?
3:15 Chester
I had flagged two horses in this race, the favourite Hamish McGonagall and Sohraab with my preference being for the latter based solely on the odds. I give these two an equal chance so choosing 9.2 about Sohraab is a no brainer. In fact I would hope that 10.00 would be available later so it makes it an even easier choice. For those who don't mind playing two in a race then I wouldn't put you off the favourite.
Sohraab won this race last year and won it a shade cosily albeit from a better draw. Last year he was in 4 and this year he is in 8. However, his connections ran him in the corresponding Newbury race last year and have done so again this so they are clearly targeting the race.
Hamish McGonagall is on a decent handicap mark and ran a decent race at Beverley last time despite having an awful draw. He had some of today's rivals behind him that day and so he is a worthy favourite. The draw in 7 isn't too bad but I have another concern. I worry that the ground may be faster than advertised and if they are having the sunshine like I am getting then it may come up faster. I think this horse needs Good ground these days and I am not convinced this horse will be seen at his best on anything faster than good.
Away from Chester..
2:25 Southwell.
Two at big prices here and both of them love Southwell. I had Just Five when it won last time out. It's close to its highest winning mark but the young jockey takes 5lb off and he does get on well with the horse. This is tougher but the price of 20 is far too big. The other horse is Elusive Fame from the in form Mark Johnston yard. He owns this horse and he's close to his winning mark. He also needs Southwell so at 15 there is also some value. It's not the greatest race in the world so small stakes are advised. The race is competitive and anything could win this so there is no reason why one of these at 15 or 20 couldn't go close.
I'll try and add others later...
